Taylor Wimpey Share Discussion Threads

[rikaughty] 10/1/2017 15:10

Hahaha if only it was that simple. Looking like we might only need a 3% rise tomorrow to break £1.80.

[the_equaliser] 10/1/2017 14:33

Look at the posts and rise of sp
;o)

[rikaughty] 10/1/2017 14:15

£1.80 tomorrow me thinks...

[cc2014] 10/1/2017 13:46

They are going for it today. Buying it strongly before results tomorrow. Hurrah

[3rd eye] 10/1/2017 13:21

TW. Taylor Wimpey 6 month high and breakout......

[the_equaliser] 10/1/2017 13:10

Possibly large trade EOD - based on the rise i am guessing
Happened with other builder stocks

[raffles the gentleman thug] 10/1/2017 12:19

hee hee - m4rtinu ... exactly was more referring to the performance of recent days.

Not quite sure what tomorrow brings but I am relatively relaxed on the basis we have a Government and BoE bending over backward to do much to assist this sector, and the yield support remains unparalleled.

[m4rtinu] 10/1/2017 11:37

Raff - I was going to split hairs over the "meteoric" comment but 10%+ rise since start of the year is pretty good in anyone's books :)

And, not wishing to tempt fate with the update tomorrow, but momentum seems upwards. MU

[the_equaliser] 10/1/2017 11:29

H1 2016 UK operational performance:

- Completed a total of 6,019 homes, excluding joint ventures, up 3% (H1 2015: 5,842)

- 5.8% increase in total average selling price to £238k (H1 2015: £225k), excluding joint ventures

- 12.1% increase in profit before tax and exceptional items to £266.6 million (H1 2015: £237.9 million)

So are we looking at 20-22% rise for the year
Just guesstimating

[raffles the gentleman thug] 10/1/2017 11:21

Yep and remarkably despite the meteoric rise in the share price the dividend yield remains 8.0% at 172.1 !!

[tlobs2] 10/1/2017 11:15

Going along quite nicely again today. Long may it continue.

[the_equaliser] 10/1/2017 11:08

Missed this from last RNS

Remain fully committed to the dividend policy announced on 17 May 2016: Enhanced ordinary dividend from 2017 of approximately 5% of group net assets and at least £150 million per annum through the cycle; Special dividend of £300 million (c.9.20 pence per share) to be paid in July 2017 (July 2016: £300.2 million and 9.2p per share)

[the_equaliser] 10/1/2017 10:58

From last RNS

"Whilst it is still too early to assess what the longer term impact from the Referendum result on the housing market may be, we are encouraged by the first month's trading and by continued competitive lending from the mortgage providers as well as the positive commentary from Government and policymakers.

"With a strong order book which has grown to over £2.2 billion as at 24 July, we are c.90% forward sold for 2016. We remain fully committed to the Dividend Policy we announced earlier this year which will deliver increased returns to shareholders."


Not saying much different from Persimmion but i expect the same ss that they pre emptied on the cautious side of brexit

[the_equaliser] 10/1/2017 10:07

Peel Hunt 09/01 Retains Buy 210.00p
Peel Hunt 09/01Upgrades
Deutsche Bank 09/01Reiterates Buy
Deutsche Bank 04/01 Reiterates Buy 239.00p

[rikaughty] 08/1/2017 22:50

I think the BVS post was good and relevant. Agreed their share price affected by a lack in confidence in the management and operations. TW should come out well on Wed. Good news from Barratt Thurs as well and TW share price should see a decent high post Brexit slump. Good luck to all. Thanks Raffles also for good information and opinion as always.

[gambos49] 08/1/2017 18:57

Just showing why Bovis profits were well down .Been with TW since 1985 as Bryants before take overs.

[ianood] 08/1/2017 18:32

Sorry, thought this was TW not BVS!

[raffles the gentleman thug] 08/1/2017 14:37

january 7 2017, 12:01am, the times
The roof is not about to fall in

martin waller

By the end of the week we will have a good idea of the state of the housebuilding market. The indications are that it is pretty robust.

On Wednesday Taylor Wimpey will give its assessment of its performance last year and the prospects for this, to be followed the next day by Barratt Developments. They are, by turnover, Britain’s biggest players in the sector. This week the third on the list, Persimmon, gave its own trading update.

Last month the smaller Bovis shocked the market with what some took as a profit warning, saying that the sale of about 180 homes, expected to be completed in December, was set to slip into 2017. Bovis shares tanked; the update coincided with some apparently weak mortgage lending figures from the British Bankers’ Association and some began to wonder if the long-awaited end of the housing boom was finally here.

