Teliti Share Discussion Threads

[blank frank] 09/9/2006 18:09

Hi Jonwig.

Sitting on the fence I see, with a "hold" rating:-

ADVFN User Sentiment on this stock
You rated this stock a BUY on 26/08/2006 at 20:29
BUY 7 70.00%
HOLD 1 10.00%
SELL 2 20.00%
(Totals are of users' ratings registered in the last 30 days)



Let's hope that you don't get it up your bottom!

B.F.

P.S. jonwig - 10 Sep'06 - 07:43 - 22 of 25 (premium)
"B.F.
Sitting on the fence - that smacks of indecision. ... "
I didn't say that it smacked of indecision Jonwig, and that wasn't what I meant - sorry if you got that impression.
"Deciding not to choose is still making a choice."

[jonwig] 09/9/2006 18:01

B.F.

I wasn't aware of the facility to rate stocks.
However, now that I've found it (after some trouble) I've done my rating.

I assume I can change it after results?
Companies with year end 31 Dec are now busy reporting H1 results.
I'd very much hope TEL reports during October.

[blank frank] 09/9/2006 17:50

Apparently 9 people have rated TEL on ADVFN in the last thirty days:-

ADVFN User Sentiment on this stock [TEL]
You rated this stock a BUY on 26/08/2006 at 20:29
BUY 7 77.78%
HOLD 0 0.00%
SELL 2 22.22%
(Totals are of users' ratings registered in the last 30 days)



However, only five people have posted on this thread.

Why are a few people keeping quiet? Are they shy?!

B.F.

[stemis] 09/9/2006 10:26

It does seem rather anomalous that TEL's forecast EPS of 18p equates to a share price of 71.5p, whilst Maintel's forecast EPS of 12.34p equates to a share price of 176.5p.

Parts of the reason undoubtedly is that TEL's EPS forecast is with a nil tax charge (Maintel's is a full tax charge) and TEL has debt, whilst Maintel has cash. However (like it or not) a lot of it is clearly down to the relative comfort that the 'market' (i.e. the investment world) has in each that it will make its forecast.

If TEL can address these then clearly there is substantial upside. Over to you Mr Williams and crew............

[blank frank] 08/9/2006 17:57

Yesterday the interim results of Maintel (MAI) were announced, which as the closest comparable listed company to TEL are well worth studying. I am pleased to report that they are good - which is good for TEL. Here are some key extracts:-

07/09/06 07:01 UKREG Interim Results
Maintel Holdings Plc
Interim results for the six months to 30 June 2006

"Financial highlights
Turnover up 20% at #7.063m (2005: #5.901m), with underlying growth across the
group, supplemented by #266,000 of the London Probation Board VoIP contract
announced in February 2006
Voice and data division gross profit grown by 40% over 2005 H1
Earnings per share before amortisation of goodwill of 5.3p (2005: 5.0p); after
amortisation, earnings per share were 5.1p (2005: 5.0p)
Interim dividend proposed of 2.1p per share (2005: 1.5p)
Cash balances at 30 June 2006 of #3.573m (31 December 2005: #3.625m)

Operational highlights
Enhanced network services portfolio has resulted in significant growth in the
voice and data division
Contracted maintenance revenues running at record levels, following the signing
of a number of larger new contracts, and the acquisition of District Holdings
Limited
Significant VoIP equipment sales into existing customers including the London
Probation Board project
District Holdings Limited acquired in June 2006 for #1.060m cash, including
transaction costs

... Growth was particularly strong in our voice and data business where turnover was up 60% ...

... The growth in the division's revenues - up 12% from the equivalent period last
year, at #5.5m - came predominantly from VoIP equipment sales and installations
as we upgrade many of our existing customers with new technology. ...

... Maintel's business model remains robust, providing a premium service to its
increasing customer base and up-selling new technologies through our account
management team. ...

... the anticipated benefits of being able to offer a more comprehensive telecoms package are being seen, with more customers taking more than one service from Maintel. ...

... District's directors left the group on acquisition and the group's
remaining property leases expire at the end of 2006, so significant cost savings
are expected going forward from these and other synergies.
The District acquisition will primarily provide a fresh base of over 400
established customers into which to sell additional services, whilst increasing
the recurring revenue platform of the Group. ... "



The results seem to have gone down well with the market: MAI rose 5.5p yesterday to 173.5p, and a further 3p today to 176.5p.

