Taylor Wimpey Share Discussion Threads

[imastu pidgitaswell] 17/2/2011 12:53

A close above 38.2 would be good - a point of resistance a few times previously.

200 day sma now moving upwards, as it will do as long as its stays above 30-33p(hah!)

[fewdollarsmore] 17/2/2011 12:46

Aphro - thanks for the detailed response, 10% is not to be sniffed at.. I am hoping for a rise into the 40p plus level and breakout based on sale news...

[aphrodites] 17/2/2011 12:22

FEW$MORE

The Elliott 5 Waves are not predictive in that way.

It doesn't matter what charting techniques you use there are always big figure prices which act as a barrier.

40p will be the first barrier to overcome if 38p holds today. Not only as a big figure but also the level it retraced from in March 2010

That might well mark the end of Wave 3 or more likely it will mark time gyrating either side for a few days on good volume of trading. I would not want to see it retrace much below 37.75p.

If we break 40p on good volume I would back it challenging the 44p level probably in Wave 5 which it hit in April 2010. That to my mind would be a very good sell level. But I shall be out before then!

But much will depend on the continued daily trading volumes as to how shallow the 5 Waves are. As I said before I am always looking to take 10% sometimes more off my trades. And of course I do not always get them right!!!!

[fewdollarsmore] 17/2/2011 12:04

Aphro - where does leg 5 take us?

[aphrodites] 17/2/2011 11:58

Well the break of 38p on good volume and in the Elliott Wave Leg 3 has met my buy criteria and I am now back in reasonable size.

Looks like a bit more support today and we might even challenge the 40p level next week.

[fewdollarsmore] 17/2/2011 11:30

Come on baby break 38p and stay above..

[imastu pidgitaswell] 17/2/2011 09:51

I wasn't really expecting anything, I don't follow RDW, I was just looking for some market indicators.

What I meant was that their operating margin was 5.6%, which compares with TW's UK operating margin for the last half year of 7.5% - ergo not too good for RDW, but not relevant to TW. Similarly their net debt has inched up from £49m to £51m - again, that is RDW-specific, not relevant to TW.

I agree that from a TW perspective, it augers well - as does the RDW Net Asset Value of 143p a share, which compares with the current share price of 135p, i.e. 95% or so.

If TW were to be valued on a similar basis, after including the 9p of deferred tax assets already announced, it would be around 95% of 56-57p, i.e. 53-54p. Any announcement of a sale of Taylor Morrison at or around its net asset value would leave TW with a similar profile to RDW of a low debt UK housebuilder, and therefore it would be logical to expect a similar valuation to net assets.

Here's hoping and waiting...

[wendsworth] 17/2/2011 08:56

imastu : What were you expecting?
Thought the RDW results were positive for TW! Average share price UP 16% Gross Margin at 13.4 %. Augurs well for 3rd March?

[imastu pidgitaswell] 17/2/2011 08:40

Not a great deal of useful info in those RDW results - revenues and sale prices up around 15%, not interested in their specific margins or net debt, but they're not too good.

The chairman Steve Morgan is quite blunt in his commentary, usual stuff about mortgage availability, but the only real insight into the current market and outlook is:

"While it is still too early to call the spring market the second half has started encouragingly. Reservations in the first six weeks are comfortably ahead of the same period last year, averaging 0.65 sales per outlet per week. These figures must be treated with a degree of caution however as they undoubtedly include some "catch up" from the December freeze. Nevertheless it is also encouraging to note that visitor levels are the highest recorded during the same period for several years."

and

"Looking ahead, house prices have been stable for some considerable time now and we do not share the pessimism of some commentators that there will be a major fall in house prices during the coming year."

Which could be worse - and is a picture likely to be replicated for all the UK builders...

[jibba_jabba] 16/2/2011 20:18

RDW tomoz...

[gbh2] 16/2/2011 17:34

I'll take 50p thank you :)

[wendsworth] 16/2/2011 17:18

I'd settle for the 67p!

[imastu pidgitaswell] 16/2/2011 13:42

Very true - £1.67 it is then. Wouldn't want to be overly-optimistic...

:-)

[barf2] 16/2/2011 13:05

It's getting more and more tempted have a serious run at 37p.

Go on TW,take your balls in your hand and charge.

[spennysimmo] 16/2/2011 13:04

£1.67 is the equivalent of the old £5 level. There are now 3 times as many shares than there were then.

[fewdollarsmore] 16/2/2011 12:54

Cannot seem to get past 37p and hold above... I feel only the US sale will allow this to shift north.

[wendsworth] 16/2/2011 11:50

Slytherin : Interesting post . Sounds like you were a bit of a jonah for the Grecians! Its the ONLY supporters owned football league club and one of very few that trade in the black.

I'm sure the U.S./Canadian 'sale' when it is finalised will boost the share price but I must say I hadn't pencilled-in a return to £5 level!

[slytherin] 16/2/2011 11:34

Off-topic: Go Grecians! Not doing so bad these days. I suffered some terrible afternoons at St.James in the early 90's whilst at University, 0-4 home to Darlington was the average result. Still have a soft spot for them, saw them at Wembley lose to Morecambe.

On-topic: we just need that US sale announcement to create a TW break-out, then no obvious resistance up to £5 :o)

[wendsworth] 16/2/2011 09:02

jibba_jabba : I've been steadily building up a holding in these since last December .Like you , I buy although prepared to trade on the side. Haven't done the latter with TW yet.I really do think this share is about to 'take off'. So many 'positives' ..the share is relatively cheap in my view.

For what its worth I'm a lifelong Exeter City supporter and just happened to be having a pre-match meal before the recent Southampton fixture only to discover Taylor Wimpey were jointly sponsoring the game. Although not specific the TW staff I spoke to in general terms were extremely positive about the future for the company. As ever.....we'll see!

I see building , property and financial sectors as the ones to be in for 2011.

shaws37 : You'll need 'deep pockets' and ' nerves of steel'! Don't let me try to put you off!

[shaws37] 15/2/2011 15:38

Cheers, I was thinking about trying CFD's but i'll burn my fingers probably. lol

[jibba_jabba] 15/2/2011 15:37

I buy the whole share...

[shaws37] 15/2/2011 15:30

Jibba, are you swing trading with CFD's and have your core holdings in certificates ?

[jibba_jabba] 15/2/2011 15:29

Wends my attempt yesterday was 36.1p, didn't get it... today at the mo it is 35.80p.. I have a core holding, which i will keep, i'm just trying swing trade, sometimes taking all profit and stake money and other times just the stake money..

[wendsworth] 15/2/2011 14:58

jibba_jabba : I too put a buy limit order in for 35.10 yesterday but decided to top up this morning on weakness.

Have a feeling the results due on 3rd March could give the share price a 5 to 10% boost.