Taylor Wimpey Share Discussion Threads

[smurfy2001] 09/2/2012 09:14

Slytherin, you forgot to note the NAV, plenty more upside to come. I expect NAV of 60p+ to be reported in the finals. Other house builders are trading closer to NAV.

[imastu pidgitaswell] 09/2/2012 09:07

I suppose there are a few years of no UK tax bing payable, given the level of deferred tax assets from previous years' losses - which should be factored in. So PE ratio averaged into perpetuity maybe more like 7 or 8?

[slytherin] 09/2/2012 09:04

Market cap now £1.4bn, equates to earnings of £200m pre-tax, £140m post-tax on a P/E of 10.

That is quite generous, although there is additional value in being an investment with low debt, having a strong balance sheet and I suspect there will be some real money-making opportunities in the medium term (i.e. land carried at low value and likely significant ramping up of volumes).

[imastu pidgitaswell] 09/2/2012 09:02

jj - Somehow (putting in the reporting dates?) the daily chart has got lost from the header? The TW. one included within the batch of 6 is difficult to follow and a proper daily one is much clearer.

If you wouldn't mind? - tvm

[127tolmers] 08/2/2012 17:44

Dates to watch. Last year they were in a header.

Barratt int 22 Feb
Galliford Try half 22 Feb
Redrow half 23 Feb
Bovis prelims 27 Feb
Persimmon final 28 Feb

TW full year 29 Feb

Bellway int 27 Mar

Watch out for TW NAV in the finals and see if they have got any more deferred tax to add back. Given a strong propsect for a dividend I think we might see TW at 48p by early March rising to peaks of 52p in 2013 and 56p in 2014. Any more is overoptimistic. Traditionally the share falls back in Q2 & Q3.

[michael9000] 08/2/2012 11:17

So what price in 12 / 24 months time do you think ?.

[startrekker] 07/2/2012 16:58

Proving resilient..... sod the dividend for now!

[smurfy2001] 07/2/2012 13:57

yup, for sure

[naed] 07/2/2012 13:45

yes true, but wouldn't a divi help the share price forward?

[spennysimmo] 07/2/2012 12:49

I'm not interested in a dividend. I would rather they keep the money in the business for debt reduction or further investment. Plenty of time for dividends when the share price is much higher than it is today.

[naed] 07/2/2012 12:35

Agree! battue

[battue2] 07/2/2012 11:22

imatsu,
I think this will drop back 41-42p before moving to 47-48p by the end of feb for results. Most of wich will be priced in by then.But if no dividend annoucement, Hold onto your hat! All imho.

[imastu pidgitaswell] 07/2/2012 09:53

A collector's item - please don't follow anything I do and expect it to end well...

:-)

[q2u] 07/2/2012 09:42

good call yesterday imastu. I followed you first thing this morning, glad I did and will wait until our Greek "allies" lie their way out of the current impasse for another few months or go bust.

[imastu pidgitaswell] 07/2/2012 09:25

Not sure they're really reservations, but I take your point - an operating margin that has grown from 6.9% to over 10% cannot continue at that of growth, and no-one would want it to. It should settle at sustainable rate. Likewise with sales prices - the last thing to wish for is a price boom.

Volumes in Spring are key, and there is nothing negative there. But time for profit taking anyway...

[imastu pidgitaswell] 07/2/2012 09:21

Where's she gonna stop...

44p test again - can it close above it? I would say not, this time round.

Need to just sit on my hands and give it time to bottom before heading back in - a discipline I just don't have...

[127tolmers] 07/2/2012 07:21

Positive announcement but just a couple of hints of reservation. May cause housebuilder shares to pause and regroup.

Bellway p.l.c.

Trading Update

7 February 2012

Bellway is today updating the market as to trading in the six months from 1
August 2011 to 31 January 2012, prior to the announcement of the Interim
Results for that period on Tuesday 27 March.

During the period the Group completed the sale of 2,455 homes (2011 - 2,332),
an increase of 5%, driven by completions of private sales, which have risen by
a healthy 15%. This increase in the proportion of private completions, combined
with other changes in mix, has resulted in the average selling price of all
completions increasing by 8.7% to around £183,000 (2011 - £168,428). The Board
expects that the average selling price will grow further, albeit at a slower
rate, during the remainder of the financial year.

The operating margin continues its improvement and is set to reach double
digits for the six months to 31 January (2011 - 6.9%). This rate of improvement
has now slowed and although the operating margin should continue to grow, it
will do so at a more sustainable pace.

Around £105 million has been spent on land and land creditors in the period and
whilst net debt at the end of January is around £12 million, the Group still
retains facilities of £300 million, which expire in tranches up to November
2016.

Since 1 August reservations have averaged around 89 per week from 205 sites
compared to 80 per week from 185 sites last year. Whilst incentives are used
widely, this increase has been achieved despite reducing the use of shared
equity as an incentive to only 5% of reservations taken. The Group now enters
the second half of the year with an order book of £423 million (2011 - £402
million), having already reserved or legally completed 83% of this year's
target.

The spring selling season is about to commence and last year provides a
challenging comparison in terms of reservations. Nevertheless, with visitor
levels up by around 20% since the beginning of January and with the
Government's new `Mortgage Indemnity Guarantee' (MIG) scheme about to be
launched, early indications are that the housing market remains resilient. To
what extent this resilience is sustainable can be better assessed at the end of
March when the Group announces its Interim Results.

[imastu pidgitaswell] 06/2/2012 13:48

Taken some off the table - just looking around at others and the market making me think it might pull back. As ever, I'll be plain wrong, so still left over half (a little above break-even) still going.

[racg] 06/2/2012 10:26

It will smash 44p, famous last words.

[imastu pidgitaswell] 06/2/2012 08:32

Yeah, just looked at the trades. Back to sleep...


Interestingly - PFD, which was tipped on here on 27th January at 10p, is now priced at....10p. Long term game, this investing lark...







Good - and necessary - test of 44p from above in place at the moment. It will doubtless come back to 44p more than once, given the level of resistance there has been here.

[jibba_jabba] 06/2/2012 08:31

Spread was very wide, trying to knock out stops..

[imastu pidgitaswell] 06/2/2012 08:22

How did that opening happen? 5% lower? Bloody hell, spend days climbing a wall, then 1 minute to fall down it on nothing at all...