Touchstone Exploration Share Discussion Threads

[dunderheed] 29/10/2023 09:18

36157 - I know mate but "natural genius" should be recognised - not that of other avatars copy and pasting stuff - all the time!
It is surprising how often you and I "kind of" agree on some of your summaries but for differing reasons.
Here's hoping that December will finally produce something definitive that observers can actually measure to and hold "management" to account for!

I will not be posting for rest of day as have charitable stuff to be doing now - as I don't have anything else to do with my time, ahem I'll get me coat!

All IMHO. DYOR folks!

[dunderheed] 28/10/2023 14:31

Under I am disappointed - I thought you liked me the most but, it seems not now?!

I also copyrighted the Under nickname for you - but because they are a big bluey think they can plagiarise that (I hope their "other avatar names" do not breach such a copyright too?) - as well as everything else!!
Very, very, disappointed you didn't point that out as well!

[11_percent] 28/10/2023 11:45

For those on the bill board……this is what we are talking about.

From post 1491…..by Pro……which is a copy of an other post……which is a summary of a presentation by the COO.

=========

He says:

“The plan is 6 months from casc C spud to brining it online. Preparations are underway for flow line between A and C.”

What’s being said here is that it will be 6 months between the spud of the first well on the Casc C drill pad…….to gas from that pad being on line.
Among othing tings…..it means building the pipeline between the Casc C drill pad /site…….and the Casc A site.

This is very unlikely…̷0;…and is more likely to take up to 12 months to get the Casc C pad gas on line.


However…..thats not the point.

TXP has form…….giving target dates for various activities/ projects…..that they never meet……..and this looks like another time line/ target date that has been plucked out of the air……230;”6 months”…….a nice round number.

As I explain in previous posts today/above……..this is because they don’t have a robust planning process.

One of the main promises from the recent presentations is that TXP will issue a drilling/project plan in December 2023.

This will be most welcome……;..and be a first.

[11_percent] 28/10/2023 09:36

And while I am at it.......one the main points of the recent presentation......was the promise of a Plan in December.

This is what the IIs were looking for last month.

A costed plan would give then a value for future oped.....ie, what they are going to spend in2024......a figure the IIs are looking for.

The plan would show when the increased gas output from Coho is likely to come on line and when the Csac C pad pad production is likely to come on line, and the associated revenue.......a figure the II analysis are looking for.

This is basic,basic stuff......have a look at any AXL pentation.....they lay it all out.

Lets see what they come up with in December......their plan should show the breakdown for the activities.....to give "6 months"......from spud at Casc C pad to production.

[11_percent] 28/10/2023 09:19

An interesting post from an other bill board.

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Dunderheed20 Oct '23 - 11:01 - 36123 of 36154
0 6 1
Poor old Pro - getting confused again that they actually know something about the o&g upstream industry.
The installation of pump at Rosyton will NOT cost millions neither will a mini frac which would be my course of action if the pump doesnae work - then if that doesn't write off the side track FFS?!
All IMHO.

[11_percent] 28/10/2023 09:16

It was the COO at the conference not PB.



"The plan is 6 months from casc C spud to brining it online. Preparations are underway for flow line between A and C."

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homebrewruss,

OK, no matter who said.......the point I was making........and have been making for 3 years is that TXP as an organisation.....does not plan.

The fact that they can not hit a target date.......is only a symptom......a symptom of the fact that they do not plan.

PB is totally blind to this.

The title of the recent presentation to PIs in London.......and I assume the one to the IIs......was the 5 year vision.

PB started the presentation by saying.......we have a 5 year plan......he does not.
He then went through the presentation......and did not present any plan......in fact, one of the main planks of the presentation was that......they will release an activity plan in December.

This will not be lost on the II representatives.

What PB presented was an activity list.....in no pretesticular order.......we will start getting paid for Cascadura gas on 25th October.....and then we will do some of the activities/drills/projects on our list.

It would be interesting to know how our COO came up with "6 months".

I don't believe he has an activity plan......a Gant Chart, or one of the propriety planing tools most oil companies use......to give him "6 months".

