Touchstone Exploration Share Discussion Threads

[kaos3] 17/5/2024 15:35

well, today i am a buyer of txp...

[leoneobull] 17/5/2024 12:03

Holding up as well as hzm. We'll done Pro!

[dunderheed] 17/5/2024 09:56

Yes, I can see the (Clown is a) "genius" comments coming - for the takeover of TRIN timed perfectly to offset the incompetence of the TXP OPS team. Lol!
Seriously though, I am kind of hopeful they will get these wells onstream within a reasonsble time frame - near to their guidances. They can't keep on under delivering on their own self imposed timelines can they?!
As ever all IMHO and DYOR!!

[eggchaser] 17/5/2024 09:55

Agreed and is how I see it too 11pc.I'll keep my powder dry for now but a drop into the 20's will see me enter again - no idea if it will reach that low but the way people are off loading means it's a possibility.

[11_percent] 17/5/2024 09:49

Its a bit of a "Classic"......lower lows and lower highs.

No long term support on the graph.



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That latest low.....at 40.5 has gone.....now 33.0.

Last 3 days has been a mini "waterfall."

There is no support on the graph......will need to find a level where it can consolidate......similar to all previous falls.

In general.....the falls through the support levels have been on news....RNS or presntations.



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There has been talk here that the 2 new wells at Casc C pad will in production in 3 months.
This will NOT HAPPEN.
We will be lucky to have then producing in 6 months....and more like 9 months.
Thus will give ample opportunity for share price to decline more.

[kaos3] 17/5/2024 09:09

proportions

would be great to know

cracks vs sand

[sleveen] 17/5/2024 07:51

It's Cas Deep that the main production decline culprit.

Using Q4/Q1 production figures and the pie charts in the MG&A gives

Cas1 Q4 27MM/d declines to Q1 24.5MM/d circa 10% decline/qtr, whereas

Cas Deep Q4 10.2MM/d declines to 6.4MM/d circa 37% decline.

Using those decline rates (reasonable in my view) for Q2 production gives

Cas1 22MM/d and CD 3.8MM/d giving 25.8 for Q2, which is a little above April's figure suggesting CD has declined more quickly.

As Johnxxx suggests those figures particularly from Cas1 @20MM/d potentially for Q2 are highly cash generative giving around $4.5M in revenue for Cas1 alone.

[aqc888] 16/5/2024 21:03

TXP and Trinity are both struggling with the less than ideal geological challenges of drilling in Trinidad. They’re also both struggling with the less than ideal AIM index which has performed appallingly. Something which is in their favour, and often overlooked, is that Trinidad is a very stable and extraordinary oil friendly jurisdiction, encouraging and lowering taxes for oil companies.

[johnoxxx] 16/5/2024 19:42

If the wells (excluding cas deep due to damage) can start high and stable out at 15mmscfd+ that will be great (the disappointment is due to higher expectations) and that’s fair enough. But they are still very very good wells and huge cash flows from them once we have several up and running. Just simply means we need a few more wells. And as more come on stream the drilling speeds up. I can see why share price has dropped recently - think everyone can! However it does seem cheap now, so instead of listening to people talking their agenda run the numbers and then make your own decision. Have a look at the cash flow (even on a conservative basis) and compare it to the market cap that should give a good indicator of how low share price is currently.

[awise355] 16/5/2024 19:27

Decline rate is circa 45% from early September to end of April.

[johnoxxx] 16/5/2024 19:19

The gold mine,that’s wrong, you’re comparing net and gross figures.

60mmscfd was gross, 25.5mmscfd is net.

[boystown] 16/5/2024 18:03

This looks like good contrarian value to me - but I admit I'm a bit out of depth and heavily reliant on the analysis of Simon Thompson (whose latest TRIN article seemed to make sense to me).

But at 48.9p, TRIN is still slightly cheaper IF the takeover is proceed, of course, as seems likely.