[blank frank] 07/9/2006 18:53

Looks like all buys today, with no sales:-

As at 07-Sep-2006 18:22:57
71.500 0.00 0.00

Bid Offer Volume High Low Last Close
67.00 77.00 4,128 75.00 74.23 71.50 on 07-Sep-2006

Last 5 trades
Time/Date Price Volume Trade value Type
15:52:06 07-Sep-2006 74.23 587 435.73 Ordinary Trade
14:46:08 07-Sep-2006 74.23 2,600 1,929.98 Ordinary Trade
11:44:18 07-Sep-2006 75.00 268 201.00 Ordinary Trade
08:06:11 07-Sep-2006 74.23 673 499.57 Ordinary Trade
14:57:48 06-Sep-2006 74.23 1,500 1,113.45 Ordinary Trade



Three of the four buys are for amounts of below £500; could it be that little stock is available after all the recent buying? Certainly, TEL's online dealing size for buying seems to have been pretty small recently, judging from some dummy trades I've tried.

So how come someone was able to buy nearly £2K.'s worth of TEL?

Well, according to ADVFN, TEL has five market makers:-
Brokers
Name Activity Type Mnemonic Code
Winterflood Secs Ld Market Maker Broker/Dealer WINS WNTSGB2LBIC
Shore Capital Stockbrokers Ld Market Maker Broker/Dealer SCAP SHOCGB21
Kbc Peel Hunt Ld Market Maker Broker/Dealer KBC KBCSGB21BIC
Teather & Greenwood Ld Market Maker Broker/Dealer TEAM TGREGB21
Hoodless Brennan Plc Market Maker Broker/Dealer HOOD HOPBGB2L


Hoodless Brennan are also a popular retail stockbroker. Maybe they are more generous with their customers for stocks that they also make a market in.

B.F.

[blank frank] 06/9/2006 20:44

A BRIEF OVERVIEW OF TEL'S LAST TWO YEARS, ESPECIALLY FOR NEWBIE TEL INVESTORS:-

[N.B. All share prices have been adjusted as necessary for TEL's 50 into 1 share price consolidation last month.]

I've tipped this share earlier at higher prices, initially after it floated in September 2004 at 175p. As it turned out I was too early, as the share price performance has been a disappointment (although the fundamental progress of the company has been very encouraging).

The share price / company performance has I believe probably been depressed by 3 main factors, 2 of which were just bad luck:-

1. Overhang from Enterprise North (formerly Mosaique). MQE apparently became a large holder of TEL in TEL's 9/04 IPO, but shortly afterwards MQE ran into serious problems and became a distress seller.
However, ENTH's interim results on 22/12/05 revealed that it intended to complete the disposal of its remaining investments by 31/3/06:

Most recently, ENTH's trading statement on 4/8/06 stated that:
"The Company has now realised substantially all of the investments it previously held and therefore no longer has any trading activities."


2. Ian Leask, TEL co-founder and Head of Sales, died suddenly in 3/05. This apparently had some short-term impact on the company's performance.
However, the CEO's report in December stated that:
" ... Ian's example and contribution will not be lost as the sales and marketing team, built up over the last two years, continues to perform at the highest levels in the future."

3. Higher cost of technical personnel and infrastructure now needed to provide the more sophisticated solutions to the larger corporate accounts. Initial costs were borne by TEL, and now the benefits of the contracts concerned are starting to show through in TEL's improved financial performance.

Now that these issues have been effectively 'weathered', I believe that the TEL share price will perform well.

TEL made three acquisitions during the calendar year 2005, the second one of which resulted in Ed Smyth becoming a director and major shareholder of TEL at a deemed price of 150p/share. As part of the agreement, ES will not dispose of any shares in TEL if the shares are below a price of 350p/share (except with the consent of the Board which may only be given in exceptional circumstances). This compares to a current TEL share price of 71.5p/share.

ES has a formidable track record. Until 1997, he was a director of Amec Building Limited, part of the Amec Group. He left Amec Building Limited to start his own business in the consultancy management sector, Alba Management Consultants Limited, in 1997. In 2000 Alba Management Consultants Limited and Stiell Limited, with investment and other support from 3i, came together to form an enlarged group called Stiell Group whose clients included BT, Royal Sun Alliance, Abbey National and Canary Wharf. In 2002, the merged business of Alba Management Consultants Limited and Stiell Limited, of which ES was the largest shareholder, was successfully sold to Alfred McAlpine plc for circa £85 million.

TEL has preferred partner status for telephony and data transmission services for the clients of ES's new company, the clients of which company include MacDonalds, McAlpines and Compass Group.
Regarding this, TEL's CEO's report last December stated that:
"... I am confident that through this association and alliance the Company will not only benefit from new blue-chip clients becoming customers of TMG, but also the ability, as the board has declared its intention, to widen our support services offering. ... "

TEL's annual report for the year ended 31st. July 2005 also highlighted that the company is already benefitting from the burgeoning VoIP market:-

"Analysis of Principal Revenue Streams
Maintenance 35%
New systems inc VoIP 38%
Additional equipement and services 17%
Call billing 10%"

"The CEO's report
Jeff Williams ...
We are competing at the highest level in the converged voice and data market and our expertise will ensure that new and existing cusomers are confident of TMG's ability to take them along their technology road map. ... "

TEL has 'top performing reseller' and 'best technical support' awards from SpliceCom, as an accredited seller and maintainer of one of the first truly VoIP telephony products manufactured by SpliceCom.

