Totally Share Discussion Threads

[sikhthetech] 03/1/2024 14:28

Post H1.

Increase capacity NHS resilence - potential to increase the original £10m to £20m for this year!


Obviously 1gw and his mates will say the "31 March 2023" typo error is a major red flag!!!

"As we enter what is traditionally the busiest period of the year for healthcare, there are opportunities to further expand support for resilience services and we are working to ensure that we retain the capacity within the organisation to meet demand. We have recently mobilised additional capacity for NHS England 111 Resilience work, in addition to our continuing 111 contract as NHS England's Resilience partner (mobilised in April and valued at GBP10 million). During October 2023 we delivered considerable additional capacity demonstrating our ability to respond rapidly to increased demand. The additional capacity agreed for the period 1 October and 2023 to 31 March 2023 has the potential to double the revenue originally confirmed for the original NHS 111 resilience contract."



;-)

[sikhthetech] 03/1/2024 14:24

£2.7m cash as of end of Oct.

New contracts signed - they passed that organisation's risk assessment then!


"New contracts secured in the period contributing GBP14.8 million of annualised revenue."

[sikhthetech] 03/1/2024 14:20

1gw,

All organisations have risk assessments.

You can say the same about any company, whether it be a ftse 100 or AIM.

Like all businesses, TLY will win and lose contracts.

You're showing desperation.

[1gw] 03/1/2024 14:17

It may well be that management genuinely expects to be cashflow positive in 2H (helped by the £2.9m delayed receipt) and that they don't expect to need to raise funds, but what is their confidence in that expectation?

i.e. they probably don't "expect" to lose any negative working capital contracts (with the consequent cash implications). But what would an independent observer assess to be the risk of them incurring a net loss of such contracts in the half?

Remember the University Hospital of North Midlands (October 2023) meeting minutes discussing potential supplier failure:

"Totally plc sustainability"

"If totally not awarded the regional 111 contract (that is currently under evaluation)

This will impact on their operational delivery model within the SSOT system. Totally currently have two 111 contracts (SSOT and National resilience)

Resulting in the model potentially not being sustainable or viable for delivery. If this were the case, this would impact on the SSOT 111 and GP OOHs services."

and update (just ahead of the meeting) dated 18th September:
"5. EPRR have been requested to support initiate Business Continuity Planning to support next steps in terms of resilience for our system and potential provider failure"

See post 20461 for more details and link to risk evaluation.

[sikhthetech] 03/1/2024 14:15

1gw

End of Oct cash balance was £2.7m, so cash increased from H1 end.

The rest of your post is assumptions. All your previous stories pre-H1 haven't come true. So you now telling stories about cash!!! You do post a lot of rubbish.

Facts:

TLY receive cash monthly from the NHS.

H2 is the busiest period and will be even busier this time due to the junior doctor's strikes.


So.. you assuming that TLY will not receive any more cash since end of Oct but will have only outgoings? Really?

Desperation showing. Very one sided.

[1gw] 03/1/2024 14:03

Just on cash and the £2.9m, it is worth considering what Lisa is telling you in slide 12 of the interims IMC presentation where she shows month-end cash balances from April to October inclusive, and a daily cashflow chart below that.

End-September balance is shown as £1.7m as per the interims. End-October balance is shown as £2.7m, an increase of £1.0m.

So assuming one (or more) of the larger green October bars on the daily cashflow chart is the £2.9m delayed receipt ("£2.9m NHS debtor which was paid shortly after period end"), it appears the company still consumed nearly £2m in October excluding the delayed receipt.

i.e. the charts appear to be showing:
£1.7m End-September cash balance
+£2.9m Delayed receipt
-£1.9m October cash movement excluding delayed receipt
£2.7m End-October cash balance

[sikhthetech] 03/1/2024 11:50

Pierre,

"I didn't forget to mention the £2.9m - I didn't know about it"

That's the problem, you're commenting on a company you know nothing about.
Best to read the company/sector newsflow.



