Taylor Wimpey Share Discussion Threads

[sir rational] 22/2/2011 08:26

Yes indeed - some dodgy dealers have even started up those 95% mortgages again

[127tolmers] 22/2/2011 08:19

Maybe this is the reason!!!

House prices to fall "20% in two years"
Jessica Bown
Feb 21st 2011 at 7:00AM


The property market is heading for a 'double-dip' as rising unemployment and spending cuts strangle demand, forcing prices down by up to 20% over the next two years, experts claim.

Rising interest rates are also expected to add momentum to plunging property prices, despite new figures showing that asking prices have climbed this month.

Paul Diggle, property specialist at research consultants Capital Economics, believes the average home remains up to 20% overvalued.

He said: "Prices are trending slowly downwards at the moment, but our view is that this is really the start of the second leg of the correction, and we expect prices to fall significantly further."


With the mortgage market still tight and unemployment rising, 2011 could therefore see prices falling back to earth.

Andrew Brigden, of financial research group Fathom, agrees that house prices are 20%, or possibly 30%, too high in relation to average wages.

"I think the correction will come at some point, even if interest rates stay where they are, but if rates go up, that will hasten it," he said.

The cost of the average home fell by up to one fifth between mid-2008 and the end of 2009 as the credit crunch gripped the mortgage market.

It regained about half of that ground last year, aided by record low interest rates. And the latest statistics from property website Rightmove indicate that asking prices are still on the up.

However, a second significant fall - or double-dip - is now being predicted to bring prices down to well below pre-recession levels.
Reduced demand from buyers is one other factor that seems to point towards this happening this year, with higher deposits and tougher credit conditions closing the doors on a purchase for many potential buyers.

Miles Shipside, director of Rightmove, said: "With lenders stating that they expect mortgage lending to remain static at around 2010 levels throughout 2011, and new seller numbers practically unchanged year-on-year, what might have been seen as a passing phase of low transaction levels in the housing market now looks set to be the norm for the foreseeable future."

He added only around 530,000 mortgages were taken out during 2010, while Rightmove recorded 1.3m properties coming on to the market, highlighting the imbalance between supply and demand which has been putting downward pressure on prices.

[sir rational] 22/2/2011 08:18

TW.'s Libyan office is closing as a precaution

[barf2] 22/2/2011 08:15

......and then we open.....

[sir rational] 21/2/2011 17:41

I'm getting good vibes

[127tolmers] 21/2/2011 12:56

This is the FT article. 95% mortgages with 2 building societies for first time buyers

[127tolmers] 21/2/2011 12:51

The Rightmove article is quite interesting in its regional comparisons.



Greater London 4.2%, South East 5.2%, E Anglia 5.3%, Yorkshire 6.7%, North 5.4% NW 3.7% and the rest dogs.

I think these are now the heartlands of the publicly quoted housebuilders.

Rightmove claim to be the best leading index based on 90% new houses coming on the market being advertised through them. This appears to be the index to watch with respect to housing sentiment.

They still echo the housebuilders by saying that mortgage funding is the bottleneck.

There was an interesting article in the FT at the weekend that TW had joined up with a finance company to provide starter mortgages.

[jibba_jabba] 21/2/2011 08:26

Rightmove HPI Actual 3.1% Previous 0.3%

[sir rational] 21/2/2011 08:24

Wee bitty consolidation then Bob's your uncle

[startrekker] 18/2/2011 18:58

Once the banks have sorted themselves out.... they will be dragging customers off the street to lend them money. The worst is behind us, full steam ahead!

[sir rational] 18/2/2011 15:14

We break 38.5p and it's hello 45p

[sir rational] 18/2/2011 15:11

Of course I'm optimistic - chart is excellent and fundamentals equally good

[fewdollarsmore] 18/2/2011 15:05

Sir Rational - you should be renamed Sir Optimistic

[sir rational] 18/2/2011 14:31

Not in my books ;-)

New 6 month highs never were disappointing AFAIAC

[smurfy2001] 18/2/2011 14:27

Dissapointing share price action, very dissapointing.

[sir rational] 18/2/2011 11:29

Mere guesswork but I think there's a decent chance the TM deal will be trailed in the weekend press.

Imminent

[jibba_jabba] 18/2/2011 10:45

Put in a buy for 37.80p.. Trade max now back to 500000..

[sir rational] 18/2/2011 10:29

Taylor Wimpey was in demand, 1½p stronger at 38½p on heavy volume, rekindling speculation that it was close to offloading its North American operations. Fellow builder Barratt Developments firmed 2p to 100½p after buy support from Panmure Gordon, which anticipates a refinancing of the company by the middle of this year.

Read more:

[sir rational] 18/2/2011 10:21

Imastu - as you well know, you're either pregnant or you're not.

For TW., TM will be sold or it will not.

Price will be $1b or it will not.

Money will pay off debt or it will not.

SP will properly reflect NAV or it will not.

[sir rational] 18/2/2011 09:05

5 day view is a bit more useful