Tethys Share Discussion Threads

[hguess16] 11/3/2017 23:12

1399Peter,
Thanks.
Much appreciated for that.
Your note re time it takes is interesting.
I would guess that the Gustavson Report may have to be updated to satisfy the lenders
and potential new lenders.
My gut feeling is that the delay could be longer because Tethys is dealing with quite
a few lenders and also the new investors.
I hope you are right about an RNS being ready to be put out !.

[temporarily insane] 11/3/2017 22:18

Hey 1399Peter maybe you should forward that on to the BOD just to help them out.

[1399peter] 11/3/2017 20:04

hguess

Please don't take the weekends pontifications and venting of spleens too seriously. But......I thought that we had our reserves independently verified already.

I appreciate this will need to be updated

GRAND CAYMAN, CAYMAN ISLANDS--(Marketwired - Feb 27, 2015) - Tethys, (TPL.TO) (TPL.L) the exploration and production Company focussed on Central Asia, is delighted to announce the result of an updated Independent Reserves Report, which has been prepared by Gustavson Associates with an effective date of December 31, 2014. The report meets the expectations of the Canadian Oil and Gas Evaluation Handbook in accordance with the requirements of National Instrument 51-101, Standards of Disclosure for Oil and Gas Activities of the Canadian Securities Administrators.

Highlights
•Production of 0.84 million barrels of oil (MMbbl) and 4.07 billion standard cubic feet of total gas (BCF) in 2014
•Increase in remaining gross reserves(1) in all three categories at December 31st 2014 over December 31st 2013
•Proven reserves (1P) of 16.62 million barrels of oil equivalent (BOE), up 18% from 2013, represents the highest volume in the history of the company in this reserves category
•Reserves Replacement Ratio (RRR) of 163% for the 1P category
•Proven and probable reserves (2P) of 27.08 million BOE, up 7% from 2013
•Reserve increases driven by the successful 2014 gas well development drilling



Edit: Just to add DD normally takes about 6-8weeks if I remember correctly. It's been a bit longer than that now, so I would like to think Tethys is just about ready to put out an RNS

[hguess16] 11/3/2017 19:38

1399Peter,TI,
My perception :
Existing and potential lenders ( Banks) require proof of verifiable existing reserves of oil and gas and actual and credible evidence of actual and forecast revenues prior to any rescheduling of loans and/or new cash.
Once all that data is available, lenders do require corporate guarantees as further
collateral and then they decide the terms of any new deals prior to rescheduling and lending money to Tethys.
My questions are :
- How long does it take to carry out an independent study of existing reserves ?
- How long does it take to agree a new pricing strategy acceptable to all parties ?
- How long does it take to provide any new corporate guarantees ?
- How long does it take to finalise revised and new agreements ?

After all this, how long does it take for Tethys to issue a credible and legal press release ?.

[1399peter] 11/3/2017 10:58

TI,

Yes it does make you wonder WTF is going on. If Prax are indeed buying our oil, why haven't we had the info on that. Surely this is ongoing sales to another business customer or is this also tied in with the loan agreements etc and why!!

Basically we have a total news blackout it would seem.........The mind wanders, closed auction, DD, or just long winded tough negotiations, how hard can it be for a lender to see the value in Tethys, its a no brainer

[casual47] 11/3/2017 10:27

Reminder: Prax-AK is a JV between Prax and Altyn Kyran.

The UK Kumar owns Prax yet the Kaz based Kumar, Medgat, allegedly signed the oil deal on behalf of Prax-AK.

[temporarily insane] 11/3/2017 10:19

1399Peter..........
"we still haven't heard anything official yet though"


Standard Tethys........They were happy to tell us everything they could that was negative to get the share price low enough for Bill to convert his loan.!!!!

[1399peter] 11/3/2017 09:52

Yes I remember that being mentioned now, (The Kumar's) we still haven't heard anything official yet though, have we!!

[hguess16] 11/3/2017 07:53

1399Peter,
Perhaps Casual might be able to tell us who the new customer is !.
I recall he made reference to oil being sold to a new customer a while back !.

[1399peter] 10/3/2017 23:36

hguess

It would be lovely to hear who our new customer is and some more news besides in RNS format very bloody SOON!

