Toople Share Discussion Threads

[hottingup] 30/4/2019 22:32

It could be exponential growth because its a combination of contract value and customer numbers. Some contracts have higher value because they cover multiple premises. Note:


7 November 2018
Toople PLC
Update on Trading: Record Month for October 2018

The Company is pleased to report that during October it received the highest number of orders by contract value in one month in its history, making this a record-breaking period for the business. The contract value of signed customers for October 2018 will equate to revenue in excess of GBP250,000 for Toople over a 24 month period.

In addition, October 2018 saw the largest monthly number of directly contracted small businesses joining Toople which represented a 40% increase compared to prior months.

The Company believes that the current positive trading and sales outlook is further evidence of the successful implementation of its in-house sales strategy adopted earlier in the year.

The cost of acquisition per revenue generating unit, a key metric for Toople, has also reduced materially in October 2018, confirming that Toople's digital marketing continues to become more cost effective as the business scales.

[2mex] 30/4/2019 22:26

yes, comparison right now with Kcom customer base would put Toople share price at 2p.

..and FY19 should be 15,000 which would be Toople share price of 3p.

..but exponential growth confirmation and market anticipation could bring 3p sooner.

GLAH

[hottingup] 30/4/2019 22:23

0.2% or 10,000 SME’s = £20m to £28.4m = 2.154p to 3p
0.3% or 15,000 SME’s = £30m to £42.6m = 3.231p to 4.5p

5% or 250,000 SME’s = £504m to £710m = 53.85p to 75p

[2mex] 30/4/2019 22:21

hottingup

I estimate Toople wholesale + retail customer base as currently 10,000.

25 times that is 250,000 which is 5% SME market share.

[hottingup] 30/4/2019 22:19

Toop's expansion will be a lot more than 25x, which would probably only encompass just over 1% of the market, and they are aiming for at least 5%. The CEO has already said they could grow 40x without extra headcount.

[2mex] 30/4/2019 22:14

Chestnuts

That is a good point and there are overheads to overcome - the point of inflection where Toople becomes cash flow positive.

The interims will give people an idea of progress towards that "target" customer base.

Bear in mind that Kcom will not expand by 25 times.

Toople is aiming to expand by 25 times within 5 years (3 to 5 years).

The potential and aim for such expansion, together with evidence of progress towards it, should skew the share price positively. The market, when it sees that ambition is being realised, will react to the exponential growth imho.

[chestnuts] 30/4/2019 22:06

2mex

What i was trying to point out is if you only have 1 customer and over heads of £2m then surely a valuation is skewed until it comes a time that overheads diminishes and this should be taken into account when working valuations out especially in the early stages of the company.

[2mex] 30/4/2019 21:36

chestnuts,

Costs as a percentage will lower. Revenue will increase and will out-pace cost growth.

Costs already reduced materially in October 2018.

As the carriers see Toople become more significant they give Toople a better deal - they want the business from Toople.

Cost of customer acquisition is becoming lower all the time as business expands. That is because of Merlin.

"As a business we can probably grow exponentially 20 30 40 times bigger than we are today without actually having to add any heads into the business - That really is a key asset in terms of Merlin"

[hottingup] 30/4/2019 21:36

TOOP’s projected growth in market share (% or No of SME’s) with corresponding market capitalisation & share price, based on comparisons with recent takeover prices for KCOM (5% at £504m) and Daisy (7% at £1 billion [= 5% at £714m])

Market Share............Market Cap.......Share Price

0.1% or 5,000 SME's = £10m to £14.2m = 1.077p to 1.5p
0.2% or 10,000 SME’s = £20m to £28.4m = 2.154p to 3p
0.3% or 15,000 SME’s = £30m to £42.6m = 3.231p to 4.5p
0.4% or 20,000 SME’s = £40m to £56.8m = 4.308p to 6.0p

0.5% or 25,000 SME's = £50m to £71 = 5.35p to 7.5p

0.75% or 37,500 SME’s = £75m to £106m = 8.077p to 10.5p

1% or 50,000 SME's = £100m to £142m = 10.77p to 15p
2% or 100,000 SME's = £201m to £284m = 21.54p to 30p
3% or 150,000 SME’s = £302m to £426m = 32.31p to 45p
4% or 200,000 SME’s = £403m to £568m = 43.08p to 60p
5% or 250,000 SME’s = £504m to £710m = 53.85p to 75p

7% or 350,000 SME's = £705m to £995m = 75.39p to 107p

[hottingup] 30/4/2019 21:26

KCOM and Daisy also had overheads.

