Touchstone Exploration Share Discussion Threads

[redartbmud] 07/5/2024 16:40

Dunders
"my only point being I've seen quite a few positive FCF "forecasts" for TXP which never "kind of" reach this finishing line, so am a little nervous to put in my "banked profits" yet?!"

Precisely.
Always on the cusp, but never getting beyond.
Always a hiccup or niggle, then the spotlight is moved elsewhere and reporing on the 'next best thing' is forgotten as it fails to deliver, and a new 'next best thing' becomes the focus.

Bottom line - Revenue generated less costs incurred year on year = success/failure of the company.
BUT don't forget the dark art of forecasting reserves in the ground that can potentially be extracted - or not - as the case may be. Those 'reserves' should be a big part of the valuation ascribed to the company.

kaos makesc a good point on geology. There may well be oil in the ground but it is only when it it extracted successfully that you have a result.

red

[kaos3] 07/5/2024 11:28

Ok - i will tell you my angst. I am afraid we are just drilling pockets with high decline rate.

Or is the problem with sand moving. What is the standard industry solution and why not used?

Just im gardening universe thinking

Would appreciate some expert comments on the topics regarding geology and production obstacles

I sense clear established pattern along both companies experiencing similar happenings

[kaos3] 07/5/2024 10:51

To me the biggest q is geology. We got as a rule (trin similar experiences) good sands with excellent pressures.

But

Then allways problems. First with drilling it.. many side drills needed.

Then low production. Then redoing the well with larger production profile - not working.

Similar with trin. They at least informed us what the problem was. Sand production stopped the gas flow and the equipment.

So how to read all this in a simplistic way i can understand - good sand, good pressure... but can not produce as estimated. And after the redoing it - not improving.

Both companies same experience. So geology not the people imho

[dunderheed] 07/5/2024 10:25

Redact thanks for your reply, my only point being I've seen quite a few positive FCF "forecasts" for TXP which never "kind of" reach this finishing line, so am a little nervous to put in my "banked profits" yet?!
S93, RE sturm yes early yesterday and the "stuff" highlighted was exactly what I didn't agree with, for exactly the same reasons as you so better eloquently put but, hopefully that "meaning" was there is some of my "jumbled" words, ahem.
Re extra wells for Casca, yes was concerned regarding the real cpr expert assumptions as well and how this may impact the NPV, which was my "in one hand, out of the other remark" (ahem) and probably not the best way of description.
Either way I'm still excitedly awaiting for the £7.50 share price predictions thrown around like confetti elsewhere, in about 12 months to crystallise?!
Lol re point 6, methinks there are some reasonable opportunities there?!
On phone so apologies for typos, grammar etc and as ever all IMHO plus DYOR!!

[spangle93] 07/5/2024 08:51

Dunders - well argued post. Is the post you responded to by Sturn the one timed at 08:14?

I believe my mum would disagree with "everybody and their mom knows that TXP ressources on the other hand will grow a lot this year. TXP could/should be rated 3+ times higher from the 2 wells that are drilled but waiting to be tested". But then she disagrees with most things on principle.

I think she has some grounds though. First, because while these 2 new Casca wells have some appraisal element, they are effectively exploiting a known field. Second, because TXP has an increasingly dismal record of turning wonderful drilling results into actual production. And third because the decline of these wells could well be faster than would have been assumed in a the annual reserves report - it's certainly more than the company experts on another platform were posting about before production start up.


As for your point 6 - dream on!

[redartbmud] 06/5/2024 22:30

Dunderheed

Good points and a well structured and reasoned piece.
As ever, with Txp there are a multitude of options and possible outcomes going forward.
Taking on the Trin portfolio adds another dimension to the chaotic world of the Clown.
Only time will tell us the impact on the success to the business resulting from 'merger', but I can't help questioning the timing of the move. Txp has its' hands more than full with ongoing operations that have been mired in delays and underperformance that have fundamentally reduced the value of the company and resulted in two unplanned fundraisings.

Egg's financial appraisal gives a more confident summary of possible cash inflows that present a much better financil picture, if we can totter and lurch to 2025 without a catastrophic update in the interim.

