Touchstone Exploration Share Discussion Threads

[dunderheed] 02/8/2024 07:29

S 37815, for sure but regardless of whether we do or don't, the timing of this could have been better?
The BoD should have concentrated on getting the cash cow up and running and I think over rated themselves with their "track record" of successful discoveries. The initial strategy here was to re-drill previous hc discovery wells, NOT complicated and nothing new. They had success with Casca and perhaps thought they had discovered the hidden chalice when they should have just concentrated on getting that to production. This is something I have always stated and as time progressed seems to have gained more support (God knows why, it was bloody obvious).
I think the main point being, is that TXP "management" have proven time and again they are lacking in all sorts of areas, (which is especially concerning considering how many there are and how much they get paid) before buying (with OUR shares) more assets that they can potentially waste time and resources on, inefficiently trying to get them to add more value.
All IMHO, DYOR.

[herman007] 02/8/2024 07:28

I believe they have recommended it already. As for TXP: They would not have been in this situation if the share price had not sunk to these ridiculous levels.

[sirmark] 02/8/2024 07:09

What utter rubbish, we made an offer that was agreed and a rival bid has come in... there's no board in the world could have made any difference and the TRIN BOD have a duty to validate the bid in the interest of their stockholders this is now ongoing and they may even reject the offer if indeed it leads to a recomendation by the BOD. Let's see how this plays out as we may well end up getting the bid over the line.

[herman007] 02/8/2024 06:16

It is fine that they lost the Trin acquisition, but it is yet another failure by management. This would never have happened if they had a little bit focus on short term value creation and less focus on cheap options. It also reflects the Trin boards lack of confidence in management.

[sirmark] 01/8/2024 21:19

Just on holiday mate back next week :)

[johnoxxx] 01/8/2024 15:13

You’ve said peak production but then not put peak production figures… also did you forget about the peak liquid flow rates at 70$ bbl..

You’ve stated the gross cost of the well not net to TXP, but even so yes for what they’ve produced so far that’s great..

You’re not invested, you said you wouldn’t buy even below 30p, so why you here, out of the good of your heart saving everyone else? Or more likely someone trying to short the share (doubt that) or annoyed you missed buying before today? Who knows?

[dunderheed] 01/8/2024 13:05

Where is Sirmark he's normally posting a "few" level 2 posts, ahem?!

[johnoxxx] 01/8/2024 12:41

Gas price isn’t a bad price, and minimal OPEX off that. I like that you mentioned the cost of drills which are ultra cheap and paid off very very quickly - good point you make!

Infrastructure in place/almost complete (already paid for up to ~140mmscfd at cas, also facility at coho) to handle huge volumes of gas and liquids ready for future cas wells.

They have not raised recently… plenty of cash being thrown off and also more to come with hookup of cas 2 and 3. Then drilling starts on further development of cas!

Looking good.

[ashkv] 01/8/2024 11:56

haha - these rampers...

Pls review prior RNS for the relatively low fixed price per unit of gas that TXP receives for Cascadura gas and the cost of the drills and the processing facility...

Also review how many times TXP has come to market recently with equity raises... clearly a firm that is not self funding...

Outright falsities being spewed by this ramper.

Johnoxxx1 Aug '24 - 12:51 - #37806
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Ashkv always gives everyone a good laugh, Cascadura got no gas apparently but two wells have paid their costs 3x over months ago…

[dunderheed] 01/8/2024 11:51

I like consistency, I do me and, so what naffs me off is the "reinvention" of TXP as a gas company yet we headline report consistently, on BOE equivalent.
These are not good comparisons when looking at relative netbacks, IMHO.
It's still potentially nicely profitable though.

[johnoxxx] 01/8/2024 11:51

Ashkv always gives everyone a good laugh, Cascadura got no gas apparently but two wells have paid their costs 3x over months ago…

Cas 2 and 3 still on schedule, with them online will speed up drilling further. Price very cheap hence the rise today on decent news.

