Touchstone Exploration Share Discussion Threads

[king suarez] 28/9/2023 12:21

It's unfortunately not a straight 20% uplift on FFO, because you have 12.5% taken off first in increased royalties, then a further 55% taken off in unemployment levy and profits production tax combined (once tax pools have been used up).

It will be a nice increase though.

[lazarus2010] 28/9/2023 11:58

King Suarez28 Sep '23 - 11:43 - 35997 of 35997
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FWIW Scott seemed pretty bullish about the price negotiations, but I won't hold my breathe on it. Would just be a lovely bonus if it comes through.

PB and Scott both appeared far more relaxed and receptive to questions/comments than previously so you can tell they are now feeling more confident/relieved!

I said I had modelled the company at c$100m FCF at max capacity and he said that was 'about right'.
----------------------------------------------------
KS - max capacity being the 180mm or the 120mms after the next 3 development wells...PB in the Malcy interview seemed to suggest that they would be close to $100mln after these 3 wells come onstream.

One thing I didn't like, at one stage he says production at 65-70mm, then later he says 60mm plus or minus. Was the 65-70mm including Coho or just Casc?

With regards timelines, while he hasn't explicitly stated any, he has clearly stated they will start once they have enough cash in the bank. First payment will go towards the 7mln drawdown, and seemed to suggest they will then start building cash. As Oct will be the first full month, plus the half of sept, we are probably looking at receipts of close to $6mln by 25th Nov. The 25th Dec (nice present!) payment is then cash in the bank, at which point he could start to mobilise the crew and equipment early in the New Year, which means if they start up towards end of January they will effectively have 2 full months of cash in the bank, s c. $8mln, plus the drawdown facility will also have at least $4mln of capacity, so realistically we are looking at end Jan/early Feb 2024 to start the development wells. PB also stated that they envisage these three wells coming on stream in H2 2024, so anywhere from July onwards. Let's say it's September, so in 12 months time we will start bringing in close to $8mln per month.

All looking good, just taking time.

aimho dyor niai

[king suarez] 28/9/2023 11:43

FWIW Scott seemed pretty bullish about the price negotiations, but I won't hold my breathe on it. Would just be a lovely bonus if it comes through.

PB and Scott both appeared far more relaxed and receptive to questions/comments than previously so you can tell they are now feeling more confident/relieved!

I said I had modelled the company at c$100m FCF at max capacity and he said that was 'about right'.

[sleveen] 28/9/2023 10:43

180mm will do me.

[dunderheed] 28/9/2023 09:54

35992 - low 3's is a great uplift from where we currently stand.

PS big respect to KS and DB for their respective chats last night and posting them up - as ever really appreciated from lazy b's like myself who cannot be bothered to attend such meetings and recently (quite rightly) told off for not voting at AGMs as well!!

[spangle93] 28/9/2023 09:49

He's never one to shy away from getting his teeth stuck into a challenge, for sure ;-)

[king suarez] 28/9/2023 09:45

He's a good chap, that King Suarez. Always liked him.

[fireplace22] 28/9/2023 08:29

on the gas pricing, I picked this up from King Suarez on another board (AAZ) from yesterday;


Asked Scott about the contract price and PBs comments re negotiating. He confirmed that they were in discussions and that Heritage were also pushing for a higher price. Said not to expect too much, but they were looking at low $3s/mcf! (which would actually be quite a nice boost!).

The current price increase is NOT inflation linked it is at 2% p/a.

When I mentioned full capacity to Scott he said 'we won't do 200, think 180'.

[lauders] 28/9/2023 08:01

From TRIN results today: H1 2023 average net sales volume was 2,861 bopd (H1 2022: 2,974 bopd).

Cascadura has indeed created a step change for TXP. Well done TXP.

[dunderheed] 28/9/2023 07:15

Respectfully Pro again, you are calling people out wrongly.
PB has constantly spoken from the hip which has seriously damaged his "reputation", IMHO.
When "people" urged him to under promise and over deliver, they did not expect him to suddenly stop providing timelines.
What was wanted, IMHO, was REALISTIC timelines.
Now we are in a situation where the 60 MCF day has been much lauded but no minimum work schedule timings have been provided in the even more lauded recent presentations.
Naturally with PBs record of not giving consistent information the market is questioning why this is?
If I were PB I would have under promised the next well programme timings based upon the "minimum" 60 MCF production profiles and contracted prices then over delivered on this with any additional volumes and potential revenue (gas price) uplifts.
Naturally after all the Casca fanfare, the market is questioning why he has not been able to do this?
That is all IMHO of course, pretty logical and certainly not difficult.

