Telford Homes Share Discussion Threads

[joe say] 13/7/2017 09:36

Against that though

"having already secured over 80 per cent of the anticipated gross profit for 2018 and over 60 per cent for 2019."

[speedsgh] 13/7/2017 09:33

"We expect less than a quarter of the forecast open market handovers for the year to occur in the first six months and as a result full year profits will be significantly weighted towards the second half."

Significant H2 weighting is not ideal & may act as a brake on the share price for a while until there is clearer evidence of them meeting full year guidsnce? TEF is a high quality business imo but, despite the chronic demand-supply imbalance, it still operates in a highly cyclical market.

[jurgenklopp] 13/7/2017 09:12

"assessing a number of exciting new development opportunities ..."

Sounds promising.

:o)

[aimingupward2] 13/7/2017 09:09

Reassuring AGM statement this morning.

July 2017
Telford Homes Plc
('Telford Homes' or the 'Group')

AGM Statement 2017

Telford Homes Plc (AIM:TEF), the London focused residential property developer, will hold its Annual General Meeting ('AGM') at 12.30pm today at Telford House, Queensgate, Britannia Road, Waltham Cross, Hertfordshire EN8 7TF. At the AGM the Chief Executive of Telford Homes, Jon Di-Stefano, will make the following statement:

"Since we reported our final results on 31 May 2017, Telford Homes has achieved further momentum in the build to rent sector and we are assessing a number of exciting new development opportunities to add to our £1.5 billion development pipeline.

Build to rent, in which the Group has already secured over £230 million of combined contract value representing nearly 500 homes, remains a strategic focus for the Group and we expect to undertake further transactions in the sector. Our desire to be at the forefront of this sector in London was supported in early June 2017 with the signing of a pre-construction development agreement with Greystar to deliver 894 rental homes in Nine Elms. This potentially transformational deal is an example of a growing number of large-scale investors who want to work with a partner that has the skills required to identify land, achieve planning consents and manage and control the entire design and construction process under the brand of a respected London developer.

Our confidence in delivering continued growth remains unchanged, supported by the chronic need for new homes in London. The Group is on track to exceed £40 million of profit before tax for the year to 31 March 2018 and £50 million in the year to 31 March 2019 having already secured over 80 per cent of the anticipated gross profit for 2018 and over 60 per cent for 2019. As was the case in the year to 31 March 2017, whilst all of our developments are being delivered on programme, the timing of their completion is not evenly spread across the current financial year. We expect less than a quarter of the forecast open market handovers for the year to occur in the first six months and as a result full year profits will be significantly weighted towards the second half.

Whilst there has been some political and economic uncertainty in recent weeks the Group is hopeful of greater stability in the months ahead. Regardless of this uncertainty there remains a lack of supply of new homes relative to need in non-prime areas of London. We believe this imbalance, coupled with our increased focus on build to rent, will continue to underpin the longer term growth of Telford Homes."

I

[shaker44] 08/7/2017 15:46

Wouldn't mind living there! Tasty. Great to get designers in to give such a modern upmarket flavour. Good for margins

[speedsgh] 08/7/2017 15:12

Telford Homes’ Manhattan Plaza targets off-plan buyers with show home and marketing suite in Poplar -

[aimingupward2] 07/7/2017 11:32

It's beginning to look like we're back in the uptrend which has been running since autumn last year and is very likely to go a fair way yet, given the trading guidance already put out by the company.

[jurgenklopp] 05/7/2017 15:57

Housebuilders are having a good day after the updates from Persimmon and Gleeson.

Hopefully the positivity should filter down to TEF ...... eventually.

:o)

[james188] 26/6/2017 18:02

Given the quite appalling fail rate in relation to fire protection adequacy for recently inspected tower blocks (even recognising that quite exacting standards are no doubt being applied), I wonder if local authorities, at least in London, will further increase the extent to which they delegate building high rise developments to specialist developers to manage the process, rather than go for a direct build alternative.

This would not obviate the responsibility of the relevant LA to be satisfied that the delivered facilities are appropriate, but it may be more risk and cost efficient than other options. I can see lots of opportunities for best in class operators such as Telford Homes.

