Thinksmart Share Discussion Threads

[sphere25] 02/7/2020 16:42

Yes. The 820k buy and then another 250k have cleared out 22p. RNS should follow to say Lombard are at least under 4% and maybe 3% judging by the buying.

Full ask at 23p and only 50k available whereas before you could get multiples of that so another sign stock is drying up.

AfterPay is on an absolute tear. That must consolidate at some point, but yes should be interesting to see the reaction here once Lombard are cleared.

[spooky] 02/7/2020 10:21

Nice 820,000 share trade, looking very promising.

[brwo349] 02/7/2020 09:10

250,000 bought at 22p

[brwo349] 02/7/2020 08:52

The 2 million shares director buy at 24p on 28th June cannot be ignored

[someuwin] 02/7/2020 08:41

An overlooked gem, this one.

[brwo349] 02/7/2020 08:38

bid moved up to 21p

[sphere25] 02/7/2020 08:02

AfterPay up another 9.5% at A$68

[spooky] 01/7/2020 11:49

Agree, suspect the number at close of business yesterday was less, but if not, there aren't many to go.

[sphere25] 01/7/2020 11:45

Holding RNS out.

As suspected a huge chunk taken out of Lombard's holding with their position moving down from 9.59% to 4.51% so 4.8m shares to go - this was as at a certain point yesterday.

I just wonder if the position is less than that because the volume recently has been enormous so possibly another RNS to follow shortly. Nonetheless, suspect the market will gobble these up as it realises the supply is coming close to an end.

[spooky] 01/7/2020 09:51

Seller obviously working from home and overslept. Less than 2.9 to go IMO.

[bumpa33] 01/7/2020 09:45

Canaccord have stock today, they put all the business together yesterday so prob safe to assume they’re the mm clearing Lombard’s holding. I don’t know how much they’ve got left, but I don’t think we’re talking huge amounts - they’ll make the touch currently in 250k and no discount.

[sphere25] 01/7/2020 09:04

Judging by the first hours trading, it could be alot less than 3 million. Not a single trade in the first hour (after huge volume yesterday) and no stock available at 21p.

Perhaps the first sign that the line of stock is getting close to being exhausted.

[spooky] 30/6/2020 16:36

By my calculations they must have less than 3 left, that's assuming they are the only seller of course.

[sphere25] 30/6/2020 16:27

Considering the amount of buying coming in here, the market is sensing value too. The volume of buying coming in has been picking up quite rapidly as the day has progressed including a 700k earlier, numerous blocks of 100k and 200k and a couple of 230k's as well as a 760k into the close.

4.5% of the shares in issue exchanged as we go into the close. Surely Lombard must be close to getting cleared.

[in_it_2_win_it] 30/6/2020 14:32

Not sure whats going on here. Today is year end and so the After pay share value price ( doubled) gets crystalised in terms of valuation for year end accounts. that plus 2m shares bought by insider means those that know the facts are either wrong or the market knows better and Lombard is surpressing the price. Either way.. the future of buy now pay later in instalments is here to stay as reflected in After pay price.

Just bought.

[29palms] 30/6/2020 12:49

At 12.28pm we have to the Buy side 94.6% & to the Sell side 5.4%
Buys total 48 verses 1 Sell

Patiently waiting for the share price "Melt Up"

As always,
DYOR

[sphere25] 30/6/2020 11:10

Fair comments.

It's clearly how you approach the discounting mechanism. Simon Thompson suggests a value of 35p when AfterPay was trading at A$51.

Personally, I think the market is excessively discounting the valuation, even if you reasonably discount the cash and the current value of the AfterPay stake. Maybe I'm too optimistic with a price around 28-30p. The way the buyers are coming for AfterPay stock suggests more upside. Also have to factor in the takeout of the stake and a director coming in for 2m shares at 24p.

The latter in particular stands out as suggesting there is value here. I doubt you come in for 2% of the company like that and fork out nearly half a million if you didn't think there was material upside.

Clearly I could be wrong and that director and Simon Thompson could all be wrong, but I'm happy following the insider buying. As I said previously, that is sending a strong signal imo.

But yes DYOR, discount to your heart's content :-)

[qs99] 30/6/2020 09:41

on that basis say 31p AP but isn't a chunk of that going to options for employees? 30%? DYOR etc?

in which case NAV is c.22p + other NA and cash so nearer 30p if they haven't eaten into that cash....

DYOR....may be a buyer below 20p on that basis....other funds sit at c.20%+ discount to NA, so why not this?



DYOR

[sphere25] 30/6/2020 09:19

AfterPay shares make a further new high closing up 7% at A$60.99.

Clearpay stake was worth 15.5p based on the Afterpay stock price of A$29.75 at 31 December 2019. That stock has doubled and the trend is very bullish - usually indicates further upside.

Willing to completely discount the other net assets of 4.7p mentioned by ST. If you then add in the net cash of 7.1p, the discount to valuation here still looks absolutely enormous.

It looks like Lombard are presenting a gift here. They had 10.2m shares at the last RNS but since then directors have picked up 2.1m (2m and 100k)and another 2.1m trade was reported on the 24th June. There has been sizeable buying since then so an interesting watch to see their next holding statement.

[sphere25] 29/6/2020 11:44

Another director buy:

"ThinkSmart (AIM: TSL) was notified on 29 June 2020 that Mr. David Adams, Non-Executive Director of the Group, has purchased 100,000 ordinary shares of no par value each in the Company ("Ordinary Shares")"

They're not being shy in adding here. Clearly Simon Thompson has highlighted the value and the big director buying is confirming that.

I'm following the directors in here by buying the weakness.

[sphere25] 29/6/2020 08:28

That explains one of the significant prints. Very encouraging director buy as it is nearly 2% of the company. That isn't noise, sending a clear signal (imo) about the undervaluation here.

Clearly wider markets have been weaker recently so naturally get selling across the board, but the AfterPay stock has held firm and is loitering at highs. Should be interesting to see Lombard's position after those two prints and how the stock moves as they get closer to getting cleared.

[someuwin] 29/6/2020 08:00

NED buys 2 million shares.

[sphere25] 24/6/2020 09:43

A couple of big buys in at 24p:

2m and 2.1m

Stock daring to breakout.

[29palms] 23/6/2020 10:39

Very good news update from Afterpay


Patiently waiting for the share price "Melt Up"

[sphere25] 22/6/2020 15:05

We don't always know how many the seller wants to offload. It could be that they don't want to lob the lot and/or are allocating certain size at certain price points so as to maximise the exit strategy. Alot of the time prices can rise like this as stock is cleared. There have been exceptions like the recent Woodford and Invesco debacles where the price has been clobbered and only able to rally properly post a very significant exchange.

The bulk of this buying is retail, you only have to look at the prints. There could be a bigger buyer in size, but the bulk of this is definitely retail as the buyer in size would have already agreed to take a much bigger size. The stock has been there for the taking at cheaper levels too well before this ST tip, they don't have to sit there adopting a more measured strategy in timing their buys.