Totally Share Discussion Threads

[shazbo] 05/9/2022 22:49

Not only that, if you can’t actually attract the staff in the first place to fulfil the contracts you’re surely going to lose them. Pay over the odds to attract the staff, and paper thin margins disappear. Problems on all fronts here. Bob telling it like it is. Fair play to him.

[owenski] 05/9/2022 22:25

You never hear from Uncle Bob these days, I did wonder what he did to earn his wages here, and today he comes out with a caveat to warn of problems ahead, good old Bob.

That's the problem with service industry companys that essentially are wage heavy, inflation can be a big problem.

[sikhthetech] 05/9/2022 20:18

Owenski

"No longer endless cash for the NHS"

That's rubbish and completely misleading - you're getting desperate.

The NHS is always the govn's priority, whichever party wins...

It's suicidal for any govn to abandon the NHS.


"Truss has said that the NHS will be in her top three priorities. So, what do we know about her likely approach?

Expect support and money for the NHS. But a government giving tougher rhetoric for efficiency, productivity and delivery targeted at managers running the system.

The NHS’s challenges are well known – long elective waiting lists and waiting times, poor ambulance response times, a tough winter approaching, staff vacancies and unions sabre rattling for industrial action and higher pay, crumbling infrastructure, and more. Social care is in need and capacity shortages are exacerbating the NHS’s situation by bed blocking hospital patients. The NHS is also affected by the cost of living crisis, with hospital heating bills and ambulance fuel costs rising, and inflation reducing the value of the NHS’s budget."

[m5] 05/9/2022 19:13

Bounced off support at 35p, but now under the 200 dma, something it has not done since March.

[owenski] 05/9/2022 17:03

No longer endless cash for the NHS and wage bill gonna be heading up, margins will be squeezed here, Bob is giving out a heads up. This isn't a good business model in an inflationary environment.

[sikhthetech] 05/9/2022 15:02

Melody

"Most contracts have an inflationary aspect uplift to them"

Yes in the July presentation they did say that.
The question was asked about staffing/inflation etc and that was their answer.

I can't see any difference to what they have already stated.
Badly worded and incomplete statement but nothing new.
I think the key word here is 'Most'.

[melody9999] 05/9/2022 14:10

Re: staffing, recruitment and increasing costs.

I think the debate this morning - and the fall in the share price - is caused by the incompleteness of the statement. Surprising for an experienced operator like Bob Holt. Would you not also say something like 'I know the team are working hard to mitigate these impacts' and explain how?

Listening to a TLY presentation on 130722 I noted the following comment from the BOD:
"Most contracts have an inflationary aspect uplift to them"

Does anyone have further insight into this?

Would be interesting to hear feedback if anypne has attended the AGM?

[owenski] 05/9/2022 14:02

Not a good business in a high inflation market, this is a bloated wage machine, uncle Bob's warning should not be ignored, margins are going to tighten here.

[tim1478] 05/9/2022 13:57

Valuations are always high with fast growing young firms -- that said not all succeed. I agree it is difficult to value Totally and todays sharp reaction is a concern

[sikhthetech] 05/9/2022 13:53

There you go..

Liz Truss - will deliver on NHS... as was expected.

The govn priority is reduce NHS waiting times.

[imastu pidgitaswell] 05/9/2022 13:51

sikh - honest suggestion: stop trolling and winding people up with falsehoods; debate the merits or otherwise, consider alternative opinions, accept that people are entitled to an opinion that you might disagree with, and you might find a more productive response from others.

[sikhthetech] 05/9/2022 12:58

The comments are obvious and apply to the NHS and virtually every business in the country and in fact a lot of other countries. Inflation is a problem.


TLY has a diversified business which is growing strongly as can be seen from the results over the past 5 yrs.

Having NHS, HMP as their customers means business will always be there.
Everyone needs healthcare, whether the economy is in recession or not.



Imastu,
"the risks should growth slow."

Are you expecting people to stop using the NHS because the country is in a recession?? Really.

I would suggest the housing sector and construction are more at risk during a recession, don't you?


But then again you're never been interested in a honest discussion on TW. The fact the share price there has crashed due to the events I mentioned is of no interest to you..;-)




I see the trolls (1gw mates) are out in force today, as usual happens when there's an announcement. The same trolls have been saying for years that TLY is a failure but TLY has continued to grow. It says it all about the troll's agenda.
Owenski's PSN:
TRMR:
TLY:
Orph:

[imastu pidgitaswell] 05/9/2022 10:21

melody - I'm not anti this company, I'm just conscious of its valuation.

It is indeed growing and its numbers improving, it's just a question of how to value that, and the risks should growth slow.

Nothing is ever black and white or binary - everything has variables attaching, some predictable, some less so. Always good to debate honestly.

[owenski] 05/9/2022 09:19

Oh dear, looks like the wheels might be coming off this bloated wage machine business

"Looking ahead, we see opportunities for growth but also face the same challenging operating environment as the NHS and other businesses in relation to staffing, recruitment and increasing costs."

[microscope] 05/9/2022 09:16

So from 1.1 million ebitda in 2019, to 6.2 million in 2022.Thanks for the excellent timely reminder, ...stu pidgit... :)TLY continuing to display its year on year improvement. As with every business, recruitment and overheads face challenges under this government's inadequacies. Stating the obvious.Business wins however continue to flow in.End the day close to positive?

[farnesbarnes] 05/9/2022 09:03

Didn't think it was a particularly bad statement, but vague nonetheless. Unfortunate timing and highly rated, this is the normal volatility for the stock. Out for now as there is too much overhead supply for my liking.

[melody9999] 05/9/2022 08:52

you make a fair point Imastu ...but you also identify the direction of travel for TLY as the business grows and numbers improve

[gbcol] 05/9/2022 08:51

Great statement. Thanks Bob! Just what we needed today.

Yes, massive share price over reaction but what the hell was the point of that statement? They love an own goal this lot.

[imastu pidgitaswell] 05/9/2022 08:30

When it's trading at 75-80 times earnings, as it was, it's not that surprising really that it should come down from that multiple in this market environment:

Period.....revenue..........cash.......ebitda......Profit After Tax........EPS
2019......... £78m........ £7.5m........£1.1m..........(£1.5m) ..........(2.51)p
2020.........£105m.........£8.9m,.........£4m..........(£2.8m)...........(1.82)p
2021.........£113m........£14.8m..........£5m...........£0.3m.............0.17p
2022.......£127.4m........£15.3m........£6.2m...........£1.1m.............0.58p

"also face the same challenging operating environment as the NHS and other businesses in relation to staffing, recruitment and increasing costs"

[doobz] 05/9/2022 08:22

Easy top up for me this one :)

[melody9999] 05/9/2022 08:21

But massive share price overreaction. This is not oil exploration where the company announces a duster; this is an NHS service provider with long term revenues and services in high demand.

PLus 0.5p divi ex on Thursday

[johndoe23] 05/9/2022 08:15

Disappointing statement

[quazie12] 30/8/2022 22:45

FFS how skinny are the margins and the profits v sales. The bulls here need to get a grip