Touchstone Exploration Share Discussion Threads

[grannyboy] 15/10/2018 13:56

Ho dear, costax....this from someone who was pumping DISH to high heaven only for it to halve in value...

You have as much credibility for giving investment advice as jeremy corbyn has on promoting capitalism!!!

FOOL..

[costax1654x] 15/10/2018 13:48

It might even fall more !On this dodgy market with dodgy directors profit is the key!

[costax1654x] 15/10/2018 13:42

They need to make profit!!!In fact they can have 100000 barrels per day without to make profit is overvalued

[ileeman] 15/10/2018 10:11

3000+ bopd 2019 in a forward thinking market you would expect shareprice to start picking up significantly soon. Oil near highs.

[highly geared] 15/10/2018 08:14

Brent back up c. $1.00 overnight and solidly above $80. Churning out significant revenues and production, pushing beyond 2000bopd.

[zengas] 12/10/2018 15:24

I listened to his interview earlier. All the wells will be drilled by December with some not on stream at that date but would definitely all be drilled.

Faster incremental growth to come from development drilling and I would like to think we will be making strong progress over the next 6 months towards a realistic 3000 bopd. He called 2,000 bopd as only the start.

On the exploration front, a good number of the old Ortoire wells tested significant gas and oil, some bypassing oil and some wells never having reached their intended target or having completion issues from 50-60 years ago. Could be some very promising upside from this side of things alone.

[mount teide] 12/10/2018 14:57

Year end estimated field production anyone?

Here's my thoughts:

TXP expects to drill all 6 remaining 2018 Production development wells by mid December according to Paul Baay yesterday.

The estimated current production of 2,015 bopd includes new production from six of the fourteen 2018 wells drilled to date. Contribution from the Coora 2 wells is negligible(less than 20 bopd) until the primary Lower Forest Formation is brought into production.

Estimated year end production figure?
Assuming 4 of the 6 wells to be drilled are on production by year end - lets say an average 50 bopd each - add to this say 50 bopd each for the two Coora 2 wells. Let's assume 50 bopd for field declines by year end.

This would give an estimated year end figure of circa 2,315 bopd with two further wells to come into production in early Jan 2019.
With three wells carried over into 2019 before going into production then 2,265 bopd.

After yesterday's Ops Update Paul Baay's 2,100 bopd target for estimated current field production for the end of 2018 now looks conservative.


Current market cap; £27m .

[walter walcarpets] 12/10/2018 14:52

Still a ridiculous valuation. Come on Mr market - wake up!

[awise355] 12/10/2018 14:49

"Wouldn't want to be out of this over the weekend" comes to mind

[ileeman] 12/10/2018 14:27

Bought some today looks very very cheap, can see 30p fairly quickly here.

[walter walcarpets] 12/10/2018 09:45

ta sleveen.

[sleveen] 12/10/2018 08:32

proactive interview and presentation now in header.

[captainfatcat] 12/10/2018 07:47

Spangle thanks for the heads up on the presentation.

[highly geared] 12/10/2018 07:32

Brent back up over 1% overnight,now around $81.30.
Will be interesting to see if the main markets bounce later today after the 1000 + point fall on the DOW over 2 days.
Oil over $80 seems here to stay...

[spangle93] 12/10/2018 01:31

Corporate presentation update/evolution.

No radical departures from previous month, and some slides could do with an update, e.g. slide 13 still only shows production to the end of June, slide 9 doesn't update share price movements. The RNS this morning already supersedes this presentation.
I didn't go through all the end notes but at a glance they looked pretty similar

Changes from september presentation

Slide 3 (corporate summary) and slide 4 (board and executive) are new

Slide 6 - one new employee, clarification of working interest, rather than net, acreage (Presumably cos someone pointed out it was a different figure to that showing the same information on slide 11)

Slide 7 - net debt information repositioned
Slide 15 - updated with new well footage information
[the data source they refer to is available here, updated to June 2018 which is ahead of this slide. Maybe one for the header?]



Main change is that more information on the Ortoire block Coroson West targets is provided.
slide 21 - (vs previous slide 19). Now 120ft hydrocarbon thickness (previously 94ft), plus shallow seismic anomaly mentioned.
Suggestion of a deeper target below the previous one, at 9,200ft, which I believe is new information, and would indeed indicate why a well could cost up to $5MM, though unclear whether the well (TD 7,500ft stated) would try to target it.

[spangle93] 11/10/2018 23:44

Mount T - thanks again for sharing your research - it certainly isn't straightforward.
I think we know where the advisers to the UK government on tax matters go for their holidays. :-(

[mount teide] 11/10/2018 23:35

Spangle - as a rough guide it would appear at $80 oil and 2000 - 2500 bopd in 2019, if TXP drills 4 wells a quarter the drilling of one of them could be funded from savings made in reduced SPT - because the actual production figure that would be used for SPT purposes under the rules would range from 1,500 up to 2,000 bopd during the year.

[highly geared] 11/10/2018 23:08

The great thing here is TXP is materially undervalued based on where it is now and the 2019 existing field programme.
Ortoire is pure upside but that upside could be multiples of current production..
About as good a risk/reward play as you can get....

[mount teide] 11/10/2018 23:01

Thanks CFC - so 14 production development wells in 2018 followed by up to 15 production development wells and up to 5 Ortoire exploration wells in 2019.

In less than two years Paul Baay is looking to drill 29 production development wells and up to 5 ultra high impact Ortoire 'low risk' exploration wells.

The guy certainly knows how to 'sweat the assets' in the early years of a new oil market cyclical recovery stage when $80 Brent is on offer. Looks like he is replicating the successful MO he used during the previous oil market recovery stage in 2000-2008 to take a new company from scratch to 20,000 bopd.

I hope the managers of my TRIN investment watch this lastest TXP video - TRIN are giving us 12 production development wells in the same 24 month timeframe. Perhaps they can explain why they can't offer a similar level of production development drilling as Paul Baay(never mind the exploration drilling)considering how cash rich many of us have helped them become this year.

[spangle93] 11/10/2018 22:49

Thanks CFC, very interesting as always to hear him explain the background.

Compared to the header from September's conference notes, they are now talking 4-5 wells on Ortoire next year, still starting in Q2, with the intent of twinning (i.e. drilling close to) existing exploration discoveries to reduce risk.

I was starting to become concerned that they were running out of time to deliver another 6 wells this year, but drilling is planned to start next week, and based on their experience of 50 wells, they are confident in having them all drilled and completed by Xmas, although not all will be brought on line this year.

There was one gurgle at a critical place. I heard that the "combined targets were 300 MMbbl oil in place @&$*& gas". Did anyone make sense of this?


Mount T - ref 3159 - thanks for the explanation. Does this mean we're more likely to pay SPT if we've only drilled 1 well in Q3. Or is SPT small enough at 2,000 bbl/day that one well's capex allowance will cover it?

[novicetrade68] 11/10/2018 22:07

Two delayed 50k trades were paying 20.90p, and a 45k at 20.90 published late too, sometimes very difficult to get a feel for this share when trades are systematically being delayed.

[mr. t] 11/10/2018 21:31

Thanks captainfatcat. Paul Baay, competent and confident as ever. I might buy some more shares if we get a share price drop.

[captainfatcat] 11/10/2018 20:50

New interview with Paul Baay from Proactive investor, just seen it posted on the lse site

[highly geared] 11/10/2018 20:01

With a healthy POO environment ( Brent at $80) and assuming a 9 month increase to 3000Bopd and with net backs $40-$50, gross profits will be pushing £30 million annualised. Even with the modest debt and reinvestment into gdrilling, the market cap is ludicrous.

If Ortoire comes up trumps, what value then?
It’s hard to see why we’re below £50 million market cap on the back of today’s update. We have accelerated and proven production, operational excellence, great management, a buoyant oil price market and healthy P2 reserves.