The market has been seeking the end of that boom for several years, often using such fears as an excuse to take the huge profits available on the shares, and it remains just over the horizon. Persimmon’s update was about as good as it gets, completions and average selling prices both up by 4 per cent and group revenues by 8 per cent.

The Brexit vote prompted selling of the housebuilders, some of which collapsed to ridiculous levels apparently on the belief that the uncertainty two or three years down the line would somehow persuade first-time buyers to put off the purchase of their home, and quite possibly marriage and a family. This column argued at the time that this was nonsense.


This week the builders were back in favour, on the back of that Persimmon update and a note from brokers at Deutsche Bank saying that there was the potential for a 30 per cent rise in the shares. That would put them ahead of peak levels before the referendum.

Their respective share price performances are instructive. Bovis is off by a fifth from its peak after that warning. Even if next week’s updates are good enough to confirm the strength of the market, this suggests those delays in legal completions were, indeed, specific to the company. Berkeley Group and Taylor Wimpey are also off by 15 per cent or so, both having the support of a strong programme of returns to investors. Barratt is also well down. Among the better performers is Redrow, which is at the lower end of the market, price-wise.

What could go wrong? In boom times, the industry has suffered from skills shortages and any inability to import eastern European builders would be a constraint. House price inflation could slacken, but most of the builders are seeing margins above 20 per cent and return on capital even higher so could take a degree of contraction. They could run out of land, but are sitting on huge land banks. The wider economic concerns are there, but we are in a very different place than in 2008 and 2009, when several builders had to launch rescue rights issues. They could ride out any slowdown and still keep up those healthy returns to investors.

Instead, output by the private housebuilders is still running below where it was before the financial crisis, producing more and more pent-up demand. Government policy is benign enough. Someone is going to have to build those “garden villages” being planned.

From an investment point of view, the yields available in the sector are still some of the best in the market and look sustainable, given all the above. Berkeley’s decision to carry out some of its return in the form of buybacks suggests this may not be the ideal stock for private investors.

Deutsche identifies Taylor Wimpey and Barratt as two to hold. Barratt has a bit more exposure to the southeast. Both yield in the 7 per cent to 8 per cent area, Taylor Wimpey a bit higher. Unless your view of housing in 2017 is apocalyptic, both yields look good enough.

[rikaughty] 08/1/2017 14:17

I expect we'll see 180+ this week. Good luck to all.

[steeplejack] 06/1/2017 14:52

Investors Chronicle ,Simon Thompson 6-12 Jan 2017"To put the current valuations in perspective ,when I last advised this trade in December 2015,the FTSE 350 home builders were trading on an average forward PE ratio of 11.6,offered a prospective yield of 4.3%(including special payouts),and were rated on 2.26 times book value.This means that their forward PE ratios are a third lower than 13 months ago,prospective yields are almost 45% higher and price-to-book value ratios have declined by a quarter.In my book,that's value and supportive of my favourite first quarter rally taking place once again.I feel that the risk premium embedded in the valuations of the housebuilders are too high and if news flow remains positive then expect a modest unwinding of this premium.So with the housebuilders set to report bumper results ,sound order books,strong cash generation and hefty dividend hikes,then the odds are skewed towards a continuation of the sector rally from post-EU-referendum lows.I would therefore recommend buying a handful of shares in the FTSE 350 to exploit the tendency of the sector to rally in the first quarter.The companies are:Barratt Developments,Bellway,Bovis Homes,Berkeley,Crest Nicholson,Countryside Properties,Galliford Try,Redrow,Persimmon and Taylor Wimpey...."E

[raffles the gentleman thug] 06/1/2017 10:10

IG Group Analysis :

Taylor Wimpey (trading update 11 January)

Housebuilders have enjoyed a good start to the year, lifted by a very promising update from Persimmon, one of the sector’s star performers. Yet the entire sector continues to have its attractions for investors, if only because key names trade on such undemanding multiples. Taylor Wimpey is currently valued at just 9.1 times forward earnings, below the 5-year average of 10.4. In addition, dividends are expected to remain robust, with 13.8p per share forecast for 2017. Net cash is also expected to increase, to £360 million from a previous £223.3 million.

Taylor Wimpey shares dropped to a low of 110p post Brexit, but since then have recovered to hit the 168p level, close to the August high at 170p. If it breaks higher from here then the Brexit gap down will have been closed and will open the way to 190p. Support is possible at 148p and then 135p.

[raffles the gentleman thug] 05/1/2017 15:34

garycook ... meant to say think BKG should be ripping it more than TW, thats all. Hope your year starting well - i'm moving into IG Group ...

[garycook] 05/1/2017 14:14

RTGT,Happy New Year,Totally agree TW need to catch up with BKG,in all aspects.But TW is still very good value at these levels.