Since floating TEL has announced the winning of several major contracts, and a major contract extension (Travis Perkins):-

05/11/2004 09:21 UKREG Award of contract


19/01/2005 11:21 UKREG Award of contract


14/02/2005 09:00 UKREG Award of contract


07/06/2006 12:47 UKREG Re Contract


15/06/2006 11:00 UKREG Trading Statement


B.F.

[blindfaith2] 06/9/2006 12:21

A nice little mini erection today, all helps the casue. Keep it UP !

[currypasty] 06/9/2006 12:17

another tick up, now

1 MM ASK 75
1 MM BID 68

[currypasty] 06/9/2006 10:16

I like it here thanks, bid and ask ticked up

1 MM ASK 74.0
2 MM BID 67.0

[jonwig] 06/9/2006 08:49

CURRYP: I'd suggest you post on B.F's new thread or you might get into trouble!

[currypasty] 06/9/2006 08:22

anything new ?

[blindfaith2] 05/9/2006 09:09

BF – nice one, that's a lot better, ta.

[tenapen] 05/9/2006 03:07

Yes, i'm in and hope to build on my small holding in TEL in the coming months.
kenny.

[blank frank] 04/9/2006 19:26

Thanks for the clarification Jonwig. I think that most people would have interpreted your remark as directed at myself as the most frequent poster on this thread.

I repeat that the poster league table is just a bit of fun; I would have preferred not to have been top actually, so that my motives for posting it would not have been open to question.

SteMiS - 4 Sep'06 - 13:18 - 702 of 703
" ... one of Frank's many feuds ... "

I don't consider that comment to be accurate and fair. But perhaps it can mark the end of personal comments between us, with a new start on the new TEL thread:

[blank frank] 04/9/2006 18:32

BF2,

Welcome to the new TEL thread, my old China! Your contributions, and those of everyone else, are generally appreciated. It's not necessary to be bullish here, though I do appreciate people being thoughtful and accurate - which on the whole I think you are. I haven't set this thread up with the facility for me to moderate posts - as a rule I don't like censorship - so within reason there is freedom of speech here.

The header is unfortunately (or fortunately, depending upon which way you look at it) the one part of the first post on this thread that I don't have the power to change now, so it looks like we're stuck with it! As you will see though, I have provided a link to the TEL AIM IPO prospectus extract, which I have specifically mentioned includes risk factors. It also happens to be my genuine view that there is not that much wrong with TEL's business progress, and that the share price is painting a misrepresentative picture of that. Time will tell if I am right.

Benjamin Graham:-
'In the short term, the stock market behaves like a voting machine, but in the long term it acts like a weighing machine (i.e. its true value will in the long run be reflected in its stock price).'


The black telephone image was from TMG's own website - the history section! In response to your suggestion I have replaced it with a more modern image from the TMG website - and I have also replaced its matching pink telephone cake image.

And welcome SteMiS, my old sparring partner. It wouldn't have been the same without you here, so I hope that you will stay, and that we can put our more personal differences behind us, while still debating quite vigorously when appropriate. Believe it or not I do feel that contrary views are good, and that too one-sided opinions can be bad. But I also think that vigorous debate can be healthy too: if an idea is strong, then it should be able to withstand rigorous examination.

Thanks for you comments about TEL's net assets. This thread was set up in limited time yesterday evening, subject to tweaking afterwards. I decided last night that I should add the 'intangible' element of TEL's net assets, in the style of the "Investors Chronicle", which I have now done. Remember though that even intangible assets have a value, and that value may be more real that more tangible assets such as machinery - which may be virtually worthless when it becomes redundant. Much of the real value of a company like TEL resides in its business, customers and people - the intangible assets help to reflect this.

From TEL's interim results announcement of 20th. April 2006:-
#'000
Net Assets/(Liabilities) 1,533


Any other comments are welcome - even positive ones. (I promise I won't be embarrassed!)

B.F.

P.S. Hi Kenny (tenapen) - have you taken the plunge into TEL yet?

[tenapen] 04/9/2006 18:30

A bit harsh BF2, like all modern phones there is a pink one for the girls and BF and shown that TEL is up to speed on modern trends. LOL

[blindfaith2] 04/9/2006 15:37

BF - Don't you think the header may be a little OTT bearing in mind TEL is still trading at 65% down on launch price ?

