Down approx 40% from year high. |
Maybe it’s the ruling from the EU about META and it’s use of personal data for marketing. |
Slightly better tone today. Mm's cashing in on dividend reinvestment orders perhaps?
Or maybe the reason will become clear next week. |
 Yep, encouraging to see Kestrel buying more. Let's hope they carry on up until they hit 29.99%....
Zeus's most recent quarterly Software and Services review had some interesting mentions re TIG:
"Deep dive – privacy trends and third-party cookies Due to consumer, regulatory and technology trends, leading brands are increasingly prioritising consumer privacy in their corporate engagements and avoiding third-party data and cookies. These trends represent a rising challenge to advertisers and brands that are trying to their target products, services and digital advertising strategy to better engage consumers. As a result, we expect brands and advertisers to spend more on digital advertising and marketing software products that do not depend on third-party data.
Privacy-first advertising products include contextual advertising, native advertising, influencer and content marketing, cohort-based advertising, consent-based advertising, email marketing, and advertising with niche publishers. Software solutions that may see greater investments include customer data and engagement solutions that collect and leverage first-party data such as customer data platforms (CDP) and data integration and analytics solutions to enrich first-party data.
For example, the global contextual advertising market is expected to grow 13.3% CAGR 2023-2033 from $195bn in 2023 to $468bn by 2030, according to Grand View Research, and the CDP market is expected to grow 39.9% CAGR 2024-2028 from $7.4bn in 2024 to $28.2bn in 2028, according to MarketsAndMarkets. Well positioned digital advertising solutions companies include Silver Bullet, Team Internet, Pulsar Group, Dianomi and Nexxen. Well-positioned software solutions companies include SysGroup, DotDigital, Celebrus, Ebiquity and Eagle Eye."
"Despite the rapid growth and large potential of privacy-focused advertising and software solutions, the market is immature and highly fragmented into mostly point solution providers. As brands, agencies and enterprises invest more in these solutions, we believe vendors with broader solutions and scale will become better positioned. Therefore, we see the opportunity for market consolidation and believe Team Internet, SysGroup and Silver Bullet are well positioned."
"Impact on digital advertising – Growth markets and products
Without third-party cookies, advertisers will find it harder to gather data to personalise ads and measure the return on their ad spend (ROAS). To maintain the effectiveness of digital advertising, we believe advertisers will spend more on the digital advertising and marketing that does not depend on third party data. Such advertising products and respective companies providing these include:
Targeted content creation These companies attract niche audiences and have deep firstparty knowledge of their buying intentions. Some publishers may negotiate direct deals with advertisers in addition to using automated ad exchanges (me - here TIG are included as an exemplar)." |
Yes, Boadicea, good to see Kestrel continuing to buy especially with the Max Royde connection who will be well aware of TIG's current trading progress. In addition daily buybacks continue which all confirms to me that the business is trading successfully and ontrack "to meet market expectations for the full year". |
Kestrel continue to add. |
The fall looks like a market overreaction. I can't see this not making a profit, especially considering the way the competition is growingThere should be a price correction as they have actually made greater profit in the 6 months to previous. |
The fall since the interims is hard to justify imo, with TIG now trading on a current year P/E of only around 6.4.
Hopefully the newly announce buybacks will help to correct this to some extent.
Online marketing rates re visitor sessions did decline in H1, but TIG have repeatedly shown that they have a top-notch understanding of how their sector operates and how to maximise returns.
Even despite this the H1 EPS was up 14% to 11.07c. Growth in Q2 was stronger than in Q1. Most importantly:
"the Directors are confident that the Group will meet market expectations for the full year", which are for 27.4c consensus Zeus and Edison EPS.
This equates to 21.1p EPS at $1.30 - a P/E of 6.4. |
This really is out of favour with the market. Even if they are down 10% on expectations at fully year PE is still less than 6! I have bought back half the amount I sold at 185p, we shall see if I made the right call, so far not looking good. |
Someone help me with market expectations comment in the announcement:
H1 revenues were $410m. Had Shinez been acquired on 1 Jan revenues would have been c.$30m higher so $440m.
