Touchstone Exploration Share Discussion Threads

[hari] 19/2/2019 08:02

Disagree with that 40% discount I would say When the insiders got news of the placing they sold it down from 20p to 111p

[ileeman] 19/2/2019 08:00

"Private placement directed towards United Kingdom institutional investors (the "Private Placement")"


I would say little to no retail involved at that price, I guess if company are offered money at market price then they are going to take it gives them a bit more leeway into drill I guess.

[astorcourt] 19/2/2019 07:58

stopping the rest of the drilling program because of volatility in the oil markets

But its ok to go gunho on a wildcat rather than the safe proven route.

This man is a gambler.

[ileeman] 19/2/2019 07:57

JubCap
‏@JubCapital

#TXP have some interesting drill coming up in Q2/Q3 - smart move to make most of recent oil price rise with 4% discounted raise.

[che7win] 19/2/2019 07:56

They are curtailing drilling to preserve capital which is what Dr Paul Be at said he would do some time ago when I communicated with him.The money will be used for wells that could transform the compsny

[king suarez] 19/2/2019 07:55

Explains why the price has barely moved recently in response to the POO rally.

Part of me is slightly disappointed, but part is equally pragmatic and thinks it is a reasonably sensible/astute move and should ensure the drilling programme does not get held up should POO dip.

[2prsimo] 19/2/2019 07:54

I thought that was a poor RNS to be fair - also stopping the rest of the drilling program because of volatility in the oil markets - hmmm.

[hari] 19/2/2019 07:54

What presentation was that ?Co telling porkies I think

[hari] 19/2/2019 07:51

Well well I will not gloat :-)The recent share price movement down now explains what was going on behind the scenes I guarantee you will be able to buy below placing price at some point So also stopped drilling program of other wells to drill OrtoireNot sure I agree with the reasoning though They alluded to that in previous RNS

[astorcourt] 19/2/2019 07:49

Oh dear . Grim. I thought the company was doing well with its profits and didn't need dilution. I will be selling this dog on the open.

[ileeman] 19/2/2019 07:43

Unexpected but cant argue with that, basically raised at market price. I guess they dont want to farm in given how good ortoire is so decided to raise as a safety net + use cashflow.

Fair play people calling a placing got it right but they are going to be very dissapointed by how good the price is, this also puts a lid on placing discussion.

[homebrewruss] 19/2/2019 07:24

Guess that removes the placing uncertainty

[sleveen] 19/2/2019 07:21

Placing @ 12p.

Tone of the RNS distinctly cautious, which is probably the right approach given current POO.

[glennborthwick] 19/2/2019 07:20

Not much of a discount

[ileeman] 18/2/2019 09:05

Oil into new recent highs again. Tick tock.

[ileeman] 16/2/2019 16:05

Nice post by someone on LSE, also I note oil continued to go up after hours. Tick tock.

Paul Baay CEO / Jan 16 2019 (approx 2000bopd / share price 12.25 / Brent at $60)

“All the indications are right now that supply / demand is tightening very nicely for us around the world and I think over the next couple of months we’ll see a true oil price that really reflects supply demand and takes some of the noise out of the market and realistically for us that’s somewhere between $60 and $70 (Brent) and that makes a very very, very very positive price and cash flow for us.”

Brent has moved from $60 to currently over $66 since then.

Jan 2019 Presentation / Conference call here…

hxxp://www.valuethemarkets.com/index.php/2019/01/16/video-touchstones-paul-baay-discusses-ortoire-blocks-game-changing-potential-exclusive-valuethemarkets-presentation-txp/?utm_campaign=shareaholic&utm_medium=twitter&utm_source=socialnetwork

[mount teide] 15/2/2019 20:22

Brent back up to $66.40 - another +2.74% today. Back in a bull market - over 27% up from the late December lows.

[ileeman] 15/2/2019 14:13

Oil going nuts

UK oil $65 US oil $55

Lovely

[mount teide] 15/2/2019 02:08

Some recent Oil Market Research from Natural Resource Market Specialists - Goehring & Rozencwajg

Looking Ahead in 2019: Oil Fundamentals - 02/ 14/ 2019

“Based on our models, inventories will now resume their steady draws throughout the rest of the year and prices will resume their advance.”

While the severe weakness over the past several months has been the result of short-term policy errors, it has hidden many long-term bullish underlying fundamental trends currently taking place in global oil markets, all with potentially large consequences. Now that OPEC has cut production, many of these bullish trends will start to regain importance as global oil markets slip back into deficit.

