Nibbled on some TGA
Coal prices should uplift into year end!!!
Almost 50% net cash / with more due once premium for Newcastle Coal Exports in H1 2024 is sorted!!!
TGA has been an excellent range trade :) With a heft dividend to provide a cushion / safety :)
Will keep nibbling :) |
Since that director hedged his 500,000 shares on 3rd june, all this has done has gone down. |
Trading update v average, not expected to be great with weaker coal prices,but ongoing issues on SA railways a big headwind, only positive Australia performance good.,Would expect a halved interim dividend.
Need a 10%+ improvement in 2nd half coal price. |
I rarely trade a share but do with Thungela as the share price just reacts to the spot coal price. See this link for that:-
So over the last 12 months:-
Sept 2023 ….coal peaked at $162 and TGA peaked at £8.
November 2023 ….coal down to $120 and TGA down to £5.80
Feb 2024 ….after a bounce coal fell to $115 and TGA also bottomed then to £4.15
April 2024 …coal bounced to $145 and TGA bounced to £6.30.
TODAY. Coal $133 and share down to £5.10.
Ideally the current coal price fall needs to continue to around $120 to $125 to give the next TGA buy trading opportunity. Now might be too early… but best way to decide that is to monitor the spot coal price.
Also note the coal bubble peak of $444 in Sept 2022. Thungela share price also peaked then at £18.
It’s also worth keeping an eye on the next ex dividend date as there’s also a strong case to buy and get that big dividend. |
Any suggestion what the next dividend payment might be, I think it’s august September time |
I think Thungela is a share to hold for the income it generates. Variations in the share price should be pretty much ignored ... except for the opportunity they occasionally provide to buy future income cheaply. |
Politics ?? Why the big drop |
Have we picked up a shorter... |
Since yesterday RNS this has gone down hill |
And another buy 10,000@550 |
Nice buy 10,000@550 |
Higher lows and higher highs bodes well |
The ANC had held a majority in the country since the landmark result of 1994 which ended apartheid and brought the party to power under Nelson MandelaThe African National Congress (ANC) party has lost its parliamentary majority in South Africa.The historic election result puts the country on a new political path for the first time since the end of the apartheid system of white minority rule 30-years-ago.The ANC had held a majority in the country since the landmark result of 1994 which ended apartheid and brought the party to power under Nelson Mandela.But now, with 99% of the votes counted, the ANC has received just over 40% in Wednesday's election.The final results are yet to be formally declared by the independent electoral commission that ran the election, but the ANC cannot pass 50%. At the start of the election, the commission said it would formally declare the results by Sunday, but that could come earlier. |
When's the results known... |
Exactly that - elections are today so there could be a buying opportunity over the next few days. |
Why the big drop .. maybe sth African politics ? |
The dividend has now appeared in my II account. |
Try after 3pm today and the dividend might there |
No dividend in my II account. |
Dividend was due to be paid May 7th. Has anyone received theirs? |
A £5K holding here gives you the excitement of seeing one share in your portfolio move up (and down) £250 a day seemingly at random. Also gives you a daily reminder the rest of the world is getting cheap energy while we "save the planet" paying an arm and a leg for our energy from "un-reliable" expensive windmills. |
Buy backs up to 100,000 shares a day is intetesting. Could these re visit 630s |
Think the days of maga high coal prices is well behind us although I don't see any reduction in usage being phased out for many years to come (India etc)
Don't see this going anywhere close to the previous £16 level but with a steady revenue stream from physical sales I am more than happy with my "passive income" holding for just the dividends alone |
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