Taylor Wimpey Share Discussion Threads

[beckers2008] 03/10/2024 22:14

K,

"Beckers2008 - 02 Aug 2023 - 13:03:25 - 14941 of 19139
From Property118.com

"The average UK rent has soared by 19% to reach £1,137 in July from June and voids are dropping quickly to highlight the strong competition in the private rented sector (PRS), one index reports"

Expect rents to increase by another 10% in Q3 as Students increase the demand.

Buying a new build is becoming ever more attractive, rents within 45 minutes of London Mainline are now £1,400 pcm for a 3 bed ex council house.
Expect those ex council houses to be £1,500 pcm in Q1 2024" END.

I underestimated, Q1 2024 reached £1,600 pcm.

Watch and learn trolls.

Now when is this house price crash going to happen, lol, just lol!

[beckers2008] 03/10/2024 21:48

Sikhthetech,

You are simply a fraud who is a clueless mug-punter and whom lost it's shirt from October 2018 when it called TW. short, lol!

Tell me, when is your each and every year's house price crash going to happen for the last six years, lol, just lol!

You are not credible.

[kreature] 03/10/2024 21:23

Long term Landlords having to sell before capital gains tax goes up in budget from 24% to potentially 45%. Especially if EPC is D. Who wants to be doing up an old property to get to the required level C when they can maybe get out now. More stock, lower prices.

[jugears] 03/10/2024 18:08

Sick I think I said higher interest rates were manageable by most people, of course falling rates are going to be better for all even the majority that can afford to.pay more will be better off,my point is you tend to have a larger mortgage than you do income so in most case a reduction in rates would far outway tax hikes, Is that house prices & the share price I here creeping up?

[uhound] 03/10/2024 12:33

Properties in my area are struggling to sell. Affordability is the issue. Prices declining still.

In some areas they are seeing a lot of ex-rental stock coming on for sale and at reduced prices in the hope of a quick sale.

Along with budget coming up, it will be a while before the housing market really gets going again.

Obviously in some of the cheaper parts of the country it may be a different story.

[sikhthetech] 03/10/2024 12:16

Jugears

Hindsight posting, yet again!!

After 2.5years, the Ukraine war is still ongoing and is significantly worse. Now Middle East building up to war. Energy cap up 10%.
Yet BoE talking about reducing rates. Hardly backs up your assertion Ukraine War was the main factor behind inflationary pressures, does it? lol


"A quarter percent interest rate cut on a 250k mortgage would save you £625 a year, a 2% increase in tax would cost a 30k a year wage earner £350 a year so how would tax hikes negate interest rate cuts?"

There you go, mixing metrics to suit your agenda. Unless a £30k homebuyer has huge deposit or equity, they not going to be able to buy a £250k home, 8x their income, are they?

When interest rates were rising you suggested it would have a minimal impact on housing market, homeowners. Now rates coming down, you suggesting any fall will help homeowners significantly. Make up your mind!!!

[beckers2008] 02/10/2024 13:36

Jugs,

Sikhthetech has yet again proved himself a fool.
A village idiot and clueless mug-punter.

Now when is the UK house price crash going to happen, lol, just lol!

Sikhthetech is not credible.

[jugears] 01/10/2024 14:57

Covid followed directly by war in Ukraine caused fuel & energy prices to rocket & a shortage of some materials,hence prices rise in this case very dramatically, The Boe should have started raising rates as early as 2012 IMO & should never have fallen below 2%, I think that even if rates fell back to 1% it would be extremely unlikely that inflation will stay dead at 2%, the world has changed since covid, energy prices have risen 10% today that will inevitably push inflation back to at least 4%, companies in this country have been carrying the majority of price rise costs themselves for years to remain competitive, but I think covid has taught a lot of us that enough is enough & costs increases have to be past on. Meanwhile I here that house sales are increasing,it doesn't take much to bring confidence back to the market!As for Labour I feel its going to be a very long old 5 years

A quarter percent interest rate cut on a 250k mortgage would save you £625 a year, a 2% increase in tax would cost a 30k a year wage earner £350 a year so how would tax hikes negate interest rate cuts???? very unlikely to see a 2% Tax hike anyway but very very likely to see rates fall 2% IMEO! that's a 5k a year saving on your mortgage, tax would have to increase by nearly 30% to negate that!, do your maths please & before you say anything I have calculated tax on the amount of wage after your tax free allowance.

[sikhthetech] 01/10/2024 13:06

Yes, Labour seem to be clueless.

Tax and spend never works.

Tax increases will negate interest rate falls.

[sikhthetech] 01/10/2024 12:51

Changing your mind again, now evidence has been posted.

You stated the war caused inflationary pressures. Those inflationary pressures existed long before. The Ukraine war has in fact escalated with Ukraine occupying Russian land. The war is still ongoing yet inflation is back down to around 2-3%, isn't it? So excludes the Ukraine war as the main inflationary pressures.

That's my point, BoE should have started increasing rates when Covid support ended. Glad you're now agreeing, in hindsight that there wasn't Ukraine war in Sept or Liz Truss wasn't in govn.

You're forecasts are usually wrong. Your hindsight claims are usually right...surprisingly. lol

[jugears] 01/10/2024 12:42

Sickly, I'm not saying there wasn't slight pressure there before but covid Its after effects & Ukraine war escalated prices, did interest rates rise in September 2021? was there a war in Ukraine in September 2021? £3.00 or not I have done very well here thanks so I am not complaining.

