Touchstone Exploration Share Discussion Threads

[astorcourt] 06/3/2019 10:58

Yes, trin has plenty cash and in good shape.

Touchstone balance sheet is dire in comparison.

[mount teide] 06/3/2019 10:19

As a result of operating the business more like a life-style company for the Board and their friends, many retail investors have experienced a 28p to 12.5p drop in the valuation of their TRIN investment in 9 months together with a 40% dilution - if that's low risk, count me out! Particularly since, any serious production increase upside there will require huge amounts of finance they do not have.

[mount teide] 06/3/2019 08:58

ross 'It is narrative about the third well, the theoretically huge gas play, that I have in mind.' Lol! Yes, of course you do!

Corosan has correctly been identified as the first drill for reasons so obvious even Stevie Wonder could 'see'.

Going by the mark downs it looks like some TRIN investors read this thread. Posted last September that if the TRIN share price performance did not materially improve by Q1/2019, would look to dispose of the remainder - disappointingly, it went the other way, deteriorating by a further 20%.

[ileeman] 06/3/2019 08:49

The first drills being done are very low risk, CEO mentions this in the interview.

He wants the lowist risk ones done first then move into the higher risk plays.

First drill can double current production on success if I recall.

[mount teide] 06/3/2019 08:40

TXP remains seriously undervalued and is one of my largest holdings. With the Saudi's and their OPEC + partners determined to use production cuts to get the oil market back in balance, it is likely to see oil average above $70 during 2019. Combined with even modest success with the relatively low risk, ultra high impact Ortiore drills this year it has the potential to deliver a very much higher valuation by year end.

Got shot of 75% of my TRIN shareholding last summer after the share price had returned to my b/e price following a surprise huge dilution to raise cash, and put it to work in Jadestone Energy following the announcement of the Montara acquisition. In relative terms the investment is now over 60% higher than the 25% left in TRIN, which I've been selling down this week to re-invest in Jadestone - following Jadestone's highly impressive market update this morning, I strongly suspect that premium will only continue to grow during 2019.

[spangle93] 06/3/2019 08:29

That's a perfect example of why "Ortoire" should not be used as a unitary term.

Corosan and Balata, which I believe are the first wells planned, fall under contingent resources.

[spangle93] 06/3/2019 08:03

Rossannan ..... though developments at Winx since that article was written have at least appeared to remove the premise of using that well as an example :-)

Plus, even the Ortoire CPR noted "For the Company's Contingent Resources, GLJ estimated the Chance of Commerciality of these targets to be 95.0%." Or a 19 in 20 chance of success.

Coincidentally that's about the Odds you get on backing Winx the racehorse

[mount teide] 04/3/2019 09:41

ross - you seem to be generating a less than enviable reputation for collecting labels wherever you post.

FWIW - Thought the London SE Investment board community was a little harsh though with its 'Well established serial troll' tag.

[grannyboy] 04/3/2019 09:39

Yes but YOU are, you have stated on a number of occasions when you have sold out or bought back in, you just recently did it..Of course there is nothing wrong with it, it's legal, everyone has their own trading outlooks, but don't try and pass the buck by claiming someone else accused you of doing something you admit too...

[grannyboy] 04/3/2019 09:11

"An opportunity for nickel and dime short term traders"

Pot calling kettle black there...Is it not?...

[mount teide] 03/3/2019 13:32

Looks like oil field drilling costs are going to stay low by historic standards for the foreseeable future according to latest research from Wood Mackenzie:


“Oil and gas companies are back in the money,” Wood Mackenzie’s chief analyst Simon Flower said in their latest report.

“Operationally and financially, all lights are green – production is up, costs are down and margins are up.”

The oil majors are making more money now at $60 per barrel than they were five years ago when oil traded above $100 per barrel, Flowers said.

However, oilfield services companies are lagging behind. Since 2014, oil producers have demanded highly material pricing concessions from service companies.

Service companies, desperate for work as drilling and investment dried up, have had little leverage in negotiations. Surplus drilling rig capacity depressed pricing.

WoodMac says that floating production system fabricators still only stand at a 50% utilisation rate.

Meanwhile, even though the oil price and market has rebounded strongly from the 2016 recession lows, producers are largely “sticking to capital discipline” and “shunning growth.”

Global upstream spending is expected to rise from $450 billion in 2016 to $500 billion by 2020, but that would still be sharply below the $750 billion spent at the 2014 peak.


Rystad Energy in a hard hitting report suggests the US shale industry will struggle to cover debt payments AND pay out dividends this year.

Rystad's analysis of the 33 largest shale companies in the US, accounting for 39% of production, finds that while the industry cut debt in the second half of 2018, they will likely struggle this year:

“Shale E&Ps will struggle to please equity investors and reduce leverage ratios simultaneously. Despite a significant deleverage last year, estimated 2019 free cash flow barely covers operator obligations, putting E&Ps on thin ice as future dividend payments remain in question,” said Rystad Energy senior analyst Alisa Lukash.

