Telford Homes Share Discussion Threads

[david77] 27/5/2017 21:07

Hello Walbrock82 - interesting, thanks. I have a few Telford but far more Inland Homes shares. Those shares also 'fell out of bed' some years ago. I had a lot @ 10p and a few lower still, but most (foolishly) sold now - I say foolishly 'cos the shares I bt haven't been as profitable as Inland has been.

[pillion] 27/5/2017 15:41

Quite right too elmfield;

and Corbyn getting higher poll ratings by the day ((Sad face

[elmfield] 27/5/2017 14:48

One thing it is worth noting just what can happen,
And should we get a real crash in the market.......?

[pillion] 27/5/2017 14:17

Hi walbrock;can't access your





final results for the year ended 31 March 2017 -- Wednesday, 31 May 2017.

[walbrock82] 27/5/2017 11:51

Thanks for sharing hillofwad.

[walbrock82] 27/5/2017 11:50

Maurillac that was during the financial crisis between 2007 to 2009 when the shares fell from £3.26 to 16p. See here

[owenski] 27/5/2017 10:39

95% fall???? did you mean 9.5%??

[hillofwad] 27/5/2017 09:26

The article also fails to acknowledge that TEF have already changed tack and farmed the gold plated PRS sector 4 sold to gold plated buyers 3 of which definitely because of HPI sold to closely match profits achieved on private sales

This sales channel wasn't available to them in the last downturn They are in a much different place to face any potential downturn this time around and attract funding

[maurillac] 27/5/2017 09:06

I don't recall tef "falling by 95%." ???
M

[hillofwad] 27/5/2017 07:58

I think that in TEF,s stomping ground prices will fall slightly and a fall off in demand for private sales Having said that TEF have already out in the heavy lifting to counter that


Very little of their developments st which complete next calendar year are unsold

Just as the market is becoming more tight TEF are becoming more liquid with all the revenue flowing back in through the door enabling them to take advantage of further opportunities


They certainly are Men for All Seasons strengthened by partnerships

[walbrock82] 27/5/2017 07:37

Whether you are short or long-term investors, here are some serious facts to date and forecasts in the future:

A. Since 2004, Telford Homes saw revenue compounded by 16%.

B. Development pipeline is over £1.5bn or four times the size of annual revenue.
What you didn’t know is Telford’s pipeline has an average property price of £510,000 vs. the average London price of £580,000. Should this give the company a cushion, if prices fall?

C. Despite rising property prices, it is very sensitive to movement in price and sentiment (think volume of transaction). Remember that Brexit vote. it caused the shares to fall 30%.

D. Annual home price is starting to fall in London. It registered a drop of 1.5% last year. The first time in eight years. Also, it caused Telford’s shares to collapse by 95%. But, I would admit that uncertainty surrounding the banks played a big part as well.

E. Property prices in London are 15 times greater than the average salary of £30,000. This is the highest on record. Will it carry on higher?

F. Telford’s guidance paint a rosy forecast of profit before tax of exceeding £40m in 2018 and £50m by 2019 (2016 was £32m). On that measure, expect the share price to rise to £6.50 per share on a proportional basis.

If these facts interest you, then there is more in this article:

What do you believe in? Higher or Lower property prices in London.

[hillofwad] 27/5/2017 06:54

One of the most pleasing aspects about Telford Homes is the transparency. Any news is issued in a non-triumphantal ,quiet fashion which belies the busy ,highly focussed work currently taking place on site over several developments. Never been busier


Investors can be reassurred that profits and business will exceed expectations The BODS mindful that the £50m placing and the timing of completions were always going to make Y17 difficult to increase EPS

However a few extra penthouse sales at windfall profits and a number of PRS sales would have enabled them to do that drawing some profit from the initial sale of the land element

The Upton Park deal with M&G although on the face of it enjoyed a good discount on current sale prices TEF were easily able to accomodate that and score heavily because of the cheap entry price on the land. In addition there has been substantial HPI since first secured and would have also recognised that they enjoyed the better half of the bargain on the sale of Carmen Street just before Brexit

Since the last trading update they have now all the remaining 2 beds offered to the "Help 2 Buy sector reserved at Bermondsey . Fantastic achievement. First completions taking place in July which will provide some most welcome revenue for H1 with H2 revenue shooting through the roof with completions at Manhattan Plaza ,remainder of Bermondsey and Stratosphere where a huge lump is arriving Not forgetting all the PRS revenue

Plenty going on and TEF have done everything they can to be risk averse Formidable

[1olddog] 26/5/2017 20:27

Looks like we are getting a nice little boost before the results. Maybe others are expecting good news. Hope it's not a case of "buy on hope, sell on news" or whatever it is. I have too many of these really but can't bring myself to sell when I do think they will get to 450 or so within 12 months.

[gp1948] 25/5/2017 22:02

It's a pleasure Olddog. TEF is the biggest holding in my portfolio (by quite some way). I like to keep track of things with this company. I think the results on 31st May should give us a modest boost in the share price.

[1olddog] 25/5/2017 18:08

Thanks gp. VERY glad to be corrected on this one. All bodes well.

[gp1948] 25/5/2017 17:19

Check the trades on 27th April 2017 olddog - bid 426p at 4:18pm

[jurgenklopp] 25/5/2017 16:35

Just sold all my RDW and doubled my holding in TEF.

Onwards to next Wednesday.

[1olddog] 25/5/2017 16:21

Not sure the 425p was a bid price. I've noticed a big spread at start of trading each day which can be misleading. Think it opened at about 422 offer the last few days, bid much lower. Still agree it would be good to see higher after results.

[pillion] 25/5/2017 00:52

final results for the year ended 31 March 2017 -- Wednesday, 31 May 2017.

[gp1948] 24/5/2017 22:01

We were at 425p a couple of weeks ago olddog! I'm hoping for better than that.

[1olddog] 24/5/2017 20:49

Also in my wish list are: really good results, good div, then gentle uplift towards 450p in next 6 months as the market learns more about TEF. I suppose it's unrealistic to expect much more than 425p before end Sep. but one can dream. I reckon the company is worth it especially when you compare the management to the likes of Bovis.

[1olddog] 23/5/2017 20:44

Think you may be right aiming. Hope so anyway. I was being deliberately conservative.

[aimingupward2] 21/5/2017 20:30

That seems a pretty safe, conservative, bet. The interim was raised by 20% compared to the year before, so even if the final is raised by a slightly lesser proportion we are looking at 9p. 9.25p could be on the cards, given good results and a promising outlook, which would be very welcome.

[1olddog] 21/5/2017 19:32

Any guesses for next Div? I go 8p.

[doubleorquits] 17/5/2017 10:03

Thank you Gengulphus - useful information. Much appreciated.

Having now started to read it, my understanding from the example given is that the tangible link appears to be retained if there is tangible evidence that the proceeds resulting from sale of A are used to purchase B. If the monies are used for something else and then revert to investment in A at some later date with other cash making up any shortfall, perhaps from a loan or from further sales of assets, then the tangible link may be broken. It would appear that the tangible link is best retained if the money is reinvested immediately.