Touchstone Exploration Share Discussion Threads

[mount teide] 26/10/2018 16:17

Che7win - looks like we managed to move SCAP off the 18.2p ask - now up to 18.5p

[che7win] 26/10/2018 16:15

I've rebought 10k here that I previously sold at 21p.Also been buying heavily in I3E.The way I see it, Shale oil is plateauing because of transport restrictions along with the white elephant that fracking isn't profitable.Oil demand around 100m bopd and demand has been rising at 1.5m barrels per year since 2012.Where is new oil going to come from - politics is now back at the forefront of moving oil, especially when there is no spare capacity which has increased risks to supply.

[crooky1967] 26/10/2018 15:51

Touchstone have just tweeted that Paul Baay will be presenting live on at 7pm 31st October.

[mount teide] 26/10/2018 15:11

Interesting L2 set up: SCAP has dropped the ask to 18.2p, the next two are at 19.0p and 20.0p

Tested the 18.2p by way of CFD and managed to add another 100k

[ileeman] 26/10/2018 14:44

More wells before the end of December, great buying op currently. Just wider markets correcting a bit once it calms down should rise aggresively.

[shanklin] 26/10/2018 08:40

Saw the share price drop here and thought Brent crude must be down to $60/barrel. But no, it is still $76/barrel

[buffythebuffoon] 25/10/2018 14:46

MT, your last paragraph could cause this board to briefly turn into a ‘What did the Romans do for us’ sketch.....

Buffy

[mount teide] 25/10/2018 14:13

One of the most remarkable oil market statistics is that since 1980 while consumption in the UK/Europe and USA collectively has not gone up at all, in China, SE Asia and India it has increased by a collective 24 million bbls a day.

This increase is equivalent to 24 times the annual oil production output of the North Sea - and yet today Chinese and Indian oil consumption per capita has still only risen to just one seventh (14%) and one eleventh (8%) respectively of that of the USA.

Since 1980 there have been few certainties in life other than death, taxes and the growth of oil consumption in SE Asia, China and the Pacific Rim (the chart has followed a 45 degree line for 38 years).

[mount teide] 25/10/2018 12:08

After oil and copper market capital investment fell over 60% between 2013 and 2016, its a paradox that although the supply and demand curve has since been strongly signalling a need for it to rapidly rise, commodity pricing is still to reflect this, resulting in the industry largely continuing to sit on its capital investment hands (outside of the heavily loss making US oil shale sector).

A similar situation occurred in the early 2000's and led eventually to a huge spike in the price of copper and oil to drive up investment in new production.

On the balance of probabilities the very low level of new investment in this latest cycle is actually playing into the hands of investors with the foresight to take exposure to the oil and copper sectors since as every day passes the certainty of either much higher or very much higher pricing grows - as the demand from the 4.5 billion population Chinese, SE Asian and Indian economic/urban infrastructure development juggernaut is still in its infancy, accelerating and has many decades still to run.

[mr. t] 25/10/2018 11:56

I find it amazing how so many pundits say oil prices are too high at $80, when we've been used to it for 10 years!

And in the last 10 years:

- Inflation means the real oil price today is cheaper. E.g. US consumer prices are 15% greater now than in 2008.

- As this chart shows - the world today gets 30% more gdp per unit energy compared to 1990.



- even with that energy efficiency, global oil demand has increased by over 10% since 2008:



- due to a combination of the recent price crash, the difficulty in reaching new resources, and negative political aspects (e.g. deepwater horizon, government tax hikes, climate change concerns, talk of peak demand, resources in unstable or hostile countries) investment in finding & developing new oil & gas supply has been low - with the odd exception like US shale. This has longer term consequences on oil prices.

Talk of renewables & electric vehicles rendering oil worthless is a noble aspiration, but I'm betting it's a long way from reality for quite a few years yet.

Barring a global depression or a surprising supply upside, and ackowledging there'll be volatility along the way, I think we'll see oil prices at this level or higher for sometime to come.

Good news for TXP and its shareholders.

[mount teide] 25/10/2018 10:59

The average price of Brent since 2008 has been $79.5 - during this period the Dow has appreciated 293% from its low.

Having a economist by training at the wheel employing smart oil price hedging during the height of the brutal oil sector recession during 2013-2016 enabled TXP to largely avoid what happened to TRIN - 158p to 1.75p fall in share price followed by a 300% dilution at a 97% discount to the 2014 share price high)

[mr. t] 25/10/2018 09:42

Even after the recent drop in oil price, spot Brent is still over $75 - about $5 greater than the average price through H1 this year.

Near term oil price is important for TXP to fund its large investment program, and to provide debt and equity investor confidence.

One of the main reason I'm invested though is that I think the mid to long term economics for high quality oil & gas producers is strong - and the market has not accounted for it in the forward curve, oil price forecasts, or company share prices.

This woodmac research is an example of why I think TXP is investing at just the right time:



"Wood Mackenzie said recovery from the recent downturn has been much slower than in previous cycles and annual spending is around £77billion too low to sustain production and ensure future demand growth.

The firm predicts annual spending will reach £386.5billion in the early 2020s.

This is far below the peak of £579.8billion peak in 2014 and WoodMac said this needs to increase to at least £463.8billion through the next ten years."

[mount teide] 25/10/2018 09:06

China and India with a combined population of 2.8bn (3.5 times the EU and USA combined) are along with the US, the World's largest oil importers.

Despite rising prices Chinese and Indian oil imports in tonnage terms have surged in 2018 by more than 6.0% over 2017 - in line with current GDP growth.

While Chinese Nat Gas imports in 2018 are currently up by a staggering 34% over 2017 after a number of new LNG import terminals commenced operations and others expanded capacity.

To date in Q4/2017 Brent has averaged $80.5 against $73.0 in Q3. While TXP's production is averaging more than 15% higher than in Q3.

[sleveen] 25/10/2018 08:16

I have the 250k buy @ 20p timed at 13.35pm.

So that trade's "in the price"

[sleveen] 25/10/2018 07:58

Brasso3

Thought I would add a bit of balance to the Brent up $1/bl brigade.

[lauders] 25/10/2018 07:54

With the DOW down around 600 points yesterday and the bearish stance now developing in the markets it may not go higher in the near term iLeeman. Certainly hope I am wrong as I am a shareholder, but I just think that "going up" is going to be limited for a while. Please let me be way off the mark ;-)

[ileeman] 25/10/2018 07:51

Yup massive buy I did say they are filling a buy order. Market makers would take a huge amount of shares.

Question is how many more do they want clearly market makers are holding the book to fill it, how many newbies can the markets get into selling up before they take it higher.

[brasso3] 25/10/2018 07:13

You sold out again Sleveen?

[sleveen] 25/10/2018 07:00

POB $10/bl less than the recent high.

[mount teide] 24/10/2018 19:36

Lowering the bid back to 19.0p today freed up enough stock to allow a 250,000 buy at 20.0p to be filled; reported after the closing bell.

[mount teide] 24/10/2018 08:40

Canadian crude oil since late September has been selling for just $20 bbl - a discount of $50 to WTI such has been the impact of pipeline bottlenecks and the US Refinery maintenance season.

The discounts mean that the oil industry in Alberta is currently losing around $100 million per day, according to GMP FirstEnergy and CBC.


Why Is Canadian Crude Selling For $20? - OilPrice.com

[sleveen] 23/10/2018 16:27

POO not helping that's for sure.

[ileeman] 23/10/2018 12:10

Market makers happy to take a lot of shares again. Indicates more background buyers soaking it up.

[ileeman] 22/10/2018 19:03

Surprised there is not more people loading up on the back of the holdings RNS. Looks like the significant holder most have loaded up quite a bit above 20p.