Touchstone Exploration Share Discussion Threads

[ileeman] 17/1/2019 21:07

He said in recent interview if all goes well they can easily add 10000 barrels a day production from these fields ontop of current production.

If that is not transformational for a £15million company I dont know what is lol

Great news today, great operational update earlier in the week...oil price holding expect it will break higher soon enough.

Price not reflecting fundamentals, opportunity.

[red rook] 17/1/2019 18:54

..'So a 50% uplift if the best estimate resources are converted to 2p reserves.' - That's good, but is it 'Transformational'as suggested by PB!
..'The above confirms Ortoire is a good addition to TXP.' - Agreed, but is it 'Transformational'!
..'There is also the chance the high estmate comes in, which would mean $300m extra NPV..' That may be Transformational, but what is the COS for that!

[mr. t] 17/1/2019 18:01

ZENGAS, thank you for the further clarification.

On a net risked basis, Ortoire adds about 9.2 mmboe best estimate resources to TXP's 18.5 mmboe 2p reserves on 31/12/17. So a 50% uplift if the best estimate resources are converted to 2p reserves.

TXP's 2P post tax NPV10 was $157m in the 31/12/17 reserves report. The Ortoire best case net risked NPV10 is $108m, so a 60% uplift. The Ortoire report has a more aggressive price curve (e.g. $73 Brent in 2020 cf. $69 in the 31/12/17 reserves report) so the % NPV increase is a little less than 60% in reality.

The above confirms Ortoire is a good addition to TXP. There is also the chance the high estmate comes in, which would mean $300m extra NPV - an outcome that would surely lead to a big rerate if TXP keeps a high ownership stake.

I'm still surprised by the low recovery factors though.

[zengas] 17/1/2019 15:51

In place is what is estimated to be there.

Unrisked is the amount they estimate to recover on low-mid-high basis if all parameters met that they are using to work from.

It's then risked for a percentage of that.

[mr. t] 17/1/2019 15:42

Buffy, thanks for your comments. You're right it is 93bcf gas, not sure where my 84 came from.I think I'm comparing unrisked in place vs. unrisked recoverable, which is why I think the data infers recovery factors of

[ileeman] 17/1/2019 15:23

"This independent prospect evaluation provides confirmation that the prospects that have been identified by the Touchstone team are of a significant size and provide an excellent opportunity for a step change in reserves, production and net asset value of the Company"

[buffythebuffoon] 17/1/2019 14:30

Aside from the fact I made it 93bcf of gas gross, are you looking at unrisked in place v risked recoverable?

Buffy

[mr. t] 17/1/2019 09:12

Although I'm no longer a holder, I'm still interested in TXP. The Ortoire independent report has lower numbers that I expected - am I missing something?

Adding together unrisked gross contingent and prospective resources in the announcement today, the best case is about 9 million barrels of oil, 84 bcf gas gross, and 2.7 million barrels of natural gas liquids - or about 27.25 million BoE total.

In comparison, the Nov 18 slides on the website have P50:

Herrera gas in place - 40 bcf shallow + 32 bcf deep
Balata oil in place - 74 million barrels North + 361 million barrels South
Ortoire Central gas in place - 440 bcf

If those figures are still true, that would give a recovery factor of <20% for gas <5% for oil. That's surely too low?

Have I made an error in the numbers or calculations?

[ileeman] 17/1/2019 08:59

Yes posted one of the key points.

Added a few more this morning, CEO stated drilling will start Q2.

With the report today the company is significantly derisked, valuation is way off by the market.

[lauders] 17/1/2019 08:49

During the online presentation there was a great bit where something along the lines of "The issues is not finding oil in T&T it is finding out how much you find". If that applies to Ortoire, which the comment would seem to imply, then that is nice. The independent valuation looks very positive for large quantities.

[spangle93] 17/1/2019 08:34

iLeeman - ref 3628 - I think you pulled the most important nugget from a dense document.

AIUI It's pretty much saying that for this category, the only risk is not getting a licence. Obviously I haven't seen the data that they have considered, but that chance is higher than most development wells that are drilled around the world, so I think it's optimistic. Nonetheless, it's pretty comforting that an independent group states that a number of these Ortoire structures are at least appraisal wells, if not development wells.

[mount teide] 17/1/2019 08:07

S/P relative performance - 2018 summer high to end of December oil price drop lows:

-56% / TRIN (27p doen to 12.0p) - plus 40% dilution
-45% / TXP (21p down to 11.5p) - no dilution

[lauders] 17/1/2019 07:58

Looks great news to me. As I said, current price is a buying opportunity. If it doesn't react to the news today an even better chance!

[ileeman] 17/1/2019 07:56

Only 95% chance of commerciality on some of the targets lol

Add that on to 2000 production already....

£15mil mcap

[ileeman] 17/1/2019 07:54

Big news out.

Summary of Total Company Interest Contingent Resources (Development Pending)(5)(6)(8)(9)(10)

The following table summarizes GLJ's estimate of the Risked Recoverable Volumes associated with the Company's Contingent Resources (Development Pending) including Light and Medium Oil, Residue Gas, Natural Gas Liquids, and Oil Equivalent for the Company's Ortoire exploration prospects. For the Company's Contingent Resources, GLJ estimated the Chance of Commerciality of these targets to be 95.0%.

"This independent prospect evaluation provides confirmation that the prospects that have been identified by the Touchstone team are of a significant size and provide an excellent opportunity for a step change in reserves, production and net asset value of the Company. Proving this geological model could be monumental for Touchstone and Trinidad as it will set up a multi year exploration and development program."

[lauders] 17/1/2019 01:07

Of course you could just filter rossannan as I have done and then you would just see 25 blank "contributions". That is annoying too I must admit but better than reading what is on view if the filter is inactive.

After listening to the presentation and PB's answers to the questions I have no concern about the 2000 bopd target not being sustained. Clear reasons, sensible too, were provided. IMHO the future looks very bright here and if I had sufficient spare funds I would be topping up at these levels. By the end of the year I would hope such action would turn out to have been very profitable.

One of the things I like most about PB is that he is clear that he DOES not want to dilute shareholders by implementing a placing or some funding raising to dilute the debt TXP currently shows on its books. He appears to be looking after shareholders and that is a big tick in my book! Happy to hold and add when possible!

[captainfatcat] 16/1/2019 23:18

rossannan it seems to me that if you *had* listened to MT (along with many others here) you wouldn't have been proved wrong and lost your bet.

I don't know why you so are hung up on MT the guy has posted 3 times on the bb so far this year and they were just links from oil/opec related content so he is hardly ramping and talking his own book.

Your good self on the other hand have graced us with 25 enlightening posts this year so far 9 of which make reference to MT!

Let it go dude being a troll is not cool.