Look at their past figures. Cash grew from 2019 to 2022, even during covid.
They bought Pioneer Healthcare (now part of Elective Care), which has significantly higher margins than Urgent Care. They also bought Energy Fit Pro, again significantly higher margins than UC. Both those buys were over the past 3odd years.



fy period, revenue, cash, adj Ebitda
2016 £4m, £1m, £1.4m
2017 £21.3m, £11.3m, £5.6m
2018 £42m, £10.2m, £0.2m
2019 £78m, £7.5m, £1.1m
2020 £105m, £8.9m, £4m
2021 £113M, £14.8m, £5m
2022 £127.4m, £15.3m, £6.2m
2023 £135.7m, £6.5m, £6.9m
H12024 £55.8m, £1.7m, £0.6m


Like the NHS, TLY said they were impacted by inflationary pressures impacting staff wages etc. That is temporary, as most of their contracts are inflation uplifting clauses.



"Just as a matter of interest since reading this board everything seems, and seemed all year, hunky dory - why has the price fallen 80/90% or whatever it is, over the last year?"

Everything on HVO board has been hunky dory for years.
Why did the price of HVO fall from around 40p to 10p, or 75% in less than 3 years???

[parob] 03/1/2024 11:43

Thanks Pierre,I watched the fall all the way down but think it's oversold now and has a good chance of recovering from this MCap. All my buys are under 5p with the lowest at 4.3p and as I've mentioned this is a trade for now but I will re-assess depending on news-flow.It would we nice to see a contract or two land over the next few weeks and for the double-bottom on the chart to be confirmed.

[pierre oreilly] 03/1/2024 11:36

Parob, I didn't forget to mention the £2.9m - I didn't know about it, otherwise I would have mentioned it.

So, a stay of execution for 3 months. Good luck with that.

Are they expecting any more late payments in the low millions?

'We have no plans for cash raising at the moment'. They (most companies) can, and will, say that up to a minute before they make such plans.

Just as a matter of interest since reading this board everything seems, and seemed all year, hunky dory - why has the price fallen 80/90% or whatever it is, over the last year?

[sikhthetech] 03/1/2024 11:31

The advantages of TLY's diversified business model. When 1 of their divisions slows, the others pick up. Exactly as happened during covid, planned care stopped but NHS 111 surged.

TLY diversified business model
1) NHS Urgent Care, NHS 111, Urgent Care centres
2) Elective Care
3) Company wellbeing services.

Because of the Junior Doctors strikes, A&E will be overwhelmed. Patients have the choice to sit in A&E for hours on end or phone NHS 111 or attend an Urgent Care Centre, both part of TLY's diversified business model.





PEOPLE are being urged to use NHS 111 for all non-emergency healthcare, as the junior doctors strike commences today, Wednesday 3.









"The action will not only have an enormous impact on planned care, but comes on top of a host of seasonal pressures such as Covid, flu, and staff absences due to sickness - all of which is impacting on how patients flow through hospitals.""

[parob] 03/1/2024 10:42

Pierre, I am also in HVO and am loving the share price action there.Re TLY, you forgot to mention that £2.9M came in as a late payment from an NHS client just after the interims came out, as mentioned in the recent presentation:hTTps://youtu.be/uTWJEQ9git0?si=BY2xDKocCQLunXU1In that presentation the CEO stated they don't have any plans to raise cash and believe they will be cash generative in H2.See clip here:hTtps://x.com/moilgas/status/1730497614007726526?s=46&t=_ybV

[pierre oreilly] 03/1/2024 10:38

Btw, If you look at hvo rising away again today - that is partly due to its very high and growing cash pile. No more loans, no vultures circling, zero chance of liquidation. No worries at all. Unusually low risk profile for an aim company.

[pierre oreilly] 03/1/2024 10:30

Net, why tf are you getting mixed up in this? I hope you're not of the view that it's fallen so much it must rise eventually?

Have you looked at the cash position. From all the numbers, it's cash cash cash which tells the only true and relevant story.

