Taylor Wimpey Share Discussion Threads

[roguetraderuk] 07/8/2024 15:25

not pi sikh, people in business. but tends to be bigger business as im outside of the uk so it tends to be people working for large corps that have interests in the uk but are based in europe. regular pi are usually the last to know btw and classically sell at the low and buy the highs.

[jugears] 07/8/2024 15:19

Sikh, most students are houses on student specific accommodation, ive worked on thousands, tiny pokey little bedsits not suitable as a family home, you appear to be getting desperate? I can see this being 1.60 again soon.

[sikhthetech] 07/8/2024 15:14

Rogue,

"as for what most see in front of them, i speak to people and exchange experiences as well as looking at the data. "

That's exactly what I do. My research, experience of stockmarket and housing market is different from yours. No problem with that.

Given there are approx 12.5m PIs in the UK, have you spoken to 6.5m of them!! If not then how can you claim 'most'

[roguetraderuk] 07/8/2024 14:49

sikh, labour is high tax and high spend. this is a known for any student of politcal history. much of this spend is going to infrastructure which helps productivity although is in itself inflationary. however the benefits will be deflationary. as to the success of their programs time will tell. many will fail, there will be some levels of success. we shall see. your opinion not facts on house prices affordability etc are just that. 20% pay 80% of the taxes, while buying a house hasnt been cheap for 40 years now. in the uk its structural as in its one of fewer avenues for investment of accumulated wealth than you have say in the states. the downside of this is a stockmarket that prior to this year had gone nowhere for 20 years. but i digress.
as for what most see in front of them, i speak to people and exchange experiences as well as looking at the data. that goes for all sectors. we ae at where we are at right now. stick with the trend until it changes. its more constructive for your wealth as even by standing still (flat) you end up going backwards relatively (inflation).

[sikhthetech] 07/8/2024 14:42

Btw Jugears, I also predicted the rioting in UK by the far right. My prediction was 2 years ago as I saw it was spreading around the world, it takes time to filter through. It had been simmering for a while and now they using any excuse




Tell me what do you think will happen when workers leave the UK?
What will happen to universities who are dependent on foreign students. It's just weeks before the new term starts. Universities could go bust.

That's potentially thousands of fewer foreign student needing accommodation. Landlords dependent on students for income, what will they do?

It's one way to bring down net migration....

[jugears] 07/8/2024 14:31

Here's one for you sikh

The bellwether S&P Global UK Construction Purchasing Managers’ Index rose at its fastest rate for 26 months to 55.3 in July from 52.2 in June.

All three categories of construction saw activity increase in July as work on housing projects returned to growth.

[beckers2008] 07/8/2024 14:30

Barclays offers new cheapest mortgage at 3.84% to show rate war ‘off and running’
Lenders have been continually cutting rates in recent days but Barclays has taken the top spot.

All as expected...
Earnings growth to resume in 2025 and 2026

[sikhthetech] 07/8/2024 14:12

rogue,

It's not all opinion.
Fact, opinions based on facts.

Govn DID increase public sector pay. Pay rises are inflationary.
Min wage DID rise significantly, which leads to those who are just above them to ask for higher increases as well. Again inflationary.

Autumn budget. The chancellor, herself, has said there's a black hole and hinted at tax rises. Tax rises do impact affordability as people have less in their pockets. This can offset any reduction in interest rates.

Opinion based on facts. House price are too high, affordability, lenders/govn desperately trying to offer incentives.

Opinion based on fact. Given HBs have reduced builds, who will build the hundreds of thousands of low margin social housing?
That will impact HB prices.


Question. Who will build the hundreds of thousands of new social housing giventhe HBs themselves, have reduced builds due to demand, due to affordability



"thats what most are seeing in front of them."

How do you know what most are seeing in front of them??


I go by facts and my experience of the property market and markets.

[jugears] 07/8/2024 14:05

Sick,which house builders have said they couldn't sell more houses than they were built & which houses builders said they struggled to sell any of the houses that they had planned to build??
A few days ago America was going into recession & the world was going to end, but seemingly today its not & now all the shares have gone back up, quite how America effects UK house sales I do not know,but I have made a very nice PAPER profit since Monday morning, once again all as expected, mu estate agent says this last week has been the best since covid! as O have said before it doesn't take much fo buyers to return to the market, we have the election out of the way & interest rayed in a down ward spiral,INEO we ate going to see momentum increasing steadily,hope you closed that short at 1.48.
No one will build 100's of thousands of low value houses because there is no money in it.

[roguetraderuk] 07/8/2024 14:02

sikh thats all opinion, im looking at the facts and the trends. both of those can change and if that happens you must react to that, but at the moment you have got tailwinds for the sector. no bubbles and profits that come with them, but precovid trend back to normal best describes it. thats what most are seeing in front of them. how long it last its your job to monitor it.

[sikhthetech] 07/8/2024 13:47

Rogue

"while pay is stickier its def a rearview mirror thing in the private sector "

Not at all. The govn recently announced huge rises for some public sectors, which is inflationary.