You may also wish to change the telephone type as maybe an old fashioned dial bakelite dial phone is not quite how TEL wish to portray themselves as they are reportedly gaining considerable success converting customers to VoIP.

Apologies that first post is a nag as it probably takes some time to set these things up.

[jonwig] 04/9/2006 14:19

B.F.
I've - deliberately - kept as much as possible out of personal arguments on this thread, but your interpretation of my 'prolific postings' remarks as a deliberate slur on yourself are wholly misplaced.

In fact, as SteMiS is surely aware, there are some companies, and associated threads on ADVFN, where rational debate has long been quite impossible (start with EKT, a pretty decent, ordinary, boring outfit on its own merits) and the occasional balanced post (ie. one with both sides put) is howled down. Quality is ousted by quantity.

So that kind of thing was my target. Perhaps you are too ready to attribute remarks as being directed towards yourself.

[stemis] 04/9/2006 13:18

Yes Jonwig, I was bit alarmed to see I was 3rd on the list (especially as its not exactly been my most lucrative of investments) but then again there has only really been 5 of us keeping the candles burning. Excluding Outsider (who only came here to continue one of Frank's many feuds) and the top 5 account for 88% of posts.

[blank frank] 04/9/2006 13:13

jonwig - 4 Sep'06 - 12:55 - 700 of 700
" ... As far as a league table of prolific posters goes, I can point to many boards where quality and quantity are inversely related... "

I agree totally Jonwig. Shame though that a bit of fun like a poster league table should elicit unpleasantness rather than joy ... although I appreciate that envy can be a very powerful emotion. And if you're going to engage in those sort of nasty little jibes here, I'm glad that I should no longer be a regular poster on a thread with such an atmosphere ... though I will of course return as necessary to reply to any jibes directed at myself.

In terms of quality of posting, other posters have tended to make the mistakes here, rather than myself:-

Blank Frank - 16 Jun'06 - 16:30 - 446 of 700 edit
"jonwig - 15 Jun'06 - 18:02 - 443 of 445
" ... BF, on a turnover basis, MAI has £12.2m and MCap of £18.2m, so 'worth' 67p in the £ of T/O. ... "
Jonwig,
I'm afraid that you've used MIA's market cap as the denominator, whereas it should actually be the numerator. I.e. £18.2M. divided by £12.2M., NOT vice versa!
This gives a 'price sales ratio' for MAI of 1.49, rather than 0.67, i.e. over twice as much!!
Apply a PSR of about 1.5 to TEL's turnover, and the figure is far higher than your's, even if you take off debt afterwards. Though hard to believe that TEL is so undervalued by the market I know ...
B.F.
P.S. To help remember which way round it is, it may help to remember that you wear a cap on top, and the Denominator is Downstairs (i.e. both start with a D ... which coincidentally is what I award you for maths!)."





Blank Frank - 16 Aug'06 - 17:17 - 569 of 700 edit
"Jonwig,
I'm pretty certain that the person you spoke to at Rowan Dartington has got it wrong about the real eps forecast being higher than 18p (0.36p pre-consolidation).
I also can't help noticing that you appear to have completely changed you previous view:-
jonwig - 4 Aug'06 - 11:27 - 532 of 568
"This is the Hardman text for July. Nothing new for followers.
Again, I have to wonder whether the 0.36p/sh is EBITDA or similar, rather than a proper bottom-line number. ... "
jonwig - 4 Aug'06 - 17:51 - 534 of 568
" ... On the subject of eps, I remember a discussion with an analyst (concerning a different company) in which he said that "The City ALWAYS uses EBITDA figures". ... "
I.e. If the eps forecast was based on EBITDA, the real eps forecast would actually be LOWER than 18p ... perhaps quite significantly lower.
Whereas your current view that the eps forecast is post a notional tax charge means that the real eps forecast would actually be HIGHER than 18p!
In reality though, I don't believe that either of those scenarios apply. I'm pretty sure that the eps forecast is based on actual earnings expected: i.e. a real eps of 18p; not higher, and not lower (though of course the actual result may vary if TEL's performance varies from that forecast).
B.F.
P.S. Please note the following correction to a recent SteMiS post:
SteMiS - 15 Aug'06 - 10:47 - 547 of 569
" ... If I was TEL I would be busting a gut to get the prelims out (its now 6 weeks after the year end). ... "
TEL's year end is actually 31st. July, not 30th. June; so we're still barely a fortnight into TEL's new financial year. TEL's full year results last year were announced on 1st. December, though hopefully this year they will be earlier - say the second half of October."



For information that can be more relied upon to be accurate, the new TEL thread is the place to be:


B.F.