[sikhthetech] 01/10/2024 12:29

The inflationary pressures existed long before the Ukraine war and Liz Truss govn.


Facts:

June 2021
I posted that there's inflationary pressures so need interest rate rises. Covid support ending. This is when the BoE should have started to increase interest rates.
Foresight not hindsight



Nov 2021
BoE starts to raise interest rates - 5 months after I posted re inflationary pressure, so need interest rate rises

Feb 2022
Ukraine War - 3 months after the BoE starts increasing interest rates
So NOT to do with Ukraine War

Sept 2022
Liz Truss PM and Budget
So 10 months after the BoE started increasing interest rates
So NOT to do with Liz Truss


My post from June 2021 was because the govn said they were starting to wind down covid support. People starting to go back out, shopping, etc


sikhthetech25 Jun '21 - 12:27 - 4052 of 19127 Edit
Jugears thinks 300p within next 3 months. I think significantly lower.

The fundamentals don't take into account the challenges HBs NOW face going forward, like SD holiday starting to end next week, now in new Help to Buy scheme, furlough ending, leasehold/cladding scandal, inflationary pressure so interest rate rises, globally house prices too high..


Btw, Jugears, your 300p by Sept 2021 never happened. lol

[roguetraderuk] 01/10/2024 11:59

no tyga the truss budget relied on too much borrowed money thats why the bonds collapsed. only the reserve currency country (USA) can get away with that. labour needs to be careful with its budget as if the borrowing is up there too, you will see a similar result in uk bonds sterling and stockmarket. its in their nature to spend but they will need to be careful otherwise heads will roll once again.

[sikhthetech] 01/10/2024 11:46

Jugears,

"however I'm not sure what part lower rates contributed to.in flatiron that had been.caused by a war"

What war or do you mean tensions in China/Taiwan, Middle East, Ukraine?

[jugears] 01/10/2024 08:16

Sickly, I always said that rates should never have fallen lower than 2% in the first place being below that did not help anyone, & yes I agree rates were to low for to long but should have started raising them every quarter rather than every month, however I'm not sure what part lower rates contributed to.in flatiron that had been.caused by a war that created higher energy cost & higher fuel prices which led to higher factory gate prices & if you have more money going out you need more coming in in wages, Imeo low rates had very little if any impact on inflation this time, far to many other factors involved,hope fully rates will settle at 3.5%.

[tygarreg] 01/10/2024 06:55

I remember at time of Liz Truss that BofE did not follow USA in raising rates and the GBP got hammered. Liz Truss budget followed immediately and she took the blame for Bof E mistake!

[kreature] 01/10/2024 06:04

3.2% house price growth is only 1% above inflation. Hardly anything o write home about. Plus it’s only a national average, probably very different in Royston Vasey?

[sikhthetech] 30/9/2024 15:56

Good to see the ex-BoE Governor agreeing that BoE were too slow to start raising interest rates. I predicted rates should rise 6 months before the BoE started raising them.
As expected, rates rose too late.




Rates low for too long, says ex-Bank of England boss

"Record high inflation was caused by the Bank of England keeping interest rates too low for too long, according to its former head."




sikhthetech25 Jun '21 - 12:27 - 4052 of 19121 Edit

Jugears thinks 300p within next 3 months. I think significantly lower.

The fundamentals don't take into account the challenges HBs NOW face going forward, like SD holiday starting to end next week, now in new Help to Buy scheme, furlough ending, leasehold/cladding scandal, inflationary pressure so interest rate rises, globally house prices too high..



O/T
AML.
Not surprised share price crashed. My friend who works at AM said sales had been slowing due to affordability problems, home and abroad

[jugears] 30/9/2024 10:14

Spudders, I'm taking a small punt today but may have further to fall yet but as you know I invest for the long term although now its more like my kids & grand kids future, as for house prices, well we all new they were still rising except sikh lol

[spudders] 30/9/2024 10:04

Times: House prices rise at fastest pace in 2 years !
Jug, o/t AML.L taking a dive today, do you still have on watchlist. I’m looking at dipping my toe.🤞ㇿ5;

[beckers2008] 26/9/2024 12:13

"Beckers2008 - 19 Sep 2024 - 15:54:19 - 19085 of 19113
Remember my statement...

BoE base rate at 6%
Absolutely no chance.

Q3 2024 interest rate reduction?
Absolutely every chance.
I was correct yet again!

I expect the UK's next rate cut to come in Q4 2024 followed by four quarterly cuts in 2025 and one cut in 2026 resulting in a 3.5 per cent base rate by the middle of 2026.

Watch and learn trolls, you have lost the argument as I told you over a year ago.

Now when is the UK house price crash going to happen, lol, just lol!"

[baracuda2] 26/9/2024 12:08

Well you would say that wouldn't you

[baracuda2] 26/9/2024 12:07

Totally agree jugs, house prices will definitely increase

[sikhthetech] 26/9/2024 11:55

UH,

Yep, there's been more enquiries, which is different from final sales... discounts, realistic pricing by sellers and increase in sellers.

[uhound] 26/9/2024 11:46

Agents round my way, reckon buyers are waiting for interest rate cuts and the budget.

Very slow currently and prices still reducing!