If anything Toop's Merlin system helps to reduce their overheads, as the provisioning of customers is automated.

TOOP's CEO (5/10/2018) 13 min 12 sec:

"we won't be a business that is lmited by customer growth because we've got to add head count into the business...as a business, we can probably grow exponentially, 20, 30, 40 times bigger than what we are today, without having to add any heads into the business, and that is a key asset in terms of Merlin...growth is exponential."

[chestnuts] 30/4/2019 21:16

Hotting up

Dont you think there is a point where overheads have to be taken in to account

[hottingup] 30/4/2019 20:47

So if TOOP already have 0.1% or 5,000 SME's

= £10m to £14.2m

= 1.077p to 1.5p

[hottingup] 30/4/2019 20:45

TOOP’s projected growth in market share (% or No of SME’s) with corresponding market capitalisation & share price, based on comparisons with recent takeover prices for KCOM (5% at £504m) and Daisy (7% at £1 billion [= 5% at £714m])

Market Share............Market Cap.......Share Price

0.1% or 5,000 SME's = £10m to £14.2m = 1.077p to 1.5p
0.2% or 10,000 SME’s = £20m to £28.4m = 2.154p to 3p
0.3% or 15,000 SME’s = £30m to £42.6m = 3.231p to 4.5p
0.4% or 20,000 SME’s = £40m to £56.8m = 4.308p to 6.0p

0.5% or 25,000 SME's = £50m to £71 = 5.35p to 7.5p

0.75% or 37,500 SME’s = £75m to £106m = 8.077p to 10.5p

1% or 50,000 SME's = £100m to £142m = 10.77p to 15p
2% or 100,000 SME's = £201m to £284m = 21.54p to 30p
3% or 150,000 SME’s = £302m to £426m = 32.31p to 45p
4% or 200,000 SME’s = £403m to £568m = 43.08p to 60p
5% or 250,000 SME’s = £504m to £710m = 53.85p to 75p

7% or 350,000 SME's = £705m to £995m = 75.39p to 107p

[2mex] 30/4/2019 19:37

dsct, it sounds like you are viewing zoomed in.

When you zoom in you will see the scroll bars appear.

The quick way to zoom out is to select "CTRL" and "-" at same time.

(zoom in "CTRL" "+")

I have viewed the header on a smaller laptop screen and it was fine.

Hope this helps

[azuli] 30/4/2019 19:15

Header absolutely fine on my Samsung Galaxy too, one of the best constructed and most informative on ADVFN imo.

[bobdown2] 30/4/2019 18:49

Headers very informative and it makes it easy to access relevant rns statements and CEO interviews..it's ok from my Samsung phone.

[realcooltrader] 30/4/2019 18:43

The header is fine on my desktop, are you using an ipad or iphone? Ever the contrarian, I believe that out of my four recent buys, TOOP is likely to succeed soonest.

[dsct] 30/4/2019 18:07

After watching for a while, I've decided to jump on the TOOP-band-wagon.

Out of 3 recent punts, I think TOOP is the least likely to succeed, purely based upon the ramp/de-ramp post on this and the other thread, but I'll take the risk, and IF I get the chance, I'll sell half and let the other half ride for free :o)

Speculative ? Definitely, which is why I'm classing this as a pure punt at the moment.
Will I be worried if it fails ? Not really, although it would be a shame.
Will I be pleased if it multi-bags ? Of course, but it won't have a major effect on my portfolio (unless it 100-bags ! lol)

If there's a drop on the soon to be expected results, and if I see potential, then I may double up - but that's a few IFs ! lol

I've got my figures at the ready to plug the results in, and will be interested to see what progress (or not) has been made.

GLA

p.s. Can the header be sorted out, as I quite often have to scroll across to read the posts ;^)

[queenwood] 30/4/2019 16:56

And while the market waits to catch up the mms will drop the price back to .4

[chestnuts] 30/4/2019 16:14

2mex

Sometimes the market thinks ahead so reaches 3p six months ahead of time and then awaits for the company to catch up.

[2mex] 30/4/2019 15:34

I estimate Toople's combined customer base as:
19H1 10,000
FY19 15,000

Referring to Top tips & hottingup's Kcom references:

Kcom has 5% SME market share and it has a market value of £504 million.

In comparison this would point to Toople having:
19H1 market cap £20million: share price 2p
FY19 market cap £30million: share price 3p

[queenwood] 30/4/2019 14:33

Just mms playing games

[ff2345] 30/4/2019 14:11

I do love a good old tree shake to get some PIs to sell....