Tekmar Share Discussion Threads

[thomshrike] 16/12/2019 18:28

In fact, given that most of their revenues are generated abroad, the consequent GBP rally is a mild negative.

[imperial3] 16/12/2019 17:31

Pity no election enthusiasm result shown here.

[thomshrike] 16/12/2019 17:18

Very impressive, thanks!

[jonwig] 16/12/2019 16:40

Tekmar support Deepocean on WindFloat with rapid delivery of cable protection:



You can see the Tekmar product on the left in the picture.

Floating offshor turbines seem to be the big new thing, as they need less foundation material. (The mass of concrete being deposited underwater has caused some concern,)

[rambutan2] 10/12/2019 21:05

Schroders have rnsed a few upped stakes today which don't really make sense. I'm wondering whether they've taken over some remits, or recently bought a fund manager?

[saucepan] 10/12/2019 18:09

Interesting. I wonder where they got the stock from?

[jonwig] 10/12/2019 17:58

Yup - added to header. A big move, and a firm I respect.

[thomshrike] 10/12/2019 17:57

Schroders increased their stake significantly from 5.3% to 12.2%.

[saucepan] 09/12/2019 09:05

Interesting observations; thanks.

[thomshrike] 09/12/2019 08:48

A bit more color on Pipeshield and its impact on Tekmar's numbers, after reading on Tekmar's H1 press that it should represent c. 10% of FY2020 sales.

Note that:
- Pipeline is consolidated only for the H2 of FY2020.
- Pipeshield's seasonality is low. Assume 50/50 between H1 and H2.
- Consensus for Tekmar's FY2020 revenues in 51m.
Hence, Pipeshield's revenues in H2 should be c. 5m. Or, because of low seasonality, we can assume 10m on a normal year.

At the time of the announcement of the acquisition, Berenberg added 5m to FY2021 numbers (no typo here: this is FY2021).

The company also stated that Pipeshield should have c. 15% ebitda margins (before any synergies). Whilst Berenberg added 0.5m to FY2021 numbers, implicitly using 10%.

Berenberg has a 9m FY2021 ebitda estimate for FY2021. Using company numbers, you can work out that upgrades to Berenberg estimates could be c. 10%.

[imperial3] 05/12/2019 17:11

Ticking up nicely.

[thomshrike] 05/12/2019 15:55

jonwig, exactly. It's uncommon to see this kind of swing in such a low liquidity stock like Tekmar.
If I had to speculate, given the timing of the trades, maybe Blackrock trimmed their stake based on concerns that Tekmar would miss their H1 numbers again, like last year. That certainly did not happen.
The stock is now at its all-time high. Well done James and the rest of the team.

[jonwig] 05/12/2019 14:38

OK, good news, but ...

Hang on - BlackRock went below 5% on 16/10, having been 10% before that. They are not reliable long-term holders (as seen elsewhere).

EDIT: I see the quote popped to 170 - 180 as I posted.

[saucepan] 05/12/2019 13:48

Nice; as suspected. A breakout to blue sky developing, to boot, by the looks of it.

[thomshrike] 05/12/2019 13:44

Institutional interest exemplified today with Blackrock notifying the increase of their stake above 5%. Management is currently doing their roadshow post-earnings and the stock continues to move up, which is always a positive indication.

[jonwig] 04/12/2019 17:56

saucepan - maybe, yes. There were a couple of very large trades today (250,000 and 280,000) which were automatically stamped as 'sells' but that seems improbable.

As 'thomshrike' says, there is potential institutional interest.

[saucepan] 04/12/2019 16:04

Very pleasing share price follow-through today. It must be a challenge for institutions to accumulate such an illiquid stock, but I suspect they must be keen to, considering the story unfolding. Thus, I wonder if institutional interest could explain what is behind the rise today and the possible price action over the coming days?

A blue sky breakout, which looks impending now, could also attract technical buyers. The prospect of such a breakout certainly was one of the considerations that got me interested here.

[thomshrike] 03/12/2019 10:46

Hi jonwig, my point is that current earnings do not yet incorporate the earnings from the most recent acquisition, which as we know was relatively sizable.

[jonwig] 03/12/2019 09:52

thom - were there any acquisitions (or changes in share capital) during the period? (Only 336,000 shares by the looks of it.)

I'm not keen on seeing 'adjusted EBITDA' in reports, but since they use it as a KPI rather than a presentational tool, I'll let it pass.

I'm willing to accept what they say about cashflow and accrued income, given 'normal project billing cycles'.

[thomshrike] 03/12/2019 08:54

Tekmar’s numbers will always be lumpy. This report is nonetheless solid and underlying growth trends are intact.
Don’t forget that multiples would look lower on a pro-forma basis adjusted for acquisitions.
CF generation is still not as strong as it could be. I believe this is also a reflection of extended payment terms to clients (as an offset for no discount on prices).
The company should lose the habit of presenting their H1 results in the week when its main broker (Berenberg) holds its bigger annual conference (meaning less attention from potential investors). On the other hand, clearly brokers such as Numis and Finncap now pay more attention to the stock.

[saucepan] 03/12/2019 08:32

Quite a lot of nuances in the results to unpick - but perhaps the bottom line is steady as she goes, with an optimistic outlook?

I must admit I always dislike it when companies omit eps from their "headline" figures at the top of RNS announcements. TGP is guilty of that!

Slater PEG of 0.38 suggests value.

I think TGP will do well going forward in view of its strong niche in an exciting growing sector. Hopefully the share price will be news driven in the weeks and months ahead as big contracts land and are announced.

The chart base looks very constructive.

TGP seems very off the private investor radar, so no "sell on news" brigade to suffer today (at least so far!).

[imperial3] 03/12/2019 08:12

An encouraging and optimistic report.

[jonwig] 03/12/2019 07:25

HY results:



At HY, they had Revenue £17.1m, PBT £0.8m and eps (adj) 2.2p.
They expect to beat expectations on revenue and meet on profits (H2-weighted).
These are currently:

Revenue £40.9m, PBT £5.5m, eps 9.6p.

I see they've reversed an operating cash outflow and have gone to some lengths in explaining the size of the receivables balance, concerns which I raised at the AGM.

A forward PER for the year of 16x isn't exactly cheap. Is the market ready to give it a premium rating? My personal favourite would be a bid at 200p.

[imperial3] 27/11/2019 12:11

Recently the highest volume of trades were classed as undesignated,that is we do not know whether they are buys or sells.

[saucepan] 27/11/2019 09:46

The referenced RNS 5567J was issued on 20 August 2019.

However, hopefully there will be a further catalyst when interims are published on Monday.

There seems to have been quite a bit of buying this week. I am surprised there has not been a tick up. Perhaps one due soon?