Ft Tre Discussion Threads

[manrobert] 17/10/2011 16:18

i assume the 116p is their best guess as to the value of carbon credits at year end,it a shame they sol fwd contracts as this making them hold cash reserves to cover these contracts.maybe they got a better deal.who knows?

[papy02] 17/10/2011 12:08

Just topped up at just under 50p(after a disastrous last top up at circa 100p!).

Am I just pouring good money after bad? Answers on a postcard please (or here ;-)

Plus points

- Recent stated NAV 91p+, with estimated 116p+ at year end (not clear to me what the basis of the latter estimate is - if crystal ball we have clear evidence from the bad decisions to date that it's not working!).

- Laxey board coup to take effect in December, presumably with agreement of the other larger institutional holders, should hopefully put hot poker up the Investment Manager to realise value for shareholders.


Minus Points

- China threats to carbon-trading post Kyoto (so from 2013). But how much does that affect TRE given windup by end 2012?

- Risk carbon prices could sink further if Eurozone melts down and/or world recession takes hold?



KBC Peel Hunt have recent target of 55p, with possible upside (has anyone seen copy of this note? target seems low vs NAV? would be interested why). Their past targets do seem to have been a trailing indicator rather than forecasting the future.

[manrobert] 11/10/2011 16:46

it would be nice to think that was the new directors piling in at the close.

[papy02] 10/10/2011 11:28

Will be interesting to see whether the goalposts get moved for the Investment Adviser

From Results for the year ended 30 June 2010:

.... a performance fee of up to £10m payable on the basis of realised and received returns to the Company's shareholders of between 150 and 230 pence per share to be calculated on a linear basis.

(/gnashes teeth)

[papy02] 10/10/2011 10:42

Good to see the back of the old directors, and I'm pleased to see B-shares scheme plan (I can use capital losses, not that TRE has underperformed on that front ;-)

Manrobert - re return of cash >> share price - difficult to know what they will get for the PE portfolio, but given it's probably in the share price for nothing I would hope you're right. Guess it depends where carbon prices go from here - seem to be heavily geared to the economic outlook (as well as Chinese "threats"?).

[edwardt] 10/10/2011 10:25

good to see laxey now represented on the board. the lack of divi may hit the share price near term but the key is seeing the realisation strategy unfold over time. I hate making mistakes which this has certainly been but the key is what happens to the pe portfolio. As it is largely held at cost my fear is that with a much lower oil price, a lot of these could well be optimistically valued on the balance sheet.

[manrobert] 10/10/2011 08:34

just spoken an official at the company and it seems that big investors had wanted more action from the board in achieving cash return to shareholders and the intention is that the new directors will be moving this issue with added momentum.you have to assume that the eventual return of cash will be well above the current share price.imo.be interested in others views.

[manrobert] 10/10/2011 07:57

not sure bt !settle! but it seems to relate to the previous close.

[manrobert] 10/10/2011 07:54

well how is the market gonna react to this update.the good news appears that asset value is way above the share price but we have to wait longer to see it.hopefully patience will rewarded in time.

[papy02] 09/10/2011 16:32

Many thanks manrobert. Any idea what "Settle" is? (seems better populated than Price).

[manrobert] 09/10/2011 14:21

try.Ice product guide emissions.Last close 10.48

[manrobert] 09/10/2011 14:21

try.Ice product guide emissions.Last close 10.48

[papy02] 08/10/2011 20:12

Thanks Praipus.

I came across this - maybe explains the price weakness

[praipus] 08/10/2011 20:08

Hi Papy02 there is a carbon ETF CARB I use for a basic comparison.

I've no holding here but I noticed Laxey and QVT joining the share register.

[papy02] 08/10/2011 18:22

Hmmm ... not holding my breath (from 27 July Realisation Update):

However, the Board remains committed to the realisation process and will conclude a sale of the carbon portfolio at such time as is appropriate and anticipates being in a position to announce a material distribution to shareholders on or before the announcement of the Company's full year results in October. As previously announced, the Board is also pursuing an individual asset realisation strategy with regard to its portfolio of private equity assets.

PS: does anyone have a link they can post for current CER and EUA prices? (I seem to have lost the one I used to use)

[norbert colon] 08/10/2011 16:06

It does seem like a crazy valuation at the moment and whilst the CER market doesn't seem to know what its doing, TRE at 54p is something that 12 months ago i had definitely not foreseen. Will be interested what the IC or anyone else makes of it. My note of support at 62p can go in the bin! Nobby

[manrobert] 04/10/2011 14:45

i have a hunch that simon thompson of investors chronicle may tip this share next week based on his review of next weeks issue.just my opinion only.

[jezza123] 04/10/2011 14:18

bit of blood bath out there today - I note the price of carbon is half what is was earlier in the year. My guess is that the directors of this company were idiots not to the do the deal quickly last year.....

still, on the basis of the rest of the value of this company I bought some today
at 48.5 - hey, gotta roll the dice sometimes...

[norbert colon] 25/9/2011 03:21

Guys. Looks like some support around 60-62p and this coincides with low from March 2009? Nice to see some discussion and the recent Laxey purchase is interesting. Wonder if anyone else is taking the plunge...

[jezza123] 23/9/2011 16:38

yep that looks right - can't fault your analysis - the carbon portfolio really is being priced as near worthless then....

[stemis] 23/9/2011 16:27

From the interim accounts



The Group's cash position was equivalent to 42.31 pence per share, or £105.7 million, down from 43.29 pence per share, or £111.4 million on 30 June 2010. A significant proportion of this cash is held to pay for future deliveries of carbon and the remaining obligations to private equity investments. At the end of December 2010 approximately £30.7 million of the Company's cash was restricted to meet obligations to the World Bank for carbon delivery and an additional £30 million was expected to be spent on other carbon purchases in the following six months. Approximately an additional £39 million has been reserved for the private equity portfolio.

If £105.7m is 42.31p/share then £60.7m (£30.7m + 30m) is 24.3p

[jezza123] 21/9/2011 16:16

I have to admit all this cold calling/scamming stuff on carbon credits does look rather bad. The point at which a niche market is being sold to the great unwashed is usually the point at which it is in its death throes.

So I guess it's all about 2012 and the expiry of Kyoto - I liked your analysis Stemis, but where did you get the figure of 24.3p earmarked for carbon purchases? At the very least, one wonders if they would stop purchasing altogether.... I also agree that the current price is basically valuing the carbon portfolio as near worthless.

Sad times.

[praipus] 15/9/2011 11:30

FSA warning!

[stemis] 14/9/2011 08:43

It's Laxey. They managed to pick up 3.4 million shares and yet the price falls. There must be big seller(s) somewhere.

[norbert colon] 13/9/2011 19:07

Credit Suisse look like they have identified some value here picking up over 6m shares in the last few days. I am probably going to add as well if I can find some money from somewhere...!