Using that as a baseline for H2 gives $850m for the year if H1=H2. There's no material seasonality in TIG.
Market expectations are $970m per Sharepad. Expectations at the interims were $931m - $984m.
Therefore for them to hit the revenue part of expectations you need another c.$80m revenue ($931m - $850m) to get to the lower end of that range.
Are any of my figures wrong?
Thanks in advance |
Thats a good move by them |
Well if that doesn’t stop the fall we’re really in trouble! Also, the line, “trading at least in line with expectations” is always welcome. |
TIG..is pleased to announce the launch of a share buyback programme .. to repurchase up to 13,048,000 Ordinary Shares (the "Buyback Programme"), effective from today. |
Selling the day before XD that's unusual, expect share price should be even lower tomorrow. I'll hold back my buy till then |
cheers for the input Adam - i can see the rational for the trading rules. maybe you are right about Kestrel and this business being sold...in that sense, I cannot see the point in not being invested if you have high conviction in a sale happening at some point....
i personally feel like a sale of the domain name business is the more likely end result, but not really sure. agree that because of % kestrel holds...you are right, they will need to monetize that through a sale. encouragingly they are buying right now...provides some level of comfort. |
As a former holder watching on the sidelines for coming back in later, the thing which I'm waiting for is the Q3 and FY results given that those would be the main tool I believe in putting a floor under the price. To me the interims called into question whether they can hit their targets.
I also have a self imposed rule of never buying below the 100 DMA as the majority of losing positions which I've had over the last 10-15 years have come in situations where I've averaged down buying below the 100 DMA and the market has known more than me. That rules me out for a handful of months...which is fine given the above. Once bitten twice shy etc etc
Longer-term, Kestrel will eventually find a buyer for TIG given they have no other way of monetising their stake given how big it is. Its just a question of when, and some of that will come down to their own internal dynamics / liquidity preferences etc. In most companies, an acquisition is a possible upside but one which is hard to bank on, but here that upside is an inevitably given Kestrel even though timing of it is not |
diesel...completely agree.
its always been the case with this one that Royde and insiders hold a lot of stock and have been buying all the way up. happy to follow their lead to some degree...as you well know, its rare to see on AIM. we are now back to +15% FCF yield territory now - over 20% once things rebound in their markets.
one thing i would say is that surely acquisition off the table now? i think if someone were to buy TIG, it would have happened by now... |
Surely decent Nvidia results today might assist |
Grant…well the insts. aren’t selling and Kestrel buying would seem to indicate that those with more information than the average punter are not panicking.. |
brutal brutal brutal....quickly making our way back into the 120s and perhaps lower?!
i just can't see any catalyst to stop the fall unfortunately...if H1 trading continues (and in particular Shinez...we could be in for a rough ride.
i'm willing to stay committed and adding...never thought one would get the chance to buy again at these levels! |
Well more director buying didn’t stop the rot, looks like insider knowledge is no better at finding the bottom. |
Boadicea
We're all amateurs in this game have been for over 50 years . The professionals (those who think know what they are doing) have usually gone bust by that time. |
Diesel - Yes - and the strategy to deal with it needs some thought.
The nearly 50% rise we enjoyed at one point between Spring and mid-Summer implies that we have (in marginal terms) a significant number of new investors who will now feel they made a mistake. Very likely they will want to bail on any recovery which will make for a a strong headwind against any rise and also relatively easy progress for anyone wishing to acquire an initial stake.
In these circumstances, which the board will not have foreseen, a return to share buy-backs in preference to dividends would make sense. It might also encourage the return of some of those who may have sold into the rise. Probably sensible also to avoid any temptation to splash cash on new acquistions until the dust settles.
All imhao, of course. ('a' is for amateur!) |
I remember the ex CEO saying the biggest risk he saw was a cheap takeover. Maybe the focus on shareholder value, buybacks and divvies, is more to do with trying to ensure the stock is not so cheap as to attract acquisitive interest. If so the present share price will be causing some concern. |
Register for Free to get streaming real-time quotes, interactive charts, live options flow, and more.
Hot Features
Premium