Many analysts blamed a combination of weak demand and surging shale production for the rise in inventories and price weakness. We strongly disagree with this assessment. Consider that, as of April, OPEC member countries plus Russia (so-called OPEC+) were producing 43.3 mm b/d. Using this as a baseline, OPEC+ increased production 1.4 mm b/d by November. In total over that period, we calculate 175 mm barrels were added to global oil markets. Over that same period, global inventories grew by only 25 mm barrels relative to long-term averages. Therefore, without the OPEC+ production increase, inventories would have drawn sharply by 150 mm barrels between April and November, or 725,000 b/d. Given that the market was undersupplied by 550,000 b/d in 2017, this suggests that absent OPEC’s decision to boost production, the market deficit would have actually accelerated in 2018, even accounting for the stronger-than-expected production from the US shales. We have long argued that the US shales would continue to grow, and the world oil market would need every barrel it could get. In retrospect, that seems to have been the case.

Today’s dynamics are materially different than the 2014-2015 experience. In November 2014, Saudi Arabia abandoned its role as swing producer and pumped 9.4 mm b/d. Over the next 24 months, it increased production by 1.2 mm b/d and added nearly 500 mm barrels to global oil supplies in aggregate. At the same time, global inventory levels rose by 350 mm barrels over that period (mostly in the US). In other words, in 2014-2016, 75% of Saudi Arabia’s additional production made its way into inventories, whereas today 75% of OPEC+’s increase was absorbed by the world’s oil market. What is keeping oil markets so tight this time, despite rising OPEC production? Longtime followers of our research will immediately recognize a few of the underlying fundamental forces that helped keep oil markets relatively balanced. We expect these forces will become even more severe throughout 2019 and beyond with very bullish results.

First, non-OPEC oil supply outside of the United States and Russia deteriorated materially over the past six months. In our Q2 2018 letter we explained how conventional non-OPEC oil supply was at risk of disappointing. Over the past decade, conventional non-OPEC discoveries totaled up to 110 bn barrels while consumption equaled 360 bn barrels. We have long argued that the dearth of conventional discoveries would soon result in declining non-OPEC production outside of the US and, as outlined in last quarter’s commentary, we believe this is now taking place. During Q4, the head of the IEA, Dr. Fatih Birol, stated that under-investment in conventional non-OPEC production would be the dominant force affecting global oil markets in coming years.

The one non-OPEC country currently bucking this trend is Russia. Over the last nine months, Russian oil production has increased by a material 450,000 b/d. We have traveled to Russia many times over the last 20 years, and in the past we have written in-depth on their oil production potential. We are in the process of undertaking a large research project on the Russian oil industry and will present our findings in our next quarterly letter. In the meantime, Russia has agreed to curtail production in 2019 in conjunction with the OPEC agreement made in November and so for the immediate term we do not expect Russian production to grow further.

While Russia has been a bright spot in conventional non-OPEC production, it has masked the intense deterioration in the rest of the world. Outside of Russia, we estimate that conventional non-OPEC oil supply declined by 1.0 m b/d between July and December. In particular, the North Sea, Mexico and Brazil all disappointed and we expect this to continue going forward. Although we have been commenting on the strains in conventional non-OPEC production for quite a while, these shortfalls have largely taken the market by surprise. When they first released their 2018 supply estimates in the summer of 2017, the IEA (which forms the basis for most energy analysts’ models) called for non-OPEC oil supply ex-the US and Russia to grow by 600m b/din 2018. This figure has now been revised down by 65% to 200,000 b/d but our models tell us that more revisions may be forthcoming.


Some further useful oil sector research can be found in their just released Q4/2018 Natural Resource Market Commentary

[mount teide] 15/2/2019 01:39

Brent back above $65 - oil market continues to draw comfort from Saudis Arabia's announcement this week to make a further 500,000 bopd of production cuts over and above the figure they initially committed to during the OPEC/OPEC+ Vienna Agreement, easing concerns about the global supply potentially getting out of balance.

[captainfatcat] 14/2/2019 19:03

It was in a presentation given by the CEO PB

[hari] 14/2/2019 16:09

ILeemanCannot find that no fund raise info in a RNS

[ileeman] 14/2/2019 15:57

Ortoire they can just bring in a partner worst case, CEO said they do not need to fund raise.

Worth noting US oil is still lagging brent, over next few weeks if oil continues the way it does no doubt TXP will follow.

[sleveen] 14/2/2019 15:18

That and the ghost of SPT past,present and future.