Taylor Wimpey Share Discussion Threads

[gaygay3] 05/7/2022 16:55

Lot of people in fixed rate mortgages

[sunshine today] 05/7/2022 15:01

BOE to lift rates 50 basis points in just a single month.

Have TW investors any idea what means.

Lots of mortgages were at 1.5%

That’s 25% plus in 31 days.!!

[sikhthetech] 05/7/2022 14:57

Martyn,

You too, good luck..

re Cairns Homes, the Irish builder.

The builders were also positive pre-the previous housing market crash.
Oh look, prices crashed more than the 40% in Dublin... lol


And oh look, it doesn't take a majority of homebuyers/b2l investors to be in trouble for a housing market crash...
;-)




"The collapse of the property bubble was one of the major contributing factors to the post-2008 Irish banking crisis.

House prices in Dublin, the largest city, were briefly down 56% from their peak and apartment prices down over 62%.[3] For a time, house prices returned to twentieth century levels and mortgage approvals dropped to 1971 levels.[4] As of December 2012, more than 28% of Irish mortgages were in arrears or had been restructured and commercial and buy-to-let arrears were at 18%"

[sunshine today] 05/7/2022 14:52

Martyn9

Others on this BB have been talking about British Land.

It has and is, suffering from structural change.

The U.K. housing market is so outrageously out of kilter with average earnings, one could a massive 3/4 decline in house prices over the next 15 plus years.

Just like the Roman Empire some here are in for a massive shock.

Odd though it might seem today, in 2041 the U.K. law could be changed to prevent lending over 3 times income.

Maximum prices on a 1, 2, 3, 4, bed homes depending on location .

[martyn9] 05/7/2022 14:44

Sikh, well good luck with your short then, perhaps these could fall to sub £1 and if they do i will buy more for the long haul.

[sunshine today] 05/7/2022 14:44

You buy at the bottom not just shy of the top.

You also require increased EPS and dividends to attract new buyers into ANY share.

Who wants

Profit decline

Loss

New funding at huge discount

Bust.

A very real chance of the above.

[sikhthetech] 05/7/2022 14:29

Martyn
"The general market getting hammered dow and ftse dragging everything down, nothing more."

Apart from the drop/rise because of the 