[the_gold_mine] 16/5/2024 17:36

The bad news is evident for all to see, Cascadura has approx 57% decline rate in 7 months of production:-

RNS dated 18 Sep 2023: target rate of 60MMcf/d achieved at Cascadura

RNS dated 14 May 2024: In April 2024...Cascadura field contributed...natural gas sales volumes of 25.4 MMcf/d

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These decline rates seem to be as bad as shale wells?

The major risk here is

a) Delays prevent the new 2x Cascadura wells coming online in Q3
b) The 2x new Cas wells have lower IP than Cas ST-1 and ST-Deep and similar declines

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TXP has long and consistent form of delivering projects much later than expected and disappointing well performance (Royston-1 ? Coho-1? Both Cascadura wells?)

The only regular wall of cash anyone is seeing is Paul Baay's as he picks up his unjustified salary, the shareholders are seeing nothing but a wall of bad news.

[galarse] 16/5/2024 16:42

Changed his name and dribbling on some other BB

[leoneobull] 16/5/2024 16:31

Pro, where are you hiding?

[ashkv] 16/5/2024 15:01

Debt reduced... that is a clear fallacy - clearly TXP need to drill drill drill...
Where are the returns for shareholders?

I have a bridge to sell you great bargain ->
They could have used this update to revise full year guidance, but didn't.
So expected to have prediction fixed at 14500 boe/d maintained.

[che7win] 16/5/2024 14:52

Nice try, The operations is throwing off 6 million, expenditure was 12m as we successfully drilled three wells, acquisition related costs and construction if flow lines.Debt reduced in relation to funds flow and they will balance growth expenditures through out rest of year.They could have used this update to revise full year guidance, but didn't.So expected to have prediction fixed at 14500 boe/d maintained.

[ashkv] 16/5/2024 14:27

Really - where is all this cash going? With the higher guidance / production TXP net debt was guided to be the same as Q1 or only up marginally at YE 2024!!!

Cash for Years to come - check out the Coho decline rates - more so April 2024 vs Q1 2024!!!

I shudder to envision YE Net Debt with FY 2024 production even below the low end of guidance range!!!

And nice try at the con with Holding RNS :) The RNS with the holding figures are in relation to the TRIN offer as mandated by the merger rules!!!

che7win16 May '24 - 14:11 - 37443 of 37445
0 1 0
More new holder RNSs, and my last purchase timing looks good.

These wells pay for themselves in 3 months, then just throw out cash for years to come.
Two more coming onstream in Q3,

[sleveen] 16/5/2024 14:21

We've had a selling begets selling phase, now how about a buying begets buying phase?

[78steve] 16/5/2024 14:13

Not here or there with this company

[che7win] 16/5/2024 14:11

More new holder RNSs, and my last purchase timing looks good.These wells pay for themselves in 3 months, then just throw out cash for years to come.Two more coming onstream in Q3,

[spawny100] 16/5/2024 14:07

Whatever John. You've always been a permabull on this with never a word against it and I'm not sure what it would take for you to change your mind.

[johnoxxx] 16/5/2024 13:58

Capitulation coming as in throwing off the most cash they ever have?

Yes the decline rates have been higher than expected but still very profitable wells, with two more waiting to come online and also 2 coora wells.

Everyone can see why the share price has dropped but I personally think at these levels it’s overdone. When the market decides it’s done is different however if people run the numbers and see it as a good buy at current share price then I can see why they’re topping up.

Capitulation coming is a very silly comment.

[che7win] 16/5/2024 13:52

Yes, very pleased, the 2175 trade is mine.Not pleased about the fall, but then, with two Wells in Cascadura (really 1.5 wells) producing 20m cash in 7 months, and two more which should perform better, I'm glad to be gifted a silly price

[spawny100] 16/5/2024 13:46

Very pleased? With your paper losses?This share looks like capitulation coming. Be careful and don't listen to rampers who say they're buying at a bargain price when they're actually selling....