[maxxy1] 28/9/2023 07:13

PROtaaaaaaard begging for sensibility. Such irony from lil piece of sht

[dunderheed] 28/9/2023 07:03

Lol Pro do you really think I care for one second about not being able to post on your silly little trading boards?
I'm fine thanks buddy.
The problem with the little boy who called wolf all the time, is that eventually everyone gets to know their MO.
You are the one who is upset about that not me, sonny!
Best of luck in your trades, sweaty time for you eh, as TXP hasn't reacted in the way you thought, oh like most of your trades?
All IMHO, DYOR.

[pro_s2009] 28/9/2023 06:57

An increase, if they can get it, from 2.5 to 3.0 would be 20%.

Thats 20% on all FFO forecasts, which, over the course of a year, and based on 90 initially and then building up to 200 per day later in 2024 - makes a bloody massive difference.

But, to be clear..........all forecasts are now based on 2.5$ for the gas, and thats it. If no increase happens, then fine, its not expected.

If one happens and is agreed by early December - its all upside, over delivery.

[pro_s2009] 28/9/2023 06:48

No Spangle. Paul has said what the current deal is. He has also "hinted" they are trying to raise the price and that they are not looking to go to 90 as "the price increase will be related to a production increase". Refer to the IMC webinar.

They are currently in negotiation to get the price up to 3$ - this will have a massive effect on FFO and the plans ahead - which is why the big update is not coming until mid - December, at which time they will know if they get 2.5 or 3 for 2024 production.

I strongly suggest anyone wanting proper conversations on TXP avoid using this thread where you have idiots like joey, -11% and Dunderheed constantly being children.

You are going to have to get used to "under promise and over deliver now"..........dont berate them for being conservative and leaving upsides as surprises now......this is the new normal. Talk down, perform up.



Spangle93 27 Sep '23 - 22:54 - 35982 of 35984

11% - PRO has come up with some suggestions, based on price renegotiation, which are, frankly, discredited by the Malcy interview.

"4-5 years of a fixed price with a 2% escalator" (around 5:10 in the interview)

[dunderheed] 28/9/2023 06:36

Blimey Pro must be desperate to sell TXP at the moment, lol.

[pro_s2009] 28/9/2023 06:29

And the difference between 2.5 and 3.0 will be quite large in terms of their 2024 and 2025 planning.

So all being well and a new agreement made, or not by December, then you get the big forward plan update in mid December.

At any time ahead, if news of a new pricing deal drops for 2024, then all broker targets and forecasts immeadiately go upwards.

Another potential "price upwards" event that will offer "over deliver" potential.

[pro_s2009] 28/9/2023 06:27

So now everyone "knows" they are currently negotiatiing (TXP and Heritage) with the NGC to get an increase up to 3$ in 2024 onwards...........

Now you know why they are holding production back at 60 per day.

NGC are being told, if you increase to 3$ we will give you 90 per day from Jan 1st 2024.

Lets not forget, even at 3% the NGC sells at a big premium.....the more they have the more profit they get..... so its a win win........ however........this is Trinidad.

But it explains why currently production is held at 60 only.

[pro_s2009] 28/9/2023 02:52

Interview on LSE :


Touchstone Exploration put foot on the gas in Trinidad as they target 30,000 BOE and the FTSE 250



.

[pro_s2009] 28/9/2023 02:41

Your welcome.

After being hounded and bashed and told repeatedly to under promise and over deliver.....the TXP team are being very conservative - and now they are being berated for "why are you not doing this and that"....why is it only this much going forward.........how come next Casca wells are only 20 each.....why why why....

Cant win can they.......but be assured, they are now being super conservative and understating the potential flows and rates and forecasts.

TXP and Heritage are trying to increase the price currently, they want around 3$ instead of the current 2.5$. This is most likely why they are not forecasting until mid December as they want to know IF they can assume 3$ in 2024 or stick with the 2.5$

As TXP goes forward you can now expect lots of conservative under promise flow targets and then all being well lots of over delivery.

Thats the new normal now, people wanted it, screamed for it and now your getting it.


This is the PB interview with Malcy, link below :



.

[herman007] 28/9/2023 00:04

A lot of smoke and mirrors going on at the moment.

[spangle93] 27/9/2023 22:54

11% - PRO has come up with some suggestions, based on price renegotiation, which are, frankly, discredited by the Malcy interview.

"4-5 years of a fixed price with a 2% escalator" (around 5:10 in the interview)

[dunderheed] 27/9/2023 22:11

I think I'm going to listen a lot more to S93 than Pro - LOL!

[11_percent] 27/9/2023 21:19

Spangle,

Pro has explained at length why they are not going to 90 on his TXP, ADVFN, bill board.