Trakm8 Share Discussion Threads

[davidosh] 13/10/2015 13:54

I thought something must be behind the buying over last two days....

Re-tipped by Simon Thompson - "So although both finnCap's and my previously upgraded target price of 220p has been well and truly taken out, and the share price has risen by 28 per cent since my last recommendation to run profits at 195p three weeks ago ('Cashed up for cash returns, 22 Sep 2015), I feel there could be further share price upside to come if Trakm8 yet again beats earnings estimates. On a bid-offer spread of 240p to 245p, I would run your 166 per cent paper gain ahead of what will likely be a positive trading update alongside a bumper set of half year results in early December. Run profits."

[jmillskeel] 12/10/2015 17:40

hxxp://www.fleetnews.co.uk/news/fleet-industry-news/2015/10/12/trakm8-believes-integrated-camera-systems-are-the-future-of-telematics

[luckymouse] 09/10/2015 23:04

DL has fwd PEs of FY1 18.4 & FY2 13.1 - so as we approach yr end theoretically the mid point (ie 6mth fwd) will be c.15.75 - amazing when you consider the stellar growth.

Interims 1Dec last yr so with a hot update confirmed + the santa rally I wouldn't be surprised if the share price starts moving up to reflect next yrs earnings

[doubledown1] 07/10/2015 10:23

I just bought some more at 225p

[roper] 07/10/2015 10:05

Can't buy any electronically now...another leg up from 222.5p imminent me thinks DYOR

[pj 1] 06/10/2015 10:30

gm
So as you have been involved with a number of sale and purchase's in this sector (acquisitions)then I assume you agree it is a fragmented sector and that TRAKS acquisition plans, which are also no doubt included in the high-ish P/E rating, are probable?

[luckymouse] 05/10/2015 23:15

Tks for reply GM - im uber bullish (£3) - we'll have to shake on diff views :)

[goldenmember] 05/10/2015 17:54

I did sell out in 2014 and the logic behind the decision still stands. Unfortunately logic and AIM do not necessarily follow! Having been involved with the sale and purchase of a number of businesses in this sector my comments on earnings and multiples IMHO still stand
.

[michaelmouse] 05/10/2015 14:40

Very good discussion here re:Trakm8



Trakm8 bit is from about 6min 30secs into the recording.

[referencepoint] 05/10/2015 13:34

Guys. If you bother to look back goldenmember was very vocal about this company around March 2014, at which time he says he sold out. He explained at length why he thought the price then was way over valued. So he sold out at around 50p and over the next 18 months the price has risen 400%.
He is fully entitled to his opinion, as we all are. He was wrong then and I think he is wrong now.

[luckymouse] 05/10/2015 12:19

goldenmember - I disagree with every single line of your post :)
Sry you sold 6m ago one of the hottest stocks around perhaps?

[michaelmouse] 05/10/2015 09:37

Making new highs again this morning. Zak Mir suggests that the chart points to 240p.

[goldenmember] 05/10/2015 08:58

Quality of earning is what really matters in this space. IMHO, this Company relies far too heavily on hardware which is a commodity item in the Telematics world. The real value will come from recurring Telematics Service Revenues and TrackM8 do not have the critical mass to really compete on the global stage. This has the potential to be a typical AIM pump and dump share but if and when the current CEO gets bored and decides to sell his significant holding everything could start unravelling. If you look at other transactions in this space, nobody achieves anywhere near the multiples that this share currently trades at!

[gwr7] 28/9/2015 12:12

Ah, so it's my comments on Angle that upset you michael. Andrew Newland of Angle was fair game due to his Quindellesque share transaction and I'm more than happy to go on the attack against directors' murky dealings. After my posts there arose another good buying opportunity but again I seriously doubt I talked the share price down. I'm not an arrogant smart alec like you. Nor a fantasist. Calling me Narinder indeed. I used to think you were a man but now I see why you call yourself a mouse.