Rystad's research suggested that the industry may need to trim at least $4 billion from its promised dividend payments over the next seven years due to inadequate cash flow.

The report is likely to prove a sobering read for investors in the sector as it not only suggests its best days are now in the rear view mirror but, that investor sentiment towards the sector could be at or close to an inflection point.

[mount teide] 02/3/2019 10:10

Trinidad Petroleum Holdings Ltd - First Investor Presentation (formerly Petrotrin)




'Heritage and Paria to play a key role in the Government's plans for the onshore O&G sector'

'Increased production at Heritage a priority - as it increases Government income substantially.'

[wanobi] 02/3/2019 09:48

Brasso3,,, many thanx for reposting that here & Gizzy, many thanx for writing it in the first place, excellent summary of the opportunity at TXP,,, cheers both, Wan

[brasso3] 02/3/2019 03:46

Copied over from LSE with thanks to Gizzy:-

Wrote this for the Scandinavian audience and thought I would put it in here as well, some may benefit or Even correct me :)

Hi All rocket searchers

Touchstone exploration (only meant as inspiration, Im heavily invested, due own DD please)

There are 2 different types of rockets, one type is companies that have products, which look real promising, and might get a great market share, IF they get approved or they achive great marketpenetration

The second type of rockets are companies that have already reached to a point where they earn money, but the market havent realised what value it really holds.

In this type of market enviroment, you should really consider, what type of company (if small cap) you want to risk your money in. I see many great post in this forum, but majority of the companies, would cease to exist, if last correction really turned out to be a fullblown recession. We already see that many companies are turning over to DS financing, due to the fact, that they cant raise money in this turbulent enviroment. I am, as many of you in here, too impatient to sit in big companies with small upside, but im also not willing to throw away money i pursuit of Quick solutions.

I therefore always look for companies with great upside potientiel, that have a security net in form of Cashflow and great triggers in near future. One such company is canadian based touchstone exploration.

Firstly touchstone exploration has a world class management with Paul Bay as CEO. Txp is Paul Bays 3. Company, and the former 2 he took from production as low as 150 boe/d to 28.000 boe/d before he sold it for 400 mil USD (remnington Energy). He is more than capable of running a healthy business, where risk management and reward is extremely attractive. And that is exactly what he is now intending/have begun to do. He actually took over as CEO when txp was producing less than 500 bodp in 2014. He can now brag of a production North of 2000 bopd in this extremely difficult envoriment.

There business model:

TXP are working in 2 areas -

1. Low risk drilling to expand production
2. World class exploration

So far txp only focused on raising production, and have been very succesful in doing so. In 2018 they really hiked production and showed that their concept of business are working. In last interview the CEO said that production had reached 2100 bopd, and will Even increase as another well will soon be put on stream. They have been restricted in choosing there own prefered location in the past, as they had to fulfill a certain amount of wells in there contract lease. Now however, All demands are met, and txp are free to choose those locations and plays, that have proved to be the most productive. Paul Bay said that they now have a much greater knowhow, and experience in where to drill, and how to get the Best out of capex, so I expect this area of business to be Even more productive than 2018. Due to low oil price in end 2018, they decide to pause drilling activities, and watch the oil price movements before deciding whether to continue. That decision was not because they couldnt fund the exploration programme, but because txp headfocus in 2019 is exploration, and to fund a 10 well drilling programme, do 3 explorations well, wouldnt be possible with low oil prices. However Paul Bay said this week, that the development programme could start up again as soon as marts.

Ortoire block (world class exploration)

This block has been studied and analysed for 7 years, and now finally is about to be Explored. And to call these wells exiciting, are an under estimation. The story behind this block is very facinating, as many of the locations already are Explored many years ago. So the first well (corosan) has actually tested 9MMscf (around 1500 boe/d), and left as uncommerciel. The reason it was abandoned, was because you werent really looking for gas in the 1970'ties. So if you found gas you would simply leave it as uncommerciel. TXP have analysed the old data and put it up with New 3D seismic, and actually aims to more than double current production with this well. Its deemed 100% sure that hydrocarbons are present, and a whooping 95% that its commerciel, so the first well in ortoire, inspite of being the least in reserves, are low risk. Estimated time of spud is in June and txp owns 80% interest and is operator of the field

Second well is an oil play, which has also been drilled in 1950's. So why is this interesting for us? The play is turbidite, and the level of knowledge about these plays was very limited. Actually 50% of All new big finds are turbidite plays, and management says that there seismic shows some interesting plays a bit deeper than what has been drilled before. Paul Bay says that if they are right about this play, it could produce 10.000 bodp when fully developed. Independent research have given it high CoS

The third well is a massive gas play which could contain up to 0,5 tcf. Paul Bay compares this play with the massive found of shell very close by and could produce upto around 27MMscf pr day. Its only 3 km from very great fields of shell. This is the most risky of the 3, but to big to not give it a try according to PB. It could actually tripple current production All by it self.