That due to the fact that cash is what keeps companies going. It matters not two hoots whether the story in the company is mega brilliant or not - without cash disaster lies ahead. (And imv, tly does't even have a half decent story to tell - ffs, the nhs is getting rid of external contracts of all types, eg nursing, where they have started their own agency instead of using very expensive outside agencies, and that is on going).

So what is tly's cash position, its lifeblood.

Well 9 months ago to mar it had £6.5m cash.

3 months ago to sep it had £1.7m cash.

If that doesn't ring alarm bells - totally irrespective of anything else at all - then I don't know what does.

A burn rate of about £1m per month. Expect something cashwise to happen in the next few weeks.

I'm sure I don't have to spell out what may happen. At the very best, more debt at rising rates. That's if they can get banks to lend.

Medium is vulture capitalists - and if you want 10 mill from them, they want 90% of the company shares and pis get shafted with 90/95% dilution. (Happened to me recently with my cannabis stocks - just too soon to invest there).

Worst is goodbye tly.

Surprised at your assessment of risk/reward here.

[netcurtains] 03/1/2024 08:19

that is roughly how I see it too.
Thanks..

[sikhthetech] 02/1/2024 12:54

Netcurtains,

Welcome.

The doctors strikes are temporary. It impacts the NHS and leads to even longer waiting lists.
GE this year, so the govn will want to resolve the dispute asap.

As it's GE, all parties will have to be seen to be reducing the waiting lists, so I'd expect more resources for private providers like TLY.
The longer the strikes go on, the more business will be available for private companies.



Longest-ever NHS strike will sink Sunak’s waiting list pledge, say health chiefs
Junior doctors in England call on government to make credible offer as Wednesday’s six-day walkout threatens to stretch service to limits




I continue to add.

[parob] 02/1/2024 12:45

Well I really like the risk/reward from this market cap.Once the double bottom on the chart is confirmed I think that will give buyers more confidence to jump in as the bottom will then be firmly in.

[grahamburn] 02/1/2024 10:25

That is taking the optimistic view, Parob.

If one was pessimistic or rather cynical (I wouldn't admit to being either), then one would be surprised if a Chairman-Designate DIDN'T buy shares.

Let's see if Stilwell brings some dynamism and operational efficiency to a business which used to have it under Bob, but seems to have lost its way.

[parob] 02/1/2024 10:18

Simon Stillwell recently spent £85K on shares just above this level so he obviously sees value here. I have continued to add under 5p.

[netcurtains] 02/1/2024 10:07

OK might be worth a very small punt.
The medical strikes (of various kinds) probably will end soon (touchwood)....

[parob] 02/1/2024 09:03

So Simon Stilwell has now started with the business. Let's see what he can bring to Totally this year. Hopefully seeing a double bottom going in on the chart. Max buy currently just 10K shares without going to NT with HL.

[pierre oreilly] 01/1/2024 10:19

But you have a very strange way of analyzing, and describing on bbs, companies.

T/O 100m eh?

Well the last interims, which plunged the price obviously, showed a 20% decrease in turnover.

And as if 't/o is vanity profits are sanity' isn't bad enough, the company reported a 1.9m loss on the plummeting turnover.

Not quite what you have reported to readers here is it?

It's no surprise to anyone you are down 80/90% here. Your analysis is just weird, and really nothing more than ramping.

Over at hvivo, where you have ignored all the positive factors which have doubled the price in 23, you have, all the time, deramped , again with weird views unrelated to pertain factors of the company.

Unfortunately for you, I think 24 will be a repeat of 23 for both companies, and for your ramping of tly and idiotic and totally counterproductive deramping of hvo.

Why? Do you like losing your own money as much as you try your hardest to lose everyone else's money?

Here's a salient tip. The director buy you ramp was small, and often directors make a small buy in an attempt to get the price up ready for a big sell. That's the type of info which help investors, not your rabid ramps and deramps.

Parob, soz you're involved here. Perhaps escape while you can still get 4 or 5p? I have concerns about the cash position and the eventual sole choice the directors may have in the near future, but I'll save that for a following post.