Touchstone Exploration Share Discussion Threads

[hari] 24/2/2019 21:24

Excuse the typoAutocorrect having a mare In that respect the company announce that due to crude price volatility they have ‘held back from recommencing our development drilling programme’ and will drill only based on the ‘prevailing’ commodity marketI just do not buy that excuse ... oil has been volatile but has moved back up The Co have been talking up this drilling program ... wonder why now Placing and drop the idea with a lame reason The placing is not at a small discount I am sure price was nearer 20p when Placing was being negotiated It is the reason for the drop . Even when oil started recovering the it was being sold into Cash in bank , but yes with creation of dilution ...let's hope the cash hits oil or it will fall back again

[spangle93] 24/2/2019 20:09

"the future is in hold as drooling has been suspended?"??

Try sitting with food in front of a golden retriever, then you'll know it's not a true statement

[ileeman] 24/2/2019 19:30

Have you been living under a rock? I assume you do not look at oil price then.

Oil dropped and in turn so did TXP although you can clearly see the drop has been overdone as is the norm on AIM.

More money in the bank with cornerstone backing at basically no discount is a very good outcome for shareholders, shareraises are looked down upon due to retail involvment/flippers and large discounts TXP did neither.

Newest interview states production hit 2100bodp + Ortoire soon, happy days....fundamentals improving, oil moving back up, shareprice will follow at some point.

[hari] 24/2/2019 18:05

ILeeman"Although unexpected I am actually quite pleased at the raise, a very good price and cornerstone investors involved which provides a very nice safety net."really One you have been talking this up as it began falling from 20p to 10.5pAll this additional oil to come online in the future is in hold as drooling has been suspended Then you are pleased with a placing when you did but expect one in the first place Are you wearing rose tinted glasses or just cannot be objective because you to justify your investment even as the share price kept falling It is where it is because the Co needed to raise funds as ppl in know drive it down ... nothing knew really

[mount teide] 23/2/2019 22:55

Energy Sector Research Data - Weekly 'Numbers Report' - OilPrice.Com Subscription Article so just a few snippets:


'OPEC+ cuts could push market into deficit:

* OPEC produced around 30.8 million barrels per day in January, down 880,000 bpd from a month earlier and down 1.5 mb/d from the November peak, according to Standard Chartered.
* Saudi Arabia has pledged to cut another 0.5 mb/d by March. That alone should be enough to eliminate the surplus.
* “We forecast that the oil market will move into a deficit of over 500kb/d in February and March, with the call on OPEC crude rising while output falls,” Standard Chartered concluded.
* Standard Chartered sees Brent prices moving back to $70 per barrel in the relatively near future.

Oil supply outages at highest level in years:

* Not only are the OPEC+ cuts slated to erase the supply surplus, but a series of unplanned outages are also tightening the oil market.
* Libya, Nigeria, Venezuela and Iran have all seen unscheduled outages. Canada cut production to rescue prices in the face of midstream bottlenecks. The volume of unexpected supply disruptions is arguably at its highest rate in years.
* “Angola and Mexico continue to over-comply due to lack of investments causing natural decline,” JP Morgan added in a report.
* These latest supply outage figures do not even include the unfolding rapid declines in Venezuela, nor do they include the deteriorating situation in Iran.
* JP Morgan argues that the markets are “not pricing in the risk premiums associated with such events fairly.” '

[sleveen] 23/2/2019 11:36

rossannan 23 Feb '19 - 01:25 - 3857 of 3859

Pretty fair summary IMV.

[ileeman] 23/2/2019 11:02

Think they are just thumbing down you in general, either you are deramping or taking sly shots or ramping TRIN haha

Back on topic

Although unexpected I am actually quite pleased at the raise, a very good price and cornerstone investors involved which provides a very nice safety net.

Another point which no one has touched on, we know TXP is significantly undervalued compared to peers and even more so with Ortoire coming up one reason for this is because the company is so far off the radar. I understand most of the raise was through institutions but a small portion did get allocated to retail investors which could actually help bring the company on the map and spread awareness.

Oil trending higher with production now at an all time high of 2100 bopd and growing, no doubt Ortoire will see the excitment return over the next few months.

[spangle93] 22/2/2019 13:02

Thanks MT, rossannan for your views

[mount teide] 22/2/2019 13:01

TRIN's 2018 field decline rate: they had every man and his brother on the bellows last year to combat field declines, carrying out;

17 RCP's and 143 well work-overs!

[mount teide] 22/2/2019 11:43

Spangle - TRIN does currently have a lower breakeven price - although the cash generation seems to suggest a higher price than management claim

I sold 75% of my 1.6 million TRIN holding post the huge cash raise and reinvested it mostly in JSE and TXP(for the Ortoire high impact upside).

Brent now at $67.5 - with JSE's Montara oil price hedge and regional $2.5/bbl premium to Brent; they should currently be averaging 72.25/bbl on Montara's 10,000 bopd production.

With an operating cost of circa $22/bbl - by my maths the Montara field should currently be generating $50+/bbl of operating cash flow / $15 million /month.

Applying a target of 84% field uptime rate for 2019 - that suggests a potential annual operating cash flow of $151.2 million at $67.5 Brent and average production of 10,000 bopd - not too shabby for an asset that cost $81 million net!

[ileeman] 22/2/2019 11:33

Oil continues to break into new weekly highs.

[spangle93] 22/2/2019 11:04

Hi Rossannan

I don't hold/follow TRIN, though naturally it's interesting to know what they are doing. I totally understand your last statement, which also is true for RRL and CERP.

Just wondered if you'd time to elaborate on
"TRIN and TXP are quite different propositions with TXP clearly being the higher risk / higher reward play and significantly more geared to the oil price."

e.g. does TRIN have a lower breakeven price?

[lauders] 22/2/2019 10:40

Malcy made some comment on the recent TXP news that I missed. Haven't visited his blog for a while. Nothing new, but not exactly "talking excitedly" about TXP:

Touchstone Exploration

Touchstone has raised £3.8m at 12p per share, a discount of only 4% to fund the drilling of an exploration well in the Corosan West region of its Ortoire property (80% WI) in Q2. It is clear that the company is concentrating on drilling the really big prospects and those with a minimum tax obligation if successful which is certainly wise.

In that respect the company announce that due to crude price volatility they have ‘held back from recommencing our development drilling programme’ and will drill only based on the ‘prevailing’ commodity market. Again the use of cash flow is to be carefully monitored and money raised will be for the transformational prospects such as at Ortoire.

[ileeman] 22/2/2019 07:56

Find it hillarious ros comes on this thread and ramps TRIN every other day lol

On another note, HAYD yet another example how hard it is to raise at a good price in this macro climate.