What is undeniable is the ongoing weakness in the share price that seems to indicate the jury remains very much with a negative bias.

red

[dunderheed] 06/5/2024 21:27

I agree with a good post from Sturm over on LSE earlier today and excuse me replying here - but LSE reduce amount of words in posts so I'd have to write multiple entries and on phone - so not easy. I think Sturm posts here as well, so thought I'd reply here! I'm personally not sure about the “expected̶1; increase in resources for TXP versus TRIN (in a non cash constrained environment) and let's wait and see how testing and plateau production profiles impact this for current wells at Casca? It could be a case of, in one hand, out of the other (I certainly do not hope this is the case but we simply do not know, "considering" other history - but I personally believe Casca will always be a "winner" size wise)?!
I think it is questionable how much further TRIN price may have dropped but think there is certainly room for TXP share price to increase over the months ahead so am a "little" confused (but not "that" concerned) as to "Why Now"?
That is not to say it is an absolutely obvious deal to be done - at some point with obvious benefits and nothing genius in this - just like obtaining contiguous acreage to discovered resources - purported by some to be "genius", ahem.
Possible "reasoning" (?) could be :
1. We dont know sod all about sod all regarding TXP current production profiles going ahead but, I'd have thought this "deal" was certainly “mooted” at least 6-9 (probably nearer the 9?) months ago when perhaps Clown expected much higher Casca profiles would be expected hence, thought share price would be higher anyway?
2. It could be that TRIN have now intimated there are other "interested parties" which led to this being upgraded more quickly than was the preference (I personally do not give this much credence however - either genuine interested parties or "bullied" into making "quick" offer by TRIN management with the "threat" of this - could have prompted now)?
3. We do not know if there was any high level "external" influence - encouraging such a deal to TXP as well?
4. Aligned with above - perhaps this deal is "linked" to other ongoing strategy we are also not aware of? To be clear we have "paid" for this with some form of perceived "dilution" had we potentially "waited" for higher TXP share price but, I really would not want Shell onshore assets at all - definitely with no further "dilution" - unless they paid us to take them or unless it could lead to some form of negotiated gas price increase (but the less said about that already publicly discussed item, the better, ahem!) - as I personally think we have far too much to be getting on with, at this time already!
4. It could be the case of Clown getting the timing strategically wrong again (surely always best to have just got Casca done and producing in first place - then do the Rosyton Chinook higher risk stuff later, IMHO)?
5. It could be the case that Casca wells coming on-stream aren't the greatest wells ever seen and the TXP share price continues to "struggle" and this prompted some "corporate actions now - rather than "later"" (I don't personally think this as I would already have sold but it is a "risk") but saying that, it would be a pretty catastrophic scenario anyway and dwarf this current perceived "dilution"!
From the above, I also don’t take much encouragement that TRIN have been “convincedR21; of the robustness of Casca current production profiles to "recommend" the offer, as to be really honest, how else are the TRIN management going to conjure up such a large short-term increase in share price and allow them to exit in the short term so “easily”?
6. So who knows - it really could be any of the above or none - but one thing is for sure I would like to see some "sacrifice" within TXP senior "management" as well as TRINs for "G&A reduction efficiencies", as see this as a good opportunity to potentially clear out dead wood on BOTH sides?
As ever - absolutely all IMHO and DYOR of course.

[eggchaser] 06/5/2024 08:17

Thanks HB - this sums it up for me and my investment here..ConclusionThe scale and savings means this is a win-win for TRINies and Touchies. Saving of several million dollars per year should be achievable.With oil achieving around $60 per barrel and gas achieving $15 per BOE, after Trinidadian royalties and taxes, TXP is forecast to begin generating serious levels of cash in 2024 (in a year with heavy capex) but FCF is forecast to grow in FY25 to £14.1m and doubles again to £28.9m FY26.TRIN has a forecast FY2024 additional £5.2m FCF (£5.1m reported earnings).Combined, FY25 should comfortably be above £20m FCF, with earnings potentially £25m. Assuming £22m this equates to 13.3p for each TRIN/TXP shareholder, potentially doubling to 27p in FY2026. That could be incredibly attractive (considering the TXP share price of 40p, that's a FY26 PE of just 1.5.It makes the 5% fall this week feel very strange indeed.

[holdbucket] 06/5/2024 08:09

Posted over on the LSE board just in case it's of interest.
hXXps://theoakbloke.substack.com/p/trinity-touch-stone
(sub XX for tt)

[sleveen] 05/5/2024 08:01

Q1 financials expected within 2 weeks, they should bring good financial news.

[lauders] 04/5/2024 04:08

Desperation, or seeing a good opportunity and going for it? Don't forget that it has taken over 6 months from the time TRIN were approached to where we are today. Guess we shall find out in around another 6 months, at least, how things stack up. We just need some good news from TXP on the conclusion of the bid rounds, volumes at the recent Cas drills and Coora volumes to perhaps change the downtrend that has been in place for some time here.

[spawny100] 03/5/2024 21:44

It's been a brilliant trading share I agree. But I'm unclear as to what this offer for TRIN means and what it might do for the share price from these levels. If Cascadura and Ortoire etc were as good as they were hoping then they wouldn't be trying to empire build from such a lowly share price. But then if Cascadura and Ortoire were as good as Baay has been crowing then we wouldn't be at this lowly share price right now. Logically this move smacks of desperation to me so I see no reason to buy back in here yet.

