Touchstone Exploration Share Discussion Threads

[homebrewruss] 14/5/2024 09:16

Not everyone would have seen Malcys recent post and seeing the actual net production figures in black and white for April is not pretty.

[eggchaser] 14/5/2024 09:16

Che7 that's my take on events here too.Thanks to those who provided the RNS...

[kaos3] 14/5/2024 08:58

but i still do not undestand why would additional perforation not result in increased production after the clean up, having good sands and NOT A POCKET

there is more to it than just high pressure/high decline rate due to the fractures

they explained just one part unknown in the equation with more unknowns

[kaos3] 14/5/2024 08:56

fractures explain high pressure and bursts at drilling and high decline

[11_percent] 14/5/2024 08:54

Coho continues to disappoint.


· Coho net average natural gas sales volumes were 2.6 MMcf/d or 426 boe/d at a realized price of $2.28 per Mcf (excluding third party processing fees); and

[11_percent] 14/5/2024 08:46

S93,

Cheers, I think I have got it.

[11_percent] 14/5/2024 08:42

I wonder if we will get a presentation from PB.

[spangle93] 14/5/2024 08:40

11_percent

Not sure I fully understand your question, but let me try again. I think maybe it's confusing with natural and man-made fractures.

With a dual poroperm system, you initially get flush production from any natural fractures that intersect the well (and as a sidebar, can make drilling more challenging, which MIGHT explain some of the problems they've experienced), because flow through a natural open fracture is effectively close to infinite permeability. But this high initial production is time-limited, because ultimately flow out of the fracture into the well has to be balanced by flow from the matrix into the fracture, and matrix permeability is orders of magnitude lower than infinity.

If you create a man-made propped fracture, it puts an artificial high permeability channel into the reservoir. This would have 2 areas where there could be benefits - this hydraulic fracture could intersect more natural fractures, thus extending the period of higher initial flow, but it also massively increases the area of the reservoir directly in contact with the well. Granted the matrix flow will still be slower than the fracture flow, but it will come from a much greater effective surface.

[leoneobull] 14/5/2024 08:37

New 52 week low? Gla

[onedayrodders] 14/5/2024 08:36

Anyone remember that "Wall of cash"

[11_percent] 14/5/2024 08:28

S93,

Are you saying they are going ......."to more fractures and/or increase the ultimate base rate by fracture stimulation."

But not.

Not "frack" the wells.

Cheers.

[kaos3] 14/5/2024 08:24

ok - it is not a pocket .... two oil gas hands must know.

why i used that term .... because i envisioned deltaic origin and how swirls formed circular structures and entrapments.

and when i looked at their sesmics profiles ... layers were not exactly as it is in a cake.

so for a lack of knowledge i used a term pocket.

[redartbmud] 14/5/2024 08:09

che7

Good analysis.
Thanks.

red

[spangle93] 14/5/2024 08:09

Strange - normally a dual porosity/permeability system would be evident from post-drilling well tests. Instead there was a statement that I can't recall exactly to the end that no boundaries had been observed in the test, which some on discord latched onto as meaning there would be a low decline rate.

It seems odd that this (current!) interpretation was not observed in any of the other Herrera wells that produce on the island, otherwise I'm sure they (and GLJ!!) would have looked for this behaviour in carrying out analysis of the well tests, or when confidently defining development plans. Perhaps it is unique to Cascadura? Despite advances in computing and displays, pressure transient analysis is an art open to interpretataion. As noted, production logging tools would have identified that flow was only coming from a few intervals across the entire perforations, and thereby given a hint.

But it's not a pocket ;-)

So now the plan seems to be to try to intersect more fractures and/or increase the ultimate base rate by fracture stimulation. It won't change the dual system, but hopefully for a higher cost/well it will give a higher initial rate (or longer plateau) and a higher matrix production rate, because by creating the fracture, more of the sand is effectively communicating directly with the well.

Before anyone says "horizontal well"...No. Not in a thick stack of sands and silts. But if they can define the fractures, they could drill deviated wells, which would be cheaper than fracs but not improve things by as much.

[johnoxxx] 14/5/2024 08:09

Spawny likely correctly shot down as the acquisition began back in Nov/dec 2023 when cas rates were much higher.

I can’t see they’re being a strong positive reaction by any means, probably lose the rise we’ve had over last couple of days. However agree with others if production does level off at rates close to April figures then still very profitable and also doesn’t change the overall picture vastly: just a few extra was required (if all produce like A) however your hope as the knowledge and drilling improves so do the rates. For me it just extends the timeline again to the 200mmsfd, it appears cas is a vast resource we just need to nail extracting it👍

And due to the wells being so cheap (relatively) I wouldn’t mind if they do cost a little more in future if it means they nail them, which actually probably reduced cost overall as hopefully less side tracks as they learn!