There have been a lot of interest from a lot of players to farm in, and you can Even read about it in shells rapport. The whole of Trinidad will be following the results of this, because it could change the landscape of drilling in T&T. However management decided to do an small equity of £3,8 M to fund it. They have deemed it more valuable to go after it alone, as the costs are not that great (its onshore). I personally think it was a really great decision to raise some money, as they now can fund both the exploration and the development part of the core business. This play will be targeted at the end of 2019.

So we will have an expansion of the core business and aim to end 2019 with around 2500 - 3000 bopd ( I believe 3000 are more than realistic but lets keep it conservative) and get 3 explorations that could be a gamechanger for TXP All of them Individually. I forgot to add, that shell already told us, that they would take the gas, as their pipeline has room for more volume, and it would be relatively easy for us to connect it to there infrastructure only 3 km away.

So this combination of low risk expansion, and high potientiel exploration, is a perfect business model for investors that like great upside potientiel, but not to risk everything on it. R/R is simply amazing in this company.

Tax in T&T

Its not everything that is positive in T&T. Their taxation system is horific. And it is especially the tax called SPT, which kicks in when brent trades above 50 USD. This tax keeps companies from investing in T&T which have resulted in declining production Y/Y. The effect can be measured on the LNG where the government decided to remove SPT. It has actually resulted in rising production. 19 february upstream wrote an article of the pressure oil companies have started to put on T&T Regarding the SPT, and Even former Energy minister have been out criticising the tax. So if they want the necassary investment made in their country, they will have to concider doing a tax reform, which actually could already happen in marts. This could be the cherry on the cake for shareholders. Another good Thing that happened recently was that stateowned petrotrin closed there refinary. Petrotrin was taking between 13-20% discount on brent prices, but the decision to close, will take the selling price closer to brent price. It already now is below 13%. So here we could also see improvement on balancesheets 2019. hxxps://energynow.tt/blog/trinidad-amp-tobago-players-pushing-for-tax-reforms

This became a bit longer than i was planning so think I will conclude here.

TXP is valued at around 22 mil USD, they have a debt of 12 mil CAD and a self funding drilling programme. This is a ridicilous valuation of a company that have done everything right, and have more than 18,5 mil P2 reserves. When Paul Bay was asked how this could be, he simply said, that "we Are the New Boy in town, we have to prove we can get the oil up, then we will be valued as our Peers" this statement sounds very familiar to what Jonas from maha Energy said when traded at Around 6 sek.

We actually, only on ortoire, have an unrisked valuation of 1.700.000.000 cad, according to an Independent research rapport released 17. January. I find the core business of txp alone, could more than defend a valuation of 25 mil USD, and can with much confidence conclude that ortoire isent priced in at All. So I think this company is a great opportunity for those looking for a great R/R case, with lots of upside to be made. I am very much aware that, there are companies out there, with much greater upside, but then they would most probably have more risk as well. I dont see txp with much down side, if Any, from here. The equity done recently is also a sign of that. It was done with almost No discount at All, and biggest shareholders did there part. So this is actually a company I would be able to sit in Even if markets get ugly, because value is there, and extremely ecxiting triggers Lie ahead. I want to end this with a part of the i dependent research made on the Ortoire block, released as a PM 17. Jan.

In a Jan. 17 research note, analyst Bill Newman reported that "large resource upside [was] confirmed" on Touchstone Exploration Inc.'s (TXP:TSX) Ortoire block in Trinidad through the just released NI 51-101 compliant resource update. The report "highlights the potential to more than double the value of the company," he added.

Newman relayed the specifics of the identified resource. Prepared by GLJ Petroleum Consultants Ltd., the report determined there exists, in the three exploration prospects on Ortoire, "a net unrisked P50 contingent and prospective recoverable resource of 21.8 million barrels of oil equivalent (21.8 MMboe) with a discounted value (NPV10%) of $255.1 million ($1.98 per share)."

As for the net unrisked contingent recoverable resource alone, the report outlines a best case P50 of 3 MMboe with an NPV10% value of $34.4 million, or $0.27 per share. GLJ calculated a 100% chance of discovery, given Ortoire is in a producing basin near other producing fields and service equipment is easily accessible. GLJ rated the chance of commercialization at 95%.

Regarding the net unrisked prospective recoverable resource, the report presents a best case P50 of 18.8 MMboe with an NPV10% value of $219.7 million, or $1.70 per share. GLJ gave it a "relatively high" average discovery chance of 35.7% as several large discoveries
surround the Ortoire block.

I am invested heavily in txp and this is only meant as inspiration, please due your own DD :)