[michaelmouse] 24/9/2015 17:33

Nothing to get overly excited about, but interesting nevertheless:-



Michael.

[luckymouse] 23/9/2015 11:58

I calc fwds of 220, 264, 308

Mkt is risk off right now so MMs taking the biscuit

[gargleblaster] 22/9/2015 16:39

henry - fair enough. I was looking at the setting "rolling PE2" which is the equivalent of what Slater uses, and it includes part of the current year earnings and the balance of projected forward year earnings (taking into account that we are already part of the way through the year). He argues that it gives greater accuracy in terms of forward PE - and puts PER's on a level playing field.

[homebrewruss] 22/9/2015 16:28

I've just bought in here.
I was on a national express coach last week which broke down and when the driver radioed back to base they didn't know exactly where it was on the motorway.
This prompted me at the time to think surely there should be a GPS tracker or similar solution for this kind of problem...then a few days after I serendipitously discovered Trackm8 while looking at share ideas.

Feels like there's a great opportunity for further growth.

[henryatkin] 22/9/2015 15:59

Sharescope has EPS of 11p for next year which equates to a P/E 17.5 but that's peanuts for 100% earnings growth and an estimated 40% growth for the following year. With the UK economy being consumer driven & Euroland being stimulated I don't see much downside risk even if the financial markets do look a bit iffy. Those figures are supported by Davidosh's video message of 16% organic sales growth plus adjustments for acquisitions.

[gargleblaster] 22/9/2015 13:02

PS Sharescope has a fwd PE of 14.7 - so not sure about the 18X fwd earnings quoted in the article!

[gargleblaster] 22/9/2015 12:55

Good to see that IC are still onside!


Trakm8 hits target price

Selling by the insiders is always worth noting, but as the case of Aim-traded telematics and data provider Trakm8 (TRAK: 195p) proves, if a company's operational performance is robust, and institutional demand is strong, then it need not prove a hindrance to share price progress.

In fact, shares in Trakm8 have now hit my 200p target price even though five directors offloaded an aggregate of 1.22m shares at 157p each to a new institutional investor in the summer, a point I commented on when I reiterated my buy advice at 178p ('Hitting the right numbers', 20 Jul 2015).The shares disposed of equated to 4.2 per cent of the issued share capital, but it's worth pointing out that the insiders still own almost 40 per cent of the company.

So, having more than doubled since I first recommended buying at 92p ('Zoning in on a profitable price move', 16 Feb 2015), it's time to decide whether there's still fuel left in Trakm8's tank. I feel there is. The trading statement at the annual meeting earlier this month highlighted a 22 per cent rise in the installed base of telematic units since the March fiscal year-end, a 19 per cent increase in new orders, and a strong and growing base of recurring revenue. It's no coincidence, either, that the latest rise in the share price to an all-time high of 211p last week coincides with a Capital Markets day for analysts and investors. It clearly went well and justifiably so.

That's because I feel that the earnings risk remains firmly to the upside given the bumper sales pipeline and robust order book. Analyst Lorne Daniel at broker finnCap previously upgraded his adjusted fully diluted EPS estimate from 10.3p to 11p, based on the company delivering pre-tax profit of £3.4m in the 12 months to the end of March 2016 on revenue up from £17.9m to £25m. This implies EPS growth of 86 per cent and means the shares are currently rated on 18 times earnings forecasts. That may seem fair value, but finnCap also anticipates another step change in profit in the 2017 fiscal year, pencilling in revenue of £29.9m, pre-tax profit of £4.8m and EPS of 15.4p. On that basis, the forward PE ratio is 12.5.

Of course, there is execution risk in delivering next year's numbers, but with Trakm8's cutting-edge technology securing major contracts with insurers Marmalade and Direct Line, and in the fleet market too (Bibby and Saint Gobain), there is no reason at all to expect the growth story to grind to a halt. I would advise running profits at 195p in anticipation of a move towards finnCap's target price of 220p. Run profits.