Touchstone Exploration Share Discussion Threads

[spangle93] 22/1/2019 17:13

Rossannan -
Sorry for the minor correction, but in fact Ortoire is a licence, containing, in order of maturity, prospective acreage, leads, prospects, and tested discoveries, the latter of which GLJ estimate have a 95% chance of commerciality. So there's a wide range of confidence in the targets identified, between rank exploration and appraisal/development [from what we heard in the Q&A, the Corosan well later this year will be drilled with the intent of producing from it]

[mr. t] 21/1/2019 15:35

Thanks once more for the insight Spangle.

And at least you didn't call her Shane :)

[captainfatcat] 21/1/2019 13:10

Spangle cheers and a thumbs up from me 8-)

[mr. t] 21/1/2019 13:09

Spangle, thanks for your comments. I appreciate your perspective. As you say the independent verification is helpful...not just for TXP investors, but also for possible JV partners.

My ongoing inability to look at/write the correct numbers is a little worrying - quite a handicap for investing....I meant to write 2022. In the 8 March 2018 reserves report Brent is assumed to be $69 in 2022, and in the Ortoire report its $73.

[captainfatcat] 21/1/2019 12:47

The share price will catch up soon enough, just requires a little patience.


Tick Tock

[ileeman] 21/1/2019 12:37

My GKP holding is flying on the back of oil, just need TXP to do catch up aswell.

I was impressed by the recent RNS, CEO stated if all goes well it could add upto 10000 barrels a day and that report basically confirms that.

Tangeble asset not pie in the sky and drilling Q2.

[spangle93] 21/1/2019 08:20

Mr T, ref 3642
TXP's 2P post tax NPV10 was $157m in the 31/12/17 reserves report. The Ortoire best case net risked NPV10 is $108m, so a 60% uplift. The Ortoire report has a more aggressive price curve (e.g. $73 Brent in 2020 cf. $69 in the 31/12/17 reserves report) so the % NPV increase is a little less than 60% in reality.

Actually it's $73 in 2022 and $68.50 in 2020. according to page 6. ;-)

The other factor is that a number of the leads and prospects are gas, for which there is a completely different pricing structure, a simple route to market, and a shortage.

Unless the contingent gas in the CPR is restricted to Corosan, then it's a challenge to compare the volumes in-house presentation with the CPR.

Overall I must admit I thought the numbers would be larger. But at least, as investors, we have had someone independent to state on the record that Baay and his colleagues aren't blowing smoke.

[mount teide] 20/1/2019 19:07

zho - post 1465 is one example and also on the Trinity and JTC threads.

The global shipping fleet which represents 5% of global oil consumption is currently the last outlet for low cost, high sulphur 'dirty' oil.

Although shipowners have two options regarding compliance, the least expensive over the short/medium term is likely to prove the capex free route of switching over to low sulphur fuels.

[zho] 20/1/2019 17:11

>>Zho - i have been writing about this since the shipping industry early last year ..>>

This is the first I've heard of the new rules - I must have somehow missed your posts.

[zho] 20/1/2019 16:12

From "Jan. 1, 2020, new clean fuel rules go into effect for all cargo vessels and ships mandating that they switch out dirty bunker fuel for cleaner low-sulfur fuels"

... which will boost the oil price, according to:

[ileeman] 18/1/2019 17:36

Oil breaking recent highs.

I dont expect oil to climb in a straightline, dips along the way but we are in a solid uptrend now. $70 within 8 weeks imo.

[ileeman] 17/1/2019 21:07

He said in recent interview if all goes well they can easily add 10000 barrels a day production from these fields ontop of current production.

If that is not transformational for a £15million company I dont know what is lol

Great news today, great operational update earlier in the week...oil price holding expect it will break higher soon enough.

Price not reflecting fundamentals, opportunity.

[red rook] 17/1/2019 18:54

..'So a 50% uplift if the best estimate resources are converted to 2p reserves.' - That's good, but is it 'Transformational'as suggested by PB!
..'The above confirms Ortoire is a good addition to TXP.' - Agreed, but is it 'Transformational'!
..'There is also the chance the high estmate comes in, which would mean $300m extra NPV..' That may be Transformational, but what is the COS for that!

[mr. t] 17/1/2019 18:01

ZENGAS, thank you for the further clarification.

On a net risked basis, Ortoire adds about 9.2 mmboe best estimate resources to TXP's 18.5 mmboe 2p reserves on 31/12/17. So a 50% uplift if the best estimate resources are converted to 2p reserves.

TXP's 2P post tax NPV10 was $157m in the 31/12/17 reserves report. The Ortoire best case net risked NPV10 is $108m, so a 60% uplift. The Ortoire report has a more aggressive price curve (e.g. $73 Brent in 2020 cf. $69 in the 31/12/17 reserves report) so the % NPV increase is a little less than 60% in reality.

The above confirms Ortoire is a good addition to TXP. There is also the chance the high estmate comes in, which would mean $300m extra NPV - an outcome that would surely lead to a big rerate if TXP keeps a high ownership stake.

I'm still surprised by the low recovery factors though.

[zengas] 17/1/2019 15:51

In place is what is estimated to be there.

Unrisked is the amount they estimate to recover on low-mid-high basis if all parameters met that they are using to work from.

It's then risked for a percentage of that.