TRIG also "reviewing" the fee structure, which is good news.
Perfectly happy with it here - due to the price it's at, and the relative lack of importance of NAV. If it was trading at £1.15 I'd be having second thoughts.
As for Reform - they're like Truss on speed. |
I think Reform's latest policy release on renewals shows (if we needed any other evidence) that they are not serious candidate for government, just a protest party (ala Green's). But that's another matter..
I've been very critical of the portfolio valuations used in many of the renewable ITs (such as SEIT, NESF, GSF etc), which seem more designed to maximise the fees payable to the investment managers, but actually I don't think it's the case here.
At 31 December 2023 (the last full published data) they valued them at £3.141bn. Add the porfolio debt of ~£2.5bn gives an EV of £5.64bn. This porfolio generated an ebitda of £586m giving a valuation of 9.6 x ebitda. That's not totally ridiculous.
Obviously that might change when we see the 2024 results in detail... |
Unfortunately the mantra about big business and “greedy” shareholders pocketing dividends from utilities, eventuslly leads to all of them being “punished̶1;, which in its turn would make them uninvestable. That would kill off their own infrastructure investment, so bang goes our energy security.
Some of these moron politicians can’t see past the end of their nose. |
Well the attraction in TRIG is the yield, but they have to demonstrate that they can
stem NAV losses.
Will probably keep TRIG on the watch list.
I'm not convinced that Reform could win a general election. Labs and Libs would come together to rule maybe. If Reform did win it doesn't strike me that they would have the quality of candidates to run the country well. |
Definitely the 250 stock to watch today. You would expect capitulation with the slew of bad news. But often the Market is hard to second guess, and it might resist at present levels. |
You can't buy TRIG on HL, but can on A J Bell and ii.
I've sold out due to update for a small profit before going Ex Div. |
Some platforms not accepting Trig buys today because of missing data. That isn't going to help. A perfect capitulation storm..XD,Reform edict and terrible NAV release earlier in the week. |
Agree. I’ve managed to trade this a few times for decent profit but not touching it here. The NAVs are clearly under pressure, and the managers haven’t demonstrated much value creation. Anyone can buy a long duration asset that throws off cash flow to service a dividend. |
Reform and their 5 MPs.
Edit - TRIG's top 3 by MW are in Sweden, Germany, & Spain, respectively. Doesn't take much research.
As for NAV drop - NAV isn't a metric to put much store by, but if you do, the discount to it ought to reassure.
1.86p XD today. |
Reform have just called time on TRIG and UKW |
The decline in NAV over the last year looks far and beyond what you could ascribe to gilt yields and electricity prices, both are fairly close to the position a year ago. It's got to be operational issues, which are far more concerning. Also the weakening of the North Atlantic Conveyor has been longed known by Meteorologists ( basic Secondary Modern Geography CSE circa 1980), but seems to have come as a surprise to Trig Management. |
I've sold out for a small loss. It is becoming increasingly clear that these investments that target net zero ideals are, by and large, unsustainable upon the wider population. The reform party has set out its plans for this industry, and it it patently clear that there must be a complete sea change in the way our government has been funding and helping this sector. This madness has to stop! |
TRIG doesn't seem to be ambitiously valued but y/e 2023 ebitda was 9.9% down on 2022, followed by H1 2024 cashflow (unfortunately no ebitda figures disclosed) down 23% on 2023, with Q3 portfolio generation "5% below budget" and Q4 portfolio performance "below forecast". Seems to be on a declining trend?
Probably not surprising that NAV is down from 134.6p to 115.9p in the last 2 years and the Managers are having discussions about the terms of the Investment Management Agreement and Operations Management Agreement.
Year end accounts should be due in a couple of weeks. I think I'll wait... |
The markets have taken the loss per share of 5.7p NAV relatively well in yesterdays trading announcements.
I suppose the hope is that the 1GW development pipe line and investment in Fig (battery storage developer) can stem the loss of NAV.
A new advisors agreement based on the lesser of NAV or share price with falling interest rates should also help.
The repair to connections of offshore wind in UK and the new battery storage coming online in 2025 should boost the dividend coverage assuming no major unexpected outage elsewhere. |
11.8p trim on NAV overall during the year. Earnings per share minus 4.3p in that case, they don't spell that out. Thankfully they have raised dividend, it really would have gone down badly if they hadn't and caused alarm. 7.55p or 7.77p AER ( quarterly accruing) or 9.7% yield. |
Headline not great - another 5+ pence off NAV - but much of the rest seems to read very well. Divi up, divi coverage (net) up next year, buy back increased to £150m (from £50m).
NAV arguably the least important figure, particularly when it's trading down here.
Edit - wind speeds also down, but this interesting:
"The Board is in discussion with the Managers about the terms of the Investment Management Agreement and Operations Management Agreement (including future fees). A further announcement in connection with this is expected to be made alongside the annual results."
Am assuming that very much isn't an increase :) ITs are finally waking up to the importance of fees in the investment case. |
That courtesy ChatGPT so can’t vouch for its accuracy |
Regarding the life expectancy of turbines - is the maintenance not already budgeted for before distributions are made to shareholders? I can’t imagine trig pay unsustainable dividends for 10years then realise they need to refurbish all their wind turbines?! |
We need great annuals to dig us out of this hole, it isn't going to happen. NAV is already down 5.3p, assuming another fall of about 1.9p in Q4 because of the cataclysmic state of the Gilt Market at 31/12/24 ( following the Budget) that would be a 7.2p downgrade against 7.4p dividend or just 0.2p earnings per share, a p/e of 440. |
Whilst it's a legitimate issue for discussion, the deceptively named REF is not a reliable source hxxps://www.desmog.com/renewable-energy-foundation/ |
httpS://www.renewableenergyhub.co.uk/main/wind-turbines/how-long-will-the-wind-turbine-last |
 Nonsense its been known for a long time, so lifetime extension involves replacing the gears, turbine and sails is by and large the same price as fitting a brand new one every 10-15 years- because you have to dismantle the old one piece by piece with a giant crane (or floating cranes + several helicopters and a ship) just to replace everything !
the issues are well documented:
Real world data is hard to find and well hidden, especially from investors, obviously lifespan depends on location and usage and output, but its no wonder globally the price of all windfarm equipment manufacturers and projects is down the toilet.
As of November 2016, the UK had 19 listed onshore wind farms at >20 years old: of these only eleven were actually in operation (only through lifetime extension), Two were decommissioned, and five were scheduled to be rebuilt. [19], [20]. No public information was available for the one remaining wind farm. In total fourteen rebuilding projects had either been approved or completed in the UK since 2010 [21]. |
Turbines have a 20 to 30 year life span |
Register for streaming realtime charts, analysis tools, and prices.
Hot Features
Premium