[hguess16] 10/3/2017 21:49

Casual,1399Peter,
Following up on the Forbes note, in relation to Tethys, I see that EGG is no longer
a customer of Tethys Oil, while ICA is still a customer for Tethys Gas.
I am assuming that a new customer has taken over from EGG.
In 2015 realised oil and gas prices in Q3 were averaging at $12.24 per bbl ( and cost $8.73 per bbl) and $63.4 per Mcm ( and cost $20.05 per Mcm) respectively and were impacted by the Tenge devaluation in late August in 2015.
I am hoping that the new customer for oil pays Tethys well in excess of $12.24 per bbl.
I also note that the new team has reduced overheads recently.
It is clear that increased output through a maximisation of extraction from existing wells would result in a further reduction in costs per bbl and Mcm which
significantly improves the bottom line.
My point is that proven reserves from the existing shallow wells are available to be extracted !. The additional cash would enable Tethys to drill at optimum levels !.
I think and hope that the new team is working towards achieving these objectives !.

[1399peter] 10/3/2017 19:28

An interesting article Casual. Tethys were selling for a lot less than the worse case scenario suggested in the article, so if they can get market rates they will still be on the up.

[casual47] 10/3/2017 18:50

Interesting article (if sobering for us oil stock holders):

[1399peter] 10/3/2017 18:47

As Casual mentioned a little while back, there could be a lot more going on here given the time it's taking. Bit of DD going on perhaps.

[temporarily insane] 10/3/2017 15:55

Meanwhile, just to confirm, I make this another week of.............Yup you have guessed it.......nothing.

[hguess16] 10/3/2017 14:34

1399Peter, Casual,
If Tethys is able to obtain realistic prices for its proven oil and gas reserves compared to the Olisol " rip off ", this value would be well in excess of the short term loans owed to lenders and would also provide additional cash for drilling new wells.
I cannot see why Tethys would be in a weak position purely because the team is taking longer, in trying to negotiate optimum deals with its new trading customers, its
lenders and the banks.
I think we should focus on what the new team has achieved to date and hope that they
can come up with innovative solutions that will secure the future of Tethys.

[1399peter] 10/3/2017 12:27

hguess

Yes I can imagine the Tethys team are just about sick and tired of the endless meetings, no doubt at varying locations across the region and believe me I do understand.

As I said and as Casual points out.....its all about doing it as quickly as they can as time isn't on our side. I am sure they are more than aware of that too.

I am maintaining my confidence purely because of what I see in the share price and the trades. But that is the only thing we have to go on.

Edit: And that my assumption of com's between Tethys and the market is correct

[casual47] 10/3/2017 11:53

Every week/month that goes by is a week/month where TPL has less cash in the bank.

They could easily lose $1m cash per month.

The less cash they have the more vulnerable they are and the stronger 3rd parties with their own interests are (e.g. lenders, banks).

You don't want to be stuck too long in life-or-death negotiations where every day the cards in your hand become weaker.

[hguess16] 10/3/2017 11:45

1399Peter,
Like you, I too would like something this afternoon. But I think you will appreciate that due to the need for negotiations with third parties ( not controlled by Tethys Mgt),and also due to a variety of third parties, and also discussions with the Kumars on future trading relationships, my perception is that it would be unwise to expect the new Tethys team to issue a press release which is inconclusive and half baked !.
Unfortunately, I too am in a position waiting for positive news with the hope that
the long wait is a positive signal that discussions that are taking place at present
are constructive.
As regards the current share price of 1.75p, I think investors will have to make their own judgement as to whether it is worthwhile waiting for news or decide to give up the ghost, lose faith and sell out !.
As for me, I am staying put for as long as it takes for the new team to come up with news that is credible and positive for the future of Tethys !.

[1399peter] 10/3/2017 10:46

hguess


I am assuming there is a mechanism in place that gives the market up dates on said negotiations, hence the share price being held up along with the confidence to absorb sells at 1.75.

I appreciate these negotiations are vital to the future of Tethys but they also need to be concluded in a timely manner to maintain this confidence.

Edit: Sometime this afternoon would be good for me.

[hguess16] 10/3/2017 10:19

Casual,
As Prax Pte Ltd, owned by Sanjeev Kumar, has already acquired common shares of
43,951,698 and warrants of 96,150,000, I would not be so pessimistic as you are !.
I also heard that Sanjeev Kumar attended the EGM on 27 Jan.
There may be other valid reasons as to why he has not yet come on board !.

While the full year results may be affected by the forced shut-down and other illegal acts by Olisol, I would like to focus on the resolution of issues such as new customers for Tethys excluding Olisol and the negotiations currently taking place on funding Tethys operations.

[casual47] 10/3/2017 09:57

Three months into 2017 and the other Kumar still hasn't taken up his directorship role. Is he still supportive of TPL? What's the hold up? Is he the hold up?

Only three weeks until the full year results are due -- they will be dire. Let's hope there is good news to go with it.

[1399peter] 09/3/2017 18:05

Indeed TI

A slightly over optimistic chart it would seem. Just need some credible news to back it up.

Someone got a good deal on their Neg Trade today 105k at 1.75, surely a sell