Was also glad they reinstated EOY guidance

[spawny100] 14/5/2024 07:58

I don't think market will like that. Maybe that's why they want TRIN? Some here have been suggesting high decline rate for Cascadura for months but have been shot down as derampers.

[buffythebuffoon] 14/5/2024 07:54

P.S. Why not use the original source for your RNSs instead of the unreliable and unnecessary dependence on ADVFN. You can also have RNSs emailed to you.

Buffy

[che7win] 14/5/2024 07:53

So, my layman’s opinion:

1. The gas is there, will need more wells to extract it.
2. Production is derived from both sand porosity/permeability as well as a fracture porosity system.
3. Initial high rates influenced more from the fracture porosity, which now not influencing current production as much.
4. Current production more from the natural sand matrix porosity/permeability.
This will have long natural production curves, and we can possibly stimulate this production rate to a higher level by adding a pump.

In summary, the wells exhibit higher initial rates, then move down at a steeper level than expected to a natural production level, which possibly can be increased by a pump.
We will produce expected 200 MMcf/d eventually, but probably need 10 wells instead of 8 wells to do so.
The fact that they still maintain year end guidance is a huge positive and now they know how Cascadura operates better as well.

“the wells are exhibiting a dual porosity/permeability system which indicate that production is derived from both sand porosity/permeability as well as a fracture porosity system. A fracture porosity system can deliver high initial production rates and pressure which can decline quickly while sand matrix porosity/permeability may deliver at lower production rates for longer periods of time.

Given the nature of the production, and the apparent influences of natural fractures in the structure, we have commenced a feasibility study to determine the potential benefits of a stimulation program to optimize natural gas and associated liquids recovery from the wells.”

[buffythebuffoon] 14/5/2024 07:51

EggChaser,

[kaos3] 14/5/2024 07:31

egg

first Quarter 2024 Financial and Operating Highlights

· Achieved average quarterly production of 7,015 boe/d (80 percent natural gas), representing a 228 percent increase from first quarter 2023 average production volumes of 2,139 boe/d (40 percent natural gas). First quarter 2024 production decreased by 18 percent relative to 8,504 boe/d produced in the fourth quarter of 2023 (79 percent natural gas), mainly reflecting natural declines from our Cascadura field.

· Realized petroleum and natural gas sales of $16,584,000 (Q4 2023 - $20,759,000).

- Cascadura field production volumes in the quarter contributed $6,961,000 of net natural gas sales at an average realized price of $2.49 per Mcf and $1,657,000 of net NGL sales at an average realized price of $69.59 per barrel.

- Natural gas production from the Coho-1 well averaged net volumes of 2.8 MMcf/d (460 boe/d) in the quarter and contributed $542,000 of net natural gas sales at an average realized price of $2.16 per Mcf.

- Crude oil production from our legacy fields contributed $7,424,000 of net sales at an average realized price of $69.95.

· Generated an operating netback of $10,463,000, a 24 percent decrease from the fourth quarter of 2023, primarily due to decreased natural gas and NGL sales volumes.

· Achieved quarterly funds flow from operations of $6,142,000 in the first quarter of 2024 compared to $10,489,000 in the preceding quarter.

· Delivered net earnings of $3,628,000 ($0.02 per basic and diluted share).

· $11,962,000 in quarterly capital investments primarily focused on expenditures directed towards one CO-1 crude oil development well and two Cascadura development wells, and progressing construction on the flowline from the Cascadura C surface location to the Cascadura natural gas processing facility.

· Exited the first quarter of 2024 with a cash balance of $9,537,000 and a net debt position of $27,621,000, resulting in a reduced net debt to annual funds flow from operations ratio of 1.45 times.

Post Period-end Highlights

· Successfully drilled and cased the CO-375 development on our CO-1 block, with openhole logs and drilling data indicating a sand thickness of approximately 530 feet in the Forest Formation and approximately 625 feet in the Cruse Formation.

· On April 18, 2024 we executed a third amended and restated loan agreement with our existing lender providing for an additional $13 million of bank debt capacity, which will be used to finance our previously announced initial 2024 capital program.

· On May 1, 2024, we announced that we reached an agreement with the Board of Directors of Trinity Exploration and Production Plc on the terms of a recommended all-share acquisition.

[kaos3] 14/5/2024 07:20

i think that an expert should do an interview with xavier. he went silent


dunder - definition of ...pockets size.... depends how large a person can hope, think and act imho

thinking of deep pockets ... mine, yours, millioners, billioners