"Failing to plan.......is planning to fail."

Any-road-up......it will take longer than "6 months".

=========

Both Pouge and KS, who post on Wans bill board......were at the recent PI presentation.
Prior to the presentation, Pogue asked if anyone had a question for PB.........and I asked Pouge to enquire about the TXP planning process.

Pouge asked PB about an activity plan........and PB said they did not have one........words to the effect that they were flexible........which says it all really.

[11_percent] 28/10/2023 00:22

Bit like PB.

[pro_s2009] 27/10/2023 23:15

I think everyone knows by now Minus 11% is just a loud mouthed nothing who should be ignored.

[homebrewruss] 27/10/2023 17:09

It was the COO at the conference not PB.

[pro_s2009] 27/10/2023 12:48

From a post by DB I was sent - comments from the US presentation done recently.


Worth rereading: Equityhawk:

Different from what we saw in London, very similar information, just presented differently.

Key takeaways from presentation:

Cipero sign-off coming in next 30 days, maybe next two to three weeks.

Swap will be done soon but no definitive timeline.

He said there is some debate on whether to spud Casc C before or after Christmas.

He said unlike when he was in the field, drill crews expect holidays off now.

The plan is 6 months from casc C spud to brining it online. Preparations are underway for flow line between A and C.

First Cretaceous drill probably end of 2024 maybe early ‘25 and they want to drill the three targets one after another.


Other information gleaned:

-Separator unit needed to upgrade the plant to 200 cost $600k. It cost $3m two years ago (Covid and steel prices).

They are going to wait on the liquids pipeline for now.

There may be ways to increase trucking efficiency in the future and they are pretty confident they can truck 2500bpd.

It seems that there is no connection between going to 90mmcfpd and the price negotiations. It sounds like those are more connected to the fact that the current gas price is only for Ortoire and the leverage may be the probable gas from Rio… which we don’t own yet.

Our relationship with the ministry is great. Stuart reaches out to them once a week or so to check if there’s anything they can do to help. They want all the gas we can give them.

They are going to give very conservative guidance from this point forward. Part of the problem with timelines in the past was they made projections based on experience in North America and didn’t anticipate how slow things move in TT. The strategy is to under promise and over deliver. (No Gantt chart, sorry posh).

They do have some takeover and acquisition targets, but nothing in stone and I couldn’t get any more info.

James confirmed that without the upgrades, he thinks he can push the plant to 100-110mmcfpd.

They aren’t building the pipeline before they take the plant to 200mmcfpd. Partly, C is on the up dip side so they don’t know if they will get as much liquid. When it makes sense to build a pipeline, they will build a pipeline.

So, one of the biggest takeaways I got was that he claimed in the presentation that it would be about 6 months from spur of casc C to bring gas to market. I thought he probably mis-spoke so I asked him to confirm that after the presentation. And he said “6 months”. I was very encouraged by that, especially since he made a big deal about making sure they are carful with their timelines going forward.

The prep work they are doing now is getting ready to clear a path for a road between A and C from which to build the pipeline.

From previous information, the only equipment at C will be some monitoring and safety equipment. All the major upgrades will be on A. A and C are only a mile away. So the pipeline will be easy along a road they are constructing.

[stockport loser] 27/10/2023 11:16

Looks oversold and the UT 52p looks like it fulfilled a technical support line which it has bounced off strongly in previous periods. Given upcoming newsflow and cash coming in monthly by the millions I think it is very doubtful it will drop below.

[11_percent] 27/10/2023 09:40

One of the problems here is the PI OBSESSION with detail......particularly on the Discord......every minute thing......which includes the share price

Don't look at day-2-day changes in the share price ....the smallest period that has any meaning is the weekly change.......the rest is noise.

[stockport loser] 27/10/2023 09:08

That post didn't age well...

[11_percent] 26/10/2023 20:43

This area needs to hold......or its no support.

For what its worth.....i don't think it will hold......nothing in AIM is holding support.




free stock charts from uk.advfn.com

[worraps] 26/10/2023 20:02

Yes, it looks that way, that’s the best explanation so far!