[hillofwad] 25/6/2017 07:41

Although Help 2 Buy hasn't been that important to TEF mainly as they have been so successful in selling offplan to investors they are attracting these buyers to the remaining apartments at Bermondsey Works . About 22 are currently reserved which is most welcome

The CEO has stated that t he doesnt see this in the future as anything but asmall propertion of sales Never the less for those developemts which are launched later in the cycle those unsold at 6 months before practical completion will be under the radar ofthesebutersmopping up the residuals

Lets not forget Help 2 Buy is a major plank in Labour's manifesto too

"We will guarantee Help to Buy funding until 2027 to give long-term certainty to both first-time buyers and the housebuilding industry. "

[hillofwad] 24/6/2017 11:20

Telford are Men for All Seasons so don't despair if Corbyn appears on the scene.London and Labour need quality developers like Telford to deliver product
In a post Grenfell world those reputable developers who successfully straddle the private /public sector Housing domain and weave together partnerships will benefit

Any tightening of regulatory powers by the gov't of any colour only serves to raise the barriers to entry for competition

Telford have alraedy made the move to insulate themselves from any fall off in demand in the private sector for individual apartments The Nine Elms deal alone is in excess of the total number of apartmes physically completed in FY 16 and 17 so they have moved up yet another paltform

Berkeley have done Telford a big favour with their generous deal on Kensington for Grenfell residents and removed the image of devlopers as pantomime villains

The scene is set for a very rosy future for TEF with doors opening everywhere

[owenski] 22/6/2017 09:21

Thanks for the link hillofwad

It's a good presentation and good insight into the figures and business from the CFO as well as CEO.

Not an expensive stock by any metric and even with the current 'political' uncertainties, it's not going to trash the prospects here.

I guess when the 400 selling is done we might get an idea whether buyers can take this higher to a more deserving rating.

[monkeywrench] 22/6/2017 09:17

capricious71 - me too. Jim got it right most of the time.

[pillion] 21/6/2017 20:54

Yielding 3.9% with potential for growth, I consider TEF a decent long term [3 years] investment


Politics could be a fly in the ointment; should Corbyn get in power I will sell

[capricious71] 21/6/2017 16:09

If you'd bought this a year ago you'd have done very well.

To be honest, I bought it as it was one of Jim Slater's last share recommendations.

[hillofwad] 21/6/2017 07:07

Tudes Yes indeed The CEO in the recent webinar



confirmed they wont be reducing margins and chasing revenue for the sake of it either
Door knocked with investors eager to partner with TEF into PRS -He can afford to pick and choose expressing his desire to create long term relationships Hopefully these will be Greystar and M&G
Firm indications that the margin on 9 Elms he is hoping to achieve is close to 16%

[tudes100] 21/6/2017 02:57

Annual report definitely worth a read & shows how quickly the Co are moving themselves from a focus on BTL & owner occupiers to a supplier of PRS accommodation. This de-risking of their development cycle & continued demand in the rental market across London suggests to me that the company rating, comparable to most other mainstream housebuilders is unfair, given the risks to outlying forecasts are considerably lower. Staggering to see that PBT has grown 10 fold in 5 years for the Co, credit to the management team....

The Group’s customer mix for the year to 31 March
2017 has moved significantly towards institutional
build to rent investors, with this sector representing
77 per cent of sales generated (2016: 24 per cent)
compared with individual investors from the UK and
overseas at 20 per cent (2016: 69 per cent) and
owner-occupiers at three per cent (2016: seven per
cent). In total, including build to rent transactions,
we exchanged contracts for the sale of 501 open
market properties in the year to 31 March 2017
(2016: 463).

[hillofwad] 20/6/2017 08:26

The full annual report is on their website and well worth a read Highly impressive Their Living Legacy reassuring Londoners in the wake of Grenfell that they are a company firmly committed to building award winning . safe quality homes for both private and public sector

Its not surpising that partners are clamouring to do business with them High staff retention rates make timely payments to teir contarctors and well run committed to improving shareholder value A company that ticks every box Privileged to be a shareholder

[aimingupward2] 15/6/2017 09:26

Thank you carcosa.

[aimingupward2] 15/6/2017 08:52

Is the share price being quoted xd today?

[johnroger] 14/6/2017 20:03

Conclusion of Phil Oakley article on Watkins Jones

However, I think there are grounds for arguing that Watkins Jones shares have got a little ahead of themselves after a stellar 2017 so far. They currently trade on 13.3 times forecast earnings with a market capitalisation of £453m.

Contrast this with Telford Homes which also sells mainly to investors and has a growing BTR business in London which could make up over half of its development pipeline in two to three years' time. Its market capitalisation is £304m. It is forecast to make slightly more pre-tax profit than Watkins Jones this year but its shares can be purchased for just 8.6 times forecast earnings. It also has a superior short-term profits growth outlook to Watkins Jones as well whilst offering a higher dividend yield.

(Disclosure: Phil Oakley owns shares in Telford Homes.)

[kop202] 14/6/2017 11:55

The Bellway Geordies are big mates with Bloor (biggest privately owned housebuilder). They often share the risk on big sites

[gbh2] 14/6/2017 08:48

I'll hold onto what I have but there's far too much uncertainty in the air for me to buy more.

[jurgenklopp] 14/6/2017 08:14

Excellent outlook from Bellway this morning suggests that prospects for the well run companies in the sector remain intact.
Last day before going ex-divi for TEF in case there are any income hunters.