The autumn budget should be interesting. Expect tax rises, which will impact affordability.

House prices are too high. Building 300k pa will lead to oversupply and lower prices.
Who will build hundreds of thousands of social housing at low margins?


HB/housing market newsflow has been as expected:

[roguetraderuk] 07/8/2024 13:41

boe will be driving kicking and screaming to cuts as bailey "asleep at the wheel" is almost glacial compared to powell who himself is most certainly not the hare in the hare and tortoise race. uk growth is more tepid than in the states and while pay is stickier its def a rearview mirror thing in the private sector all of which will means a nov cut is v possible esp if there are any ripples from the states. so while its not blue skies there are certain tailwinds here and a few areas you may want to be involved in.

[uhound] 07/8/2024 12:32

Yes Sikh, that's exactly the reason HB's are building fewer houses than previously. Affordability.

As you also point out, the BTL market is taking a massive hit currently with landlords selling - and in the areas I have contacts, the agents are telling me sales to investors have fallen off a cliff, plus they are seeing more and more landlords coming to market to sell their properties.

Interest rate reduction may help, but depends how far they fall and how soon, as prices are too high and apparently going higher if you believe the Halifax!

In reality, depends on the area.

No denying loads of people want to buy, but the reality is a high percentage of those can't afford to.

[beckers2008] 07/8/2024 11:51

NatWest launches lowest mortgage rate on the market at 3.97%
Experts say they expect more mortgage cuts to come in the next few weeks...

All as expected...
Earnings growth to resume in 2025 and 2026.

[kreature] 07/8/2024 11:49

Yep, affordablity is the main issue, (after the “scamming̶1; as one MP called it), and that’s not just because of mortgage rates but also the cost of living crisis. I’m surprised it hasn’t led to hyperinflation, yet.

[sikhthetech] 07/8/2024 11:19

rogue,

HBs have been building fewer homes due to lack of demand due to affordability.
That hasn't gone away. Homeowners, potential homebuyers need to adjust to more normalised mortgage rates. They got used to cheap deals.

Govn mandatory plans to build even more will just lead to oversupply.

With more and more getting into mortgage debt, the number of repossessions will only increase.

The environment for Air BnB/B2l investors isn't favourable as it used to be. That should lead to more properties being sold by these investors, increasing supply.

Net migration should reduce, especially if the deplorable recent riots dissuades people from coming to the UK.

[sikhthetech] 07/8/2024 11:13

Sp moving with the ftse

The main problems of affordability still exists.
The HB sector is hyped.



sikhthetech20 Feb '22 - 15:26 - 5884 of 5899 Edit
<...>
When the housing market crashes, no HB is immune from the crash. Likewise, listed HBs are not immune from stockmarket falls or movements.

Govn support, provided during pandemic, has ended. Repossessions which were stopped during pandemic are legal again.
Around 30k homeowners in severe mortgage debt.
Inflationary pressure, interest rate rises, NI rises, Council tax rises, energy price rises all impact affordability.

[roguetraderuk] 07/8/2024 11:10

unless we go into a recession the tailwind from the housing program and rates should keep house prices at or above inflation depending on the success of the program. initially premiums are being built in on the theory of it but further down the line the mkt will want to see it filter to the bottom line. i think you can still get new trend highs in most related names over next 6 months but ath for the whole sector is unlikely without something that can really move margin growth.

[kreature] 07/8/2024 10:36

RICS valuation is assuming no onerous covenants on report. I don’t see how they could possibly assume that if it were a new build? It also assumes ‘absolute freehold’. Which would be highly debatable on a new build imo

[cupra kid] 07/8/2024 07:38

That latest purchase Jugs is already looking healthy. Nice one

[uhound] 06/8/2024 15:55

Here is an idea!

With the bullish and bearish views on here, why don't the bulls just ignore the bears comments and the bears ignore the bulls comments!

Everyone has an opinion and supposedly an investment strategy and everyone is right at some point.

[beckers2008] 06/8/2024 14:42

K,

Together with your 'detailed report, lol, have you increased your short position?

I think your judgement is askew having shorted at £1.095 in November 2023!
Not having a 15% stop loss was a big mistake and you are underwater big time, lol, just lol!

[kreature] 06/8/2024 14:37

Why only 50k, ?

Are you saving the other 450k for a lower share price ?

[sikhthetech] 06/8/2024 14:10

Jugears
"Sikh where am I down I haven't sold any its a paper loss"

As you haven't sold any, then how have the shares you bought yesterday already given you a good return in 1 day, better than 6 months in the bank???

That's exactly the point me, Kreature, DVD, UH and other make... You claim you're making money when in fact you have made nothing and know nothing of how the markets work.

How have the markets reacted to the fantastic interest rate cut? Oh, down around 10% since last week!!!!

The rise was during a hyped sector.

All as expected.
;-)



JUGEARS5 Aug '24 - 23:33 - 18797 of 18821

even buying 50k this morning at what I consider a good rate doesn't worry me,tbf it's already given me a good return better than 6 months in the bank in one day.