Totally Share Discussion Threads

[1gw] 21/9/2018 15:21

sikhthetech - feel free to add other bear points. What is it that concerns you most about your (huge) investment in tly?

[football] 21/9/2018 15:20

Lol STT that's 2 more bear points than R1 has got but it doesn't seem to stop you from bashing them 24/7 365 days of the year does it

[sikhthetech] 21/9/2018 15:16

well, if those are the only bear points, I'll continue to hold and add..

Nothing new there for me..

1. Financials... They had no problem raising money over the last 2/3 yrs...so for me, not an issue...
2. II selling.... LO & Miton were also selling other holdings, eg VRS before the share price surged, so I don't see it as just TLY related..
Killick - they trading on behalf of discretionary clients... they had sold some prior Apr 5th and bought more after.. seems like clients adjusting prior and post financial year..
Other II, yes I agree...

3. Yes, political changes can affect NHS as well everything else, eg Housebuilders, railways, police...

[cryto_charlie] 21/9/2018 15:08

punt at 3? bit risky.

[spacedust] 21/9/2018 15:06

Sorry for typo

[spacedust] 21/9/2018 15:05

Yes night at 120p many years ago. Saw price rise to 140p but didn't sell. The rest is history.

It fall as low as mms want it to and then it will continuously go up even on no contracts. At present there are multi millions of pounds worth of contracts. Do the sums and you'll see it's close to 100m. Any other aim share with multi millions ppund worth contract would have seen 10 baggers in price rise. Like I say o my when mms decide to turn this it will turn.

As for hedges selling well someone is picking them up just as easily. We have had recent holding rns.

[russiaguru] 21/9/2018 15:02

TLY does have one plus that now they would be bailed out by the government if they ever get close to bankruptcy due to how well embedded their services are in the NHS.

For employees its quite safe, for shareholders a very high risk play

[1gw] 21/9/2018 14:59

TLY bear case

Well, how about this for a starter. I see at least 3 main areas of support for the bear case:

1. Financials

Negative net current assets combined with negative operating cashflow is not a good position to be in. Combine that with the uncertainty of turning round a big low-margin business and you can argue for red flags.

2. Institutions selling

Institutions appear to be queueing up to sell:
3.3 million shares sold by Miton between October and May
2.9 million shares sold by Lombard Odier between October and June
0.6 million shares sold byKillik & Co between May and June
Up to 2.2m shares sold by Hargreave Hale since September 2017 (now below 3%)
Up to 2.2m shares sold by Schroders since October (now below 3%)

Who’s next? Are the MMs literally operating a queuing system on big sell orders?

3. Political uncertainty

What would a labour government mean for TLY? Even without wholesale nationalization, would the turmoil of NHS organizational change mean an existential problem for TLY given its weak balance sheet?

Disclosure: I am long TLY.
No advice intended, errors excepted, please do your own research.

[grahamwales] 21/9/2018 14:55

Mac

You should sell up

[macthepak] 21/9/2018 14:51

So let me see if I can understand this:

The company is profitable, they are winning contracts so that why the share price is falling?!

Totally Plc is in the healthcare industry, it is a non-cyclical defensive share if anything it should be increasing in price Brexit or no Brexit, recession or no recession etc etc

My bladder is telling me this is going to end bad for investors, I trust my waterworks and so should you!!

[cryto_charlie] 21/9/2018 14:20

^^^^^^ profitable?

[1gw] 21/9/2018 14:16

Careful nobby.
Beware irrational markets vs finite liquidity, or gambler's ruin issues.

[nobbygnome] 21/9/2018 14:09

The company is profitable.....


I continue to buy and bought some at 19.55 earlier and also increased my spreadbet at the same level. Patience is a virtue.....

[cryto_charlie] 21/9/2018 13:58

ive seen no good news here. just cash burn. soon totally gone plc.

[macthepak] 21/9/2018 13:52

Dear Spacedust

You bought this at 120p are you kidding me? Right?

If not then you must be a walking zombie at these prices.

But you are right about two things:

Firstly MM's are kings they fix and manipulate the market to their advantage.

Secondly despite winning contracts the price goes down the reason being, they tender for contracts, putting in offers that will end up making very little or no profit at all and often a small loss. So what is the point you ask? Exactly there is no point winning contracts ends up costing Totally Plc hence the fall in share price when ever they win a contract!!

Sikhthetech is now making it out that everyone will be ringing 111 to get access to the NHS, translating to big profits for Totally Plc, but what people do not realise there is no one to take the calls!!! Look at all the vacancies for call handlers and clinical staff!!

[spacedust] 21/9/2018 13:49

I doubt it. 19p then 16p. No matter what news it just seems like this will carry on going down. Mms are kings.

[1gw] 21/9/2018 13:37

So is that support gone? Or can it claw it's way back?

[sikhthetech] 21/9/2018 09:54

Expand the NHS 111 and use the Integrated Care System...Direct all patients via NHS 111... they will triage the patients... The system is there...


Patients could have to start booking appointments in A&E units, and those with only minor ailments wait many hours before they are seen, under a proposed shakeup of NHS targets.

"But A&E staff say it is unclear who would triage – assess – patients who ring."

[spacedust] 21/9/2018 09:45

1gw I bought 2 tranches. Once at 120p and this year at 23p. So no I am not making a bear out of this.

And no I have not sold. Just saying that I have seen this go down when fantastic news has been issued. Have u not ever seen this end up red on good news ?

[cryto_charlie] 21/9/2018 09:34

^^^^^^^muggings

[grahamwales] 21/9/2018 09:18

Wow Sikh must really be pi ssing you lot off this morning pmsl

[cryto_charlie] 21/9/2018 09:04

on this one, POS and stinking ship come to mind.