Someone help me with market expectations comment in the announcement:
H1 revenues were $410m. Had Shinez been acquired on 1 Jan revenues would have been c.$30m higher so $440m.
Using that as a baseline for H2 gives $850m for the year if H1=H2. There's no material seasonality in TIG.
Market expectations are $970m per Sharepad. Expectations at the interims were $931m - $984m.
Therefore for them to hit the revenue part of expectations you need another c.$80m revenue ($931m - $850m) to get to the lower end of that range.
Are any of my figures wrong?
Thanks in advance |
Thats a good move by them |
Well if that doesn’t stop the fall we’re really in trouble! Also, the line, “trading at least in line with expectations” is always welcome. |
TIG..is pleased to announce the launch of a share buyback programme .. to repurchase up to 13,048,000 Ordinary Shares (the "Buyback Programme"), effective from today. |
Selling the day before XD that's unusual, expect share price should be even lower tomorrow. I'll hold back my buy till then |
cheers for the input Adam - i can see the rational for the trading rules. maybe you are right about Kestrel and this business being sold...in that sense, I cannot see the point in not being invested if you have high conviction in a sale happening at some point....
i personally feel like a sale of the domain name business is the more likely end result, but not really sure. agree that because of % kestrel holds...you are right, they will need to monetize that through a sale. encouragingly they are buying right now...provides some level of comfort. |
 As a former holder watching on the sidelines for coming back in later, the thing which I'm waiting for is the Q3 and FY results given that those would be the main tool I believe in putting a floor under the price. To me the interims called into question whether they can hit their targets.
I also have a self imposed rule of never buying below the 100 DMA as the majority of losing positions which I've had over the last 10-15 years have come in situations where I've averaged down buying below the 100 DMA and the market has known more than me. That rules me out for a handful of months...which is fine given the above. Once bitten twice shy etc etc
Longer-term, Kestrel will eventually find a buyer for TIG given they have no other way of monetising their stake given how big it is. Its just a question of when, and some of that will come down to their own internal dynamics / liquidity preferences etc. In most companies, an acquisition is a possible upside but one which is hard to bank on, but here that upside is an inevitably given Kestrel even though timing of it is not |
diesel...completely agree.
its always been the case with this one that Royde and insiders hold a lot of stock and have been buying all the way up. happy to follow their lead to some degree...as you well know, its rare to see on AIM. we are now back to +15% FCF yield territory now - over 20% once things rebound in their markets.
one thing i would say is that surely acquisition off the table now? i think if someone were to buy TIG, it would have happened by now... |
Surely decent Nvidia results today might assist |
Grant…well the insts. aren’t selling and Kestrel buying would seem to indicate that those with more information than the average punter are not panicking.. |
brutal brutal brutal....quickly making our way back into the 120s and perhaps lower?!
i just can't see any catalyst to stop the fall unfortunately...if H1 trading continues (and in particular Shinez...we could be in for a rough ride.
i'm willing to stay committed and adding...never thought one would get the chance to buy again at these levels! |
Well more director buying didn’t stop the rot, looks like insider knowledge is no better at finding the bottom. |
Boadicea
We're all amateurs in this game have been for over 50 years . The professionals (those who think know what they are doing) have usually gone bust by that time. |
Diesel - Yes - and the strategy to deal with it needs some thought.
The nearly 50% rise we enjoyed at one point between Spring and mid-Summer implies that we have (in marginal terms) a significant number of new investors who will now feel they made a mistake. Very likely they will want to bail on any recovery which will make for a a strong headwind against any rise and also relatively easy progress for anyone wishing to acquire an initial stake.
In these circumstances, which the board will not have foreseen, a return to share buy-backs in preference to dividends would make sense. It might also encourage the return of some of those who may have sold into the rise. Probably sensible also to avoid any temptation to splash cash on new acquistions until the dust settles.
All imhao, of course. ('a' is for amateur!) |
I remember the ex CEO saying the biggest risk he saw was a cheap takeover. Maybe the focus on shareholder value, buybacks and divvies, is more to do with trying to ensure the stock is not so cheap as to attract acquisitive interest. If so the present share price will be causing some concern. |
Big plus to see Max Royde buying even more. The complete pause in buying recently must have meant he felt these were more fully priced?
I am continuing to add in spite of what I felt was a bad results day i.e. I still don't feel like I have had a decent explanation as to why Shinez, in particular, saw such a weak H1...and how we are going to realise expectations for the year.
On the other hand, there are few other businesses in the UK I have followed closely for so long...and I think it is overlooked given the blackbox nature of the online marketing piece. Having got more comfortable with that piece, while believing the domain name business is extremely valuable, alongside what is very strong cash generation, I feel sub 150p is probably a very good place to take a view on this name.
IMO - mgmt. needs to re-do an investor day, setting out the message in even clearer terms vs. the capital markets day 23. they also need to do a dedicated session on Shinez.
I think mgmt are very good, but are guys who live in the world of TIG's tech niche. That is fundamentally a very good thing, as you are invested alongside people who are passionate and very well incentivized in terms of insider ownership levels. at the same time, we want to be able to have the broader market really get what TIG does...
just my two cents. |
Bring back share buyback. |
Not sure we’ll go much lower, 140 may be the support level, so much for their talk of shareholder value, a 1p divvy hardly compensates for a 60p fall. They should concentrate on growing the business and intergrating all the acquisitions to provide synergies and cost savings. |
Horrible share price crash here...surprised we are about to cross into the 130s. |
How does he like it cooked? I like mine rare! |
Let's hope it's a gravy train! |
Please don't forget, the CEO has an enormous stake in the business. |
Good to read the previous posts, all adds to the understanding or confusion, but then you’d have to go some to beat the TIG management when it comes to enlightenment!
I’m holding for now, major shareholders haven’t moved, brokers are positive, they’ve got one more chance of showing that their acquisitions a make sense and that they are creating a coherent sum of the parts. |
cheers Adam! Funny how investing can work...I personally think 150 and below is on balance an excellent time to be increasing exposure here as the valuation is back to a much lower point...but also think the issues of Shinez seasonality + explaining in the most simple way the nuts and bolts of TONIC etc need to be managed better.
Convinced more than anything else that there is a sum-of-the-parts argument given the inherent value in the domain name business - that is a truly excellent business. |
no problem ggrantsu. As above, their comms doesnt bother me personally, but evidently it continues to bother many others that it will hamper the price. I thought they were improving in that respect, but the IMC presentation materials were very weak. I wouldnt say that that was the main reason for bailing through, but one of the few above and probably a couple others not listed. Not ruling out getting back in in future, but price needs to be lower for that such that risk/reward is better balanced and would also need to see where H2 is coming out first given the increased risk of missing targets in my view |
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