Tlou Energy Share Discussion Threads

[satsuma1] 15/8/2018 08:47

Maybe i'm wrong but "Hold that thought - and remember it is you calling someone stupid for a change." sounds like you took me discussing your point and instead commented on past disagreements...

[donkey40] 15/8/2018 08:22

Well I wasn’t digging at you. Even you can spot the game Windy and Buzz are playing v me. Same krap over on HC. Must be hard for them to acknowledge I am being consistently on the money here though.

[satsuma1] 15/8/2018 06:37

Haha, oh Donkey, it amuses me that even when someone does agree with you even partly, you STILL have to try and dig at them. Surely proves that you just want to argue rather than discuss. Then you complain no one engages with you.

[donkey40] 14/8/2018 22:34

Hold that thought - and remember it is you calling someone stupid for a change.

Hold this further thought - it amuses me no end that the extent of cheerleader DYOR is to read the company’s website or the Unofficial site of guru Tidd (who has abandoned his site and gone AWOL - bad form). Given the moving sands of the Karoo, good luck with that so called ‘experts’;

[satsuma1] 14/8/2018 22:05

Put it this way, if this gets delayed again we’ll know for sure hat the government are just plain stupid

[mr.oz] 14/8/2018 21:58

Cheers guys, was thinking same so must've heard this on podcast. Would like to have seen something documented for some old fashioned reason

[ftangftang] 14/8/2018 21:39

Mr oz check out the TLOU company website The initial 10mw approach and scaling up is explained and mentioned often in podcasts over the last year or two Cheers Ft x2

[andrewsr] 14/8/2018 21:33

mr oz,

The CEO mentioned in an interview a while ago that revenues would be $10-15m for 10 MW and $100-150m for 100 MW, so no economy of scale.

[donkey40] 14/8/2018 21:10

Sats - I have read too many announcements and hear management say too many times about the supportive Govt and all that. Equally I am not saying the Govt are not behind CBM now. I think they are - but politics may make it slow going.
Tlou were hardly going to say it was an unproductive meeting now, were they. This RNS was more subdued that previous ones, so suggests mgmt may have learned to be more cautious with expectations mgmt.
I just have a gut feel that Ministry folks will need extra time to get ready - might be the OR or TA appointment. Don’t know. Surely Tlou and Seka can refresh their documents in a month so I doubt they will be cause of a delay this time - it was after all monumental and detailed first time around (ie woffle).

[satsuma1] 14/8/2018 20:34

Donkey, you were right before RE submission delay but the time between RFP announcement and submission date were far wider. It is a month between apparently productive pre submission meeting and the actual submission. Seems very close for a delay to be likely. Who knows though

[mr.oz] 14/8/2018 19:43

Ftx2. Please point me in the direction of the economics of initial 10MW plant.

Imv, TLOU would not do badly if this was more transparently explained in terms of expected revenues in a modular project growing in line with expanding reserve basev

[donkey40] 14/8/2018 06:05

Time to be proper scared:

“”Dollar funding was irresistibly cheap in the halcyon days of zero rates, when the G4 economies were adding $2 trillion (£1.6 trillion) a year to the international system through quantitative easing. It was also a Faustian Pact. “The weak links are being exposed and the dominoes are falling,” from Societe Generale

The Institute of International Finance thinks events in Turkey are just the start of a long and painful hangover for those emerging markets that drank deepest from this cup, with South Africa, Indonesia and Colombia next in line as the spigot is gradually shut off.“”

I really hate being a kill- joy but with Eskom technically bust and trying to secure refinancing, SAA and others equally as bad, southern african economies may well batten down the hatches ahead.

Purely my opinion this - just got a feeling that RFP submission date will be extended. Too much happening elsewhere and markets look like they are about to kick off and be nasty. Equally those with enough cash on hand to ride things out should prosper in due course. Interesting and scary times the noo.

[donkey40] 13/8/2018 18:14

10MW is hardly upscaling, is it. After trying since 2009 ....

Anyway I now get this company. What is there here? 10mw pilot, or whatever up to 10mw means. Something that is very detailed in a regulated process with no guarantee of success. 18 months to get to today, with 6 more before award. An award of ‘up to 10’ FFS. This is going to take forever. Certainly going nowhere fast.

[wheniamfree] 13/8/2018 17:59

Same story, always has been 10mw staged development and scaling up.

Take no notice of Plonkey.. he’ll spin you a yarn about anything.

[satsuma1] 13/8/2018 17:20

I love a chin wag mate :). But yes, a statement was made suggesting it’s downsizing despite the plans being the same

[satsuma1] 13/8/2018 16:30

How is this downsizing? Same target and plans as has always been...

[financethoughts] 13/8/2018 14:58

I understand your point, but don’t underestimate 2P & 3P resource numbers - this is a standard measure used in the industry, is independently measured, and can lead to direct alterations in Company valuation, specifically because sometimes companies or equity stakes are bought & sold on 2P figures alone.

I agree it seems mythical compared to flowing gas, but that’s the same across the industry, TLOU is no different here.

[mr.oz] 13/8/2018 14:50

Yes, needs more meat and less (risk) reliance on RFP. I'm wondering if that's why the operational notes came first today.

[financethoughts] 13/8/2018 14:41

Well it’s been very clear for a long time that TLOU want to eventually supply far more than 100MW (to Southern African region) but wrt this RFP, they propose to tender for an initial 10MW.

Anyone who has been reading their RNS’s will be clear on that, even if they eventually plan to scale that up after.

[donkey40] 13/8/2018 13:25

Does anyone still think Tlou are bidding for the full 100MW award?

“Tlou’s submission will outline an initial project of tenMW .... If successful in the RFP and following implementation of the initial project, the company would look at expansion.”

How many posts and how much emotion has been wasted here and elsewhere - clear as day - they are NOT bidding for the full 100. So they have NO chance to get the full 100, or anything remotely close coz they are submitting a bid under the RFP for up to ten.

[financethoughts] 13/8/2018 12:57

Difficult as they can’t (and shouldn’t) fabricate the truth, plus this justifies their pursuing multiple routes to market. Solid update I felt, including the cautionary tone re: RFP.