Touchstone Exploration Share Discussion Threads

[gopbg] 07/6/2021 15:31

If it isn't a shareholder hedging then it has to be someone/company with a big statement or broker wouldn't have allowed the trade. Too much exposure for a casual trader. Nobody has said why Milton got out. Anyone know? Makes sense to be that it was the Norwegian company that likely locked in their sale price. ( as they have declared that they have to sell) If the sell pressure took down the price they could have made millions .Not a bad thought , it just didn't work. Something good to think about is that we have many long shareholders ,who see and believe in the future, and thus the sell pressure didn't completely collapse the stock price . It will be a no event went they close the short with their shares. Something is up . That is a big short position.

[davidblack] 07/6/2021 13:28

It may not be one person but rather a loose group that avoids consort party rules.

[thebull8] 07/6/2021 12:03

So since April shorts have increased by 3.4m shares. Our volume was around 23m for this period so short selling resulted in 15% of the activity for April and May. Incase anybody doesn't understand how shorts work - they borrow the shares from a broker. So let's say HL hold 20m shares they'll approach them and borrow the shares from them. They physically sell these into the market. So when you see these 10,000 lots of shares being sold this is most likely somebody shorting. Eventually they'll need to buy these back. The share price on 01 April was 92p. The share price today is 91p. They have sold an additional 3.4m (or 15% of the total volume for April and May) and the share price hasn't moved lol. It's going to be fun watching them try and close 9% of the total stock (more if you only use free float). Unless somebody is hedging and uses existing shareholding to cover. Should still see a nice boost up. Hang on to your shares cause it'll be fun when it happens :-)

[ashkv] 07/6/2021 11:52

It appears there is possibly a big shorter out there.

I came across the below information on the Internet re TXP an am awaiting confirmation via Euroclear that it appears the below specified outstanding of TXP shares are out on Borrow and therefore can be assumed to be "shorted" by some actor.
We should confirm and then broadcast on message boards to push for the supposed Shorts to get "burned" who are dubiously manipulating a solid firm like TXPs share price.

Hopefully my post is not removed as the actor has got the same purged from another forum I am active on...

TXP Stock on Loan from Euroclear [DISCLAIMER - AWAITING CONFIRMATION FROM EUROCLEAR]

Jan 2021____0.52%
Feb 2021____1.23%
Mar 2021____7.14% Shorts come on on bad news
Apr 2021____8.65% Price suppression
May 2021____8.79% Price suppression

[adon30] 07/6/2021 11:34

There are already signs of equipment arriving at Royston so would assume the road is ready(?). However this would need confirming by someone on the ground.
T&T lockdown is currently until 4th July but some things are progressing (slowly)

With the EIA do not expect a quick turn around of this document. It will have many parts and although probably won't have all the problems of planning applications in the UK. It is not just a case of we are going to drill here and stick a pipe here. They need to perform an environmental assessment. How much forest are they going to cut down? how many species are they going to affect? As this is fairly remote region you won't have the people requesting that the one ear flying tree newt will need rehousing to a similar environmental location... hopefully. But you get the idea....
4-6 weeks would be a good amount of time for them to get to grips with this and give an update, but we will wait and see. It does cover the entire Cascadura project and once complete can have achievable timescales attached.

I can not remember if the EIA was also going to cover Chinook (due to proximity) as this may be separate. But the condensate pipe will still run that way

[11_percent] 07/6/2021 11:33

That was some turn around.....someone whats the share price down.

[pro_s2009] 07/6/2021 08:51

Yes HBR...June. Amended it

[pro_s2009] 07/6/2021 08:46

TXP AGM : Wednesday, June 9, 2021 at 10:00 a.m. (Mountain time)

Virtual-only Meeting via live audio webcast at

How to register to attend in the link below (PDF).



.

[homebrewruss] 07/6/2021 08:45

Pro, do you mean June for Cruse results?

[pro_s2009] 07/6/2021 08:34

Hi MT.

Had that one already............waiting now for the June update.



TXP Stock on Loan from Euroclear

Jan 2021____0.52%
Feb 2021____1.23%
Mar 2021____7.14% Shorts come on on bad news
Apr 2021____8.65% Price suppression
May 2021____8.79% Price suppression

[pro_s2009] 07/6/2021 08:33

Current timescales I would estimate.

Week of 14th to 18th June - possible Chinook-1 Cruse formation test results.

Week of 5th to 9th of July - Potential operations update - impending spud of Rosyton and also possibly Cascadura timeline following the new EIA approval.

Week 12th July to 16th July - If no news before, then operations update this week with Royston spud and also possibly Casca timeline.


Given the Covid SOE currently I would expect Royston spud to be before mid-July - when actually depends on the road, the contractors rigging up, safety checks, Covid State of Emergency delays to the road.....

[mount teide] 07/6/2021 08:29

Euroclear's latest Stock on Loan(short) Report published today:

0.16% - PetroTal / (down from 0.22%)
0.19% - Jadestone Energy / (down from 0.30%)
0.59% - Savannah Energy / (down from 0.64%)
1.79% - Pantheon Resources / (up from 1.31%)
1.86% - Enquest / (down from 2.39%)
3.62% - BP / (down from 4.12%)
3.84% - Shell / (up from 2.56%)
4.79% - Cairn / (down from 5.35%)
8.79% - Touchstone Exp / (up from 8.65%)

[homebrewruss] 07/6/2021 08:25

AGM on Wednesday, maybe you can ask any questions then..

[pro_s2009] 07/6/2021 08:00

That is an interesting question. The limit is 2000 bopd, however I think this is based on a license area.....not on total production in the country.

But I am not sure if its accumulated or per development area.

Something to ask next time.

[thebull8] 07/6/2021 07:55

The royalty is included within the netback figures so the percentage wouldn't change. There is SPT when oil is more than $75 and production is higher... can't remember actual number

[sleveen] 07/6/2021 07:48

Probably higher royalty to take account of so perhaps $24/bll?

[thebull8] 07/6/2021 07:47

Although I would be surprised if there is a direct correlation between profit margin and oil price. One would assume the profit margins would be higher on higher oil prices

[thebull8] 07/6/2021 07:46

If oil is $59 and TXP make netback of $22 per barrel the net profit margin is 37%. Using the same profit margins netback on $70 oil is around $26 per barrel. 1300 bopd = $12.3m 2000 bopd = $18.9m

[pro_s2009] 07/6/2021 01:21

Also, new Covid cases have topped out and starting to drop in Trinidad.

So hopefully July 4th will see the State of Emergency ending - so the new rig can ship from Canada in July.

Hopefully start popping some wells into the South West oilfields in October. Million dollars each well....end the year at 2000 bopd oil production all being well, 1200bopd from existing + 800 bopd new.


With 22$ netback at 59$ oil price.........be interesting what the netback is now with a 70$ oil price. Certainly the cash flowing into the bank will be very much more than when the oil price was 59$.

Should be worth around another million US$ per year in real terms on the current oil production (or 500K US$ more for H2 2021 if oil stays around 70$).

[pro_s2009] 06/6/2021 22:46

AFAIK they will have a timeline end of June.... So I am expecting a Casca update late June or early July.

If there will be around 3 months of work on the EIA........then the timeline might be :

July 1st - resources in place and Cascadura project plan done.

July-Aug-Sep - prepare and submit Cascadura EIA.

Oct - decision on EIA and any amendments needed.

By November all approvals should be in place - Covid restrictions done and all over - full speed ahead.

So by end of Q1 22 we should have Cascadura online imo.

[adon30] 06/6/2021 21:45

‘The Company is expecting to receive the requirements for the EIA on May 28, 2021.’

Need to read the rns. PB never said that it would be understood by then. Just that they’d receive what is required of them.

‘ While this will initially delay the project, it will bring predictable and clear timelines for Cascadura operations moving forward. The Company will provide further information on anticipated timing of the EIA as it becomes available.’

As it’s only been 5 working days that’s hardly a frustrating timescale.

[gopbg] 06/6/2021 20:40

My Guess, Bad news on how much time will be needed to get thru environmental permit on Cascadura. "75% chance to have cash flow in 2021 " is looking more like 0 % chance . Somebody has to to the boring paperwork to get permits issued so work can get started. PB said that he would have the definitive task understood at Cascadura after May 28th. Guess that was an optimistic date again. Frustrated with management not meeting dates and then acting like the date was never stated.

[gopbg] 06/6/2021 20:11

Management is going to have to get some operational tasks completed before confidence is restored. Are you kidding me ...COHO discovered in Aug 2019 and we likely won't have cash flow from this discovery for two years. COVID or NOT , First pipeline on island in 20 years or NOT, Somebody not spending time on doing the basics to not get a less than 2 mile pipeline hooked up in 24 months. But what do I know I'm apparently an impatient investor that has been listening to this story for 10 years .