[dunderheed] 01/8/2024 11:46

37802. Fair point? I suppose it still possiblly could with 2 wells coming onstream early September, a third later in year and flush flow high initial rates?
(Clown) history tells me though, that is unlikely IMHO.

[ashkv] 01/8/2024 11:46

I have been conveying the reservoir issue regarding Coho since end 2022 (go back and review my TXP posts)!!!

The same reservoir underperformance versus what was forecast/modeled has unfortunately come to pass for Cascadura..

As it sadly turns out Paul Bay is the only reservoir full of gas in the case of TXP...

sleveen1 Aug '24 - 12:28 - #37801
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askkv

"I do hope I am off base but TXP is a high risk venture given the Cascadura reservoir issues/unknowns and for the moment a trading share!!"


You are and TXP isn't.

[ashkv] 01/8/2024 11:39

TXP SHARE PRICE-> 36.00p
TXP share price vs 52 Week low of 29.5p on 29 July 24-> 22.03%
TXP share price vs 52 Week High of 94.5p on 7 Aug 23-> -61.90%
Brent-> $81.60
Shares Outstanding (From FY 2023 Update)-> 234,213,000
Market Cap (GBP)-> £84,316,680
GBPUSD-> 1.28
Market Cap (USD)-> $107,925,350
Production Average Q2 2024-> 5,432
Production Average Q1 2024-> 7,015
Production Average Q4 2023-> 8,504
2024 Mid-Guidance For Production (9100 to 9700 boe/d)-> 9,400
2024 Year End Exit Production Guidance-> 14,500
Net Debt (Q1 2024 Results RNS)-> $27,621,000
Enterprise Value or EV (USD)-> $135,546,350
EV / Per Barrel (USD) Q2 2024 Avg Production-> $24,953
EV / Per Barrel (USD) Q1 2024 Avg Production-> $19,322
EV / Per Barrel 2024 Mid-Guidance For Production-> $14,420
EV / Per Barrel 2024 Year End Exit Production Guidance-> $9,348
2P Reserves (Boe) Year End 2023-> 67,379,000
EV/2P-> $2.01

[ashkv] 01/8/2024 11:38

Assuming no further declines and August production remains at current level of 5711 boe/d

From 1 September to 31 December 2024 TXP would require to have a minimum average production of 15,114 boe/d to meet 2024 Minimum guidance of 9,100 Boe/d

[sleveen] 01/8/2024 11:28

askkv

"I do hope I am off base but TXP is a high risk venture given the Cascadura reservoir issues/unknowns and for the moment a trading share!!"



You are and TXP isn't.

[dunderheed] 01/8/2024 11:28

37799, he he lol.

[ashkv] 01/8/2024 11:20

I am not in TXP and I don't even intend to re-enter at sub 30p

How in hades is this RNS being interpreted as positive.

The Cascadura decline versus Q1 is stupendous - and that Cascadura production is up 15-20% one month post a 7 day recompletion (how much did this cost?) is not indicative of "stabilization"

I foresee another equity raise at minimum - the drills are expensive and with the decline rates and cheap gas prices the initial higher flow rates certainly don't pay for the wells.

H1 results will convey the same.

Also alarmed that full year guidance remains so!!! What does that convey about the trustworthiness of this management?

I do hope I am off base but TXP is a high risk venture given the Cascadura reservoir issues/unknowns and for the moment a trading share!!!

Also no mention of Coho-1 current production!!!

[awise355] 01/8/2024 11:20

Good post.

[che7win] 01/8/2024 10:55

We should never have fallen below 40p, the model for Cascadura is derisked....Cheap production, first flow of production pays for well, then very long tail of production for years to come.I don't think we can expect share price to stay this cheap for long....

[awise355] 01/8/2024 10:25

Let's hope these are conviction buys

[awise355] 01/8/2024 09:54

With production I would say now stabilised at a reasonable rate until the new wells come online, and the ability to successfully perform re-completions on existing wells (twice they have now done that on Deep) then this should move back to the 40's.What are the expectations on the 2 wells, if they produce from both zones then we could have significantly more initial production than the first 2...

[awise355] 01/8/2024 09:44

Market waking up