Touchstone Exploration Share Discussion Threads

[tektonik] 07/11/2018 10:29

Always nice to see management reach into their pockets to buy more shares. Excellent stuff.

[tektonik] 07/11/2018 10:29

Always nice to see management reach into their pockets to buy more shares. Excellent stuff.

[mount teide] 06/11/2018 21:38

T&T's Point Fortin LNG terminal and its Nat Gas producers should be reaping the benefit of soaring demand for LNG, which has seen shipping rates rise an astonishing 450% since January.

The burgeoning demand, particularly from China and SE Asia has pushed LNG ship charter rates higher than post-Fukushima levels according to a note from Clarksons analysts.

Spot rates have hit $170,000 per day and a global shortage of these specialist ships may not only start to slow down the stellar growth of the LNG trade but could keep charter rates at an elevated level for some considerable time, as it takes an average 3 years from order placement to build one of these highly sophisticated $250m ships.

[che7win] 06/11/2018 15:57

MT,
I'm amazed how fickle the markets are. Early October, Brent was above $86 and there was an impending shortage, now the consensus has changed, but very little slack in the system.

I will continue to hold a sizable amount here, Paul Baay is delivering and Ortaire is a potential game changer, albeit short term oil prices have fallen.

I wanted to add in I3E recently, management there are very confident on funding.

[ileeman] 06/11/2018 13:49

I bought more oil longs and a few more TXP the other day.

Have the view that oil will retest and break 52 weeks highs over coming months.

[mount teide] 06/11/2018 13:38

che7 - may have picked up some of yours - cheapest i could buy another 100k during the last week was 19.4p - took them.

Take the view that Brent after returning back to its 10 year average price of $79 following 4 years plumbing the depths well below it, is increasingly likely over the medium term as a result of geopolitical issues, strong demand growth and highly attractive industry fundamentals, to average or exceed the 10 year average price during the next 2-3 years.

In such circumstances i believe a highly cash flow generative business such as TXP is likely to do very well.

AIMHO/DYOR

[che7win] 06/11/2018 12:28

I've sold quite a few 100 thousand here recently.

Down to a sensible holding now for me.

[celeritas] 05/11/2018 16:07

Had more of these today, steadily accumulating.

[ileeman] 05/11/2018 14:44

Oil price is turning, expect TXP to start turning aswell.

Great prices on offer.

[mount teide] 04/11/2018 19:09

The operating and drilling cost savings that TXP has worked hard to achieve since 2013 have, following the strong oil price recovery, positioned the company well over a 2-3 year outlook, particularly with commencement of the ultra high impact Ortoire exploration drilling programme now less than 5 months away.

While the T&T oil industry’s decline during 2013-2017 was savage and took a heavy toll; as Petrotrin exits the Refinery business and focuses on E&P, the cynic might suggest Energy Tax Reform to support this development now seems not only inevitable but probably imminent, since the Government for political gain will want to see the new State E&P company(run by many ex refinery people ) get off to a strong and successful(profitable) start following the huge embarrassment of Petrotrin's appalling near total reliance on the hard pressed T&T taxpayer to keep it afloat for nearly a decade.

[zho] 04/11/2018 15:04

Bloomberg: "U.S. sanctions designed to push Iran’s oil exports to zero come into force at midnight, but the hard line initially signaled by President Donald Trump is softening as the deadline approaches. With countries that have already cut their purchases to zero now being granted waivers to buy Iran’s oil, the country’s exports may well go up, not down, in November."CNN: "But some analysts are warning that oil prices are likely to renew their surge. Goldman Sachs and RBC Capital Markets are calling for Brent crude to end the year at $80 a barrel, 10% above current levels. "

CNN: "But some analysts are warning that oil prices are likely to renew their surge. Goldman Sachs and RBC Capital Markets are calling for Brent crude to end the year at $80 a barrel, 10% above current levels."

[mount teide] 02/11/2018 20:37

Would have liked to attend as the networking opportunity these Shares Investor evenings offer with the CEO's in the large hospitality room immediately following the Presentations are often invaluable; but will be flying out to Singapore on the 27th November.

Paul Baay is very approachable and a straight talker - I would urge any that can attend to do so for the networking opportunity - prospective attendees from Advfn could perhaps elicit questions from posters here for discussion with Paul at the networking opportunity.(Due to time constraints the organisers generally only allow one question per attendee at the Presentation Q&A).

Most of the attendees are generally City analysts types and PI's.

Came across the jewel that is CAML at the Shares Investor November 2013 evening at the same location - had an extremely free and frank One-on-One discussion with the straight talking CEO Nick Clarke following his presentation, that so impressed me that following subsequent research it led to CAML becoming a top 5 portfolio holding that I'm still averaging up to some 5 years later as the investment case continues to develop.

[walter walcarpets] 02/11/2018 19:44

Any feedback would be much appreciated.

rgds
walt

[crooky1967] 02/11/2018 18:30

Thanks Mr. T

I may attend as I work 30 mins away. I attended the last one at the same venue.

[king suarez] 02/11/2018 18:13

Thanks, Mr.T.

Anyone from the board thinking of attending? It's just up the road from my office...

KS

[mr. t] 02/11/2018 16:35

Touchstone Exploration is presenting at a Shares Investor Evening event in London on 28 Nov 2018:

[buffythebuffoon] 02/11/2018 10:08

"I know one or two peps who just don't get this..."

Not to mention at least as many peeps.

Buffy

[captainfatcat] 02/11/2018 07:35

MT "In the current oil price and well drilling cost environment, anyone in the Boardroom advocating paying down debt over production development need their heads read as they would be at extreme risk of getting taken away in a straightjacket."

Well said,

I know one or two peps who just don't get this...

[mount teide] 01/11/2018 21:36

CFC - 'The well recompletions and infill well drilling stuff might be boring buts its exceptionally low risk and highly profitable way to generate cash!

Exactly CFC - with Brent at sub $50 back in Q2/2017, Paul Baay raised more than a few eyebrows when he announced that a recession leaned TXP was commencing a programme of four infill production development wells across their assets in T&T - the first post oil recession onshore development wells on the Island for three years.

Some 16 months of production later, the four wells which cost circa $1 million each to drill and complete have collectively generated revenue of circa $12 million net of Petrotrin's Sales Tax - completely validating the decision.

And at $75 Brent the four wells are still currently producing revenue net of sales tax at the rate of $10m a year.

In the current oil price and well drilling cost environment, anyone in the Boardroom advocating paying down debt over production development need their heads read as they would be at extreme risk of getting taken away in a straightjacket.

[red rook] 01/11/2018 21:25

Regarding the Ortoire Drills:

There was a question in the webcast (at~20:50) about the chance of success (CoS) for the drills. PB gave it a CoS of around 20-25% ! These are not great odds, and seem pretty low considering the amount of historical drill data and current seismics they have.

[mr. t] 01/11/2018 15:54

Thanks for sharing Crooky, I always like hearing Paul Baay speak - he's competent with a great story to tell.

I like how he's open with the risks and negatives too, managing shareholder expectations. We heard that the discount to Brent for oil sales has widened this month (I imagine in part due to the changes at Petrotrin), and about the (already announced) disappointing coora-2 wells.

PB's a little more conservative on funds flow from operations forecasts at around $12m this year and $20m next (IIRC in an earlier projection he hoped for $12-14m this year and $20-25m next year). His forecast production for next year at 2,400 bopd sounds conservative - I was hoping for close to that in Q1 after this years' drills are all online. Either my assumptions are poor, or PB is giving himself room for out performance.

I liked the comments on the Board not wanting to add debt or equity, and investment being funded from cash flow. Related to this, the Chairman John Wright has 4,745,027 shares (just under 4% of the company - the third or fourth largest shareholder) and he attended every Board meeting last year. He'll have a strong motivation in making sure Board decisions are made in shareholders' best interest - nicely complementing Paul Baay.

Without Ortoire, TXP would be an attractive, well run, low risk company to invest in for exposure to oil production. With Ortoire, I think it's great.

[sleveen] 01/11/2018 13:23

Webcast added to header info.

[mount teide] 01/11/2018 12:40

Spangle - thanks - based my calculations rightly or wrongly on the following:

Since the 2017 wells generated hardly any decline in the first year - i used the average annual decline rate of circa 11.7% up to 1,500 bopd of production from the monthly production graph and excluded the production from the 2018 wells on the assumption that the performance would largely mirror the 2017 wells(little first year decline).

If we take the historical decline rate of circa 12% and assume production from the 2018 wells were to decline by the same amount during the first year then that would probably suggest two not one infill wells would be required in 2019 in addition to the annual well recompletion programme to offset the decline.

[crooky1967] 01/11/2018 12:06

Last nights TXP presentation is up on Valuethemarkets.com

[spangle93] 01/11/2018 11:57

Mount T "Average field decline rate (over 2ys 9 mths) = 13.9 bls / month" - according to the notes on Paul Baay's presentation in the header, base decline is 12%, which would equate to 240 bopd/year at 2000 bopd.