Ft Tre Discussion Threads

[jezza123] 08/12/2011 09:35

that isn't the issue - the issue is the degree of exposure this company has to a worse case scenario of a carbon price collapse - and this seems to be the thing no-one can work out - as was mentioned earlier above there are contractual commitments here for 172million - or 69p per share - and last I looked cash was 38p and P/E investments was 39p..... meaning a worst case scenario might mean a value of 0 here guys.... but again no-one here seems to have an answer and when I asked the company I got silence.

[edwardt] 07/12/2011 15:47

well the carbon is for free and you are getting the pe portfolio 60% off!

[jezza123] 07/12/2011 10:51

and unfortunately looking at the graph - we can guess laxey are dumping even more...

[manrobert] 07/12/2011 08:12

yes laxey the last straw.i sold out at 39 for a big loss.good luck to all still holding.

[jezza123] 06/12/2011 18:19

and the bad news is even Laxey are dumping - seems to me this company may be going under - I have had a punt here - and won't sell now,despite being underwater, but it's not looking good......

[hugepants] 30/11/2011 14:47

yeah I wasn't sure about that bit but surely they must have some protection in place. Anyone know more about this?

[sharpshare] 30/11/2011 14:42

Contractual purchase commitments of GBP 172m (about 69p per share) in Note 33.2 of latest accounts for around 45m CERs. If carbon goes to zero does TRE need to cough up GBP 172m less forward sales?

[hugepants] 30/11/2011 11:41

Any ideas how to value this company?

Bearing in mind last results state another 30p per share has been wiped off the carbon portfolio as at end of october then

Cash = 38p
Private Equity = 37p
Carbon Portfolio = 18p?
Net liabilities = -3p

NAV = 90p?


Even if the carbon portfolio is worth jack then NAV still over 70p


From results to end June 2011


...At year end, and based on prevailing market prices, the Group's carbon portfolio accounted for 48.84 pence per share of the total NAV, or £122.0m as a portion of the Group's net asset value, down from £150.4m (58.41 pence per share) in 2010.

The Group's private equity investments accounted for 37.23 pence per share on 30 June 2011, or £93.0m, of the Group's net asset value. This is compared with the 30 June 2010 value of £116.4m or 45.23 pence per share.

The Group's cash position was equivalent to 38.11 pence per share, or £95.2m, down from 43.29 pence per share, or £111.4m in 2010. Of this cash balance £35.6m (2010: £34.1m) is restricted.

The combination of the carbon portfolio, investments and cash, then deducting the Group's net liabilities of 3.10 pence per share, result in the reported NAV of 121.08 pence per share....

[norbert colon] 25/11/2011 15:23

Yes its quite sickening considering their NAV way above the current price based on cash and equity portfolio. I am perhaps foolishly still holding as i honestly think value will be extracted over time - these markets are just killing everything so my general long term perspective remains my framework. I will be interested to see if any institutions make a move at these prices but again that would be tempting another 10p drop....

Good luck to all - we need it.

Nobby 3 Stiles

[jezza123] 25/11/2011 11:40

no need Norbert - carbon market is getting slaughtered. These are rapidly pricing in a carbon portfolio that is worthless.....

[norbert colon] 17/11/2011 17:05

i am staying quiet...

[manrobert] 17/11/2011 16:38

a new low.

[edwardt] 02/11/2011 11:35

very little volume is one solace - anyone know how bad the cer is or is tre now dislocated from it?

[norbert colon] 01/11/2011 18:12

yeah, I am a bad curse and will put a sock in it from now on!

[jezza123] 01/11/2011 12:22

Well done Nobby - you post and down she plummets...

[norbert colon] 01/11/2011 09:48

Albeit the extended timeframe for value realisation, if there is some hidden value here it would be good to see some stakebuilding by Major Shareholders and / or the new board going forward. I am never keen (nowadays) to just sit on a loss (which I am and a hefty one) but i really cannot see a catalyst for the share price to drop much further than where we are already (unless we get further bad news / drawn out sales. As i say I am holding and watching. Nobby

[manrobert] 01/11/2011 08:46

everone deserting the sinking ship?

[norbert colon] 31/10/2011 13:43

Guys

Any informed views on today's RNS? It seems positive in general terms (all things considered) albeit NAV has dropped further and distributions will not be as hoped (certainly as far as I am concerned).

I will hold as await further updates.

Nobby

[manrobert] 28/10/2011 06:44

any one know how yesterdays late announcement relates to tre?

[papy02] 21/10/2011 22:58

Is the value of TRE linked to the Euro?

Eg if there was Euro meltdown - say it dropped 30% against the £ and $ - would the value of carbon credits (hence TRE) stay the same in Euros hence drop 30% in £. Or would carbon credits then cost 30% more in Euros (or 1/.7 times to be exact) so TRE value should be unchanged in £. E.g. are carbon-credit prices linked to cost of oil, so the latter scenario applies.

I realise the answer is probably something between the above two extremes, but does anyone here have a view as to where? It may depend how much of the end market companies buying carbon credits operate in Euros? (but I have no idea what % that might be). Also to what extent do TRE hedge themselves?

(The reason for asking is I have a spreadbet hedging my Euro exposure on Carpathian CPT, who are distributing a large part of their value to shareholders next Weds, so I will need to reduce my hedge then. Just wondered whether I should keep some of it open as a hedge or partial hedge for TRE).

Many thanks for any views.

[papy02] 17/10/2011 21:13

manrobert - yes, I just realised year-end means June 30 in the RNS. Doh.

The Dec 12 CERs they sold forward at a price of 22 Euros if no typo in the RNS:
"0.6m CERs for December 2012 delivery for aggregate proceeds of approximately EUR13.2m"