[rckillco1] 03/5/2024 21:10

Do you think the company, by doing this deal, feels confident that Casca 2 and 3 are going to be in the ball park of what ST1 is? I have been adding to a large position but i also trade when there is profit to be made. Started buying way back after Coho, have had an many as 200K and as few as 80K shares...been a great stock to trade around a core position, after all its a junior and subject to all the misgivings which come with junior oil and gas companies and what we have experienced. Cascadura is the real deal. Q4 will be interesting,

[redartbmud] 03/5/2024 16:46

Dunderheed

Wise words indeed.
The company has now been a work in progress outfit for a very long time. Always travelling but never moving forward.
Promises, timelines etc. etc. have come and gone despite bountiful optimism.

I have to be sceptical of Txp ever achieving an appropriate level of success as it stands. That is before adding another operation that has currently declining output levels. And accounting for the fact that Txp has sought additional funds (twice), just to keep afloat, and ignoring that fact that PB categorically stated that the business would be self-funding with a surplus of cash going forward.

red

[dunderheed] 03/5/2024 12:48

EC respectfully it is the experienced E&P SME'S and "generalists" (I include myself in that group, lol) that may have reservations based upon strategy, communications and efficency of operations with their relative work experience, that lead them to having these reservations?
I do agree with your point regarding success of drill bit and, let's face it, the communications at TXP have been historically awful however, regarding their respective succeses but again, E&P isn't just that. This was my very first reservation and I did post it at the time actually (!), that there is a world of difference between being a successful explorer and transitioning to producer. This can eventually be done by well trained gerbils but the learning curves and possible inefficient reservoir optimisation can be extremely costly to achieve that! To date, the optimism displayed by management, does not seen to have been matched by the delivery, IMHO.
That does not mean they will not eventually (there's that word again!) get there but, for people who work or have worked, at senior levels in the industry it can be "painful" to "witness".
Again if I were you, who claims not to have had that much E&P specific experience, I'd listen well to such people when they post, as it could potentially save you money in the longer run, not necessarily at TXP but for future investment?
I myself, well over a year ago now, started getting concerned about the possible wastage of the "wall of cash" if certain people remained at company or certain experiences had not been learned and mentioned over on Discord, when the share price was double what it was now, however was shouted down etc etc and I do wonder, if people had heeded such words, maybe they wouldn't over stretched themselves or kept on buying, because it was "so cheap". Hence a vacuum of only positive commentary is definitely not the way to go, IMHO.
I am significantly down on my investment here (but could be significantly lower had I continued to average down, instead invested elsewhere and have done significantly better luckily) but, will remain as holder, as hopefully the Casca asset is good enough to withstand a bit of my perceived inefficiency, learning curve and "waste". Could be wrong of course though!!
As ever all IMHO and absolutely best of luck to all holders! Excuse typos, all posted on phone!

[eggchaser] 03/5/2024 12:47

I echo that che7win - and I guess after following Ritson and Koot, PB still holds more credit all be it the assets and others in the team!

[che7win] 03/5/2024 10:56

Eggchaser They are throwing off 44m dollars now for a combined market cap of 120 million dollars.P/E of 3 and assets make this half price right now.I see 80p target in next 6 months if not I'll happily keep buying.I'm. Very happy shareholder here. I mean that.

[eggchaser] 03/5/2024 10:51

I get the frustration as I too am underwater with this investmentHowever I have to ask, specifically the experienced and knowledgeable posters with a negative view, why they continue to invest, given their obvious distain aimed at the CEO? Whilst moaning about it on the bulletin board is one thing - actually carrying the fight to his door directly, could yield a different outcome, or is the intention to perhaps warn other investors thinking of investing? In which case is very admirable, but have you considered the feelings and opinion of the rest of us who are invested in the hope and I will stress the word hope, that the company can turn their fortunes around given their assets?That's the thing with investment in oil and gas, a great deal based upon hours of research but in the end it ultimately falls upon the success of a drill bit... where the outcome is binary...

[buffythebuffoon] 03/5/2024 10:48

Oh well, they played it safe. He read from a script and only made a couple of mistakes. The angle was a bit dissapointing. The view of his specs was not as good as hoped. I think they were the 2023 addition which added a few years to the look.

The list of benefits for the rationale for the merger was the usual cookie cutter list. I had it on in the background so didn’t look at many of the slides. Now we’ll see how far down the road it pushes any material progress in the share price

Buffy

[awise355] 03/5/2024 10:47

I guess it will show in the financials, with the synergies he speaks of the bottom line should look rudely healthy this time next year

[awise355] 03/5/2024 10:45

That's it, all done, no questions

[n95] 03/5/2024 10:45

Market will like this merger once it digests and understands it.

[swanvesta] 03/5/2024 10:32

Starting well with a couple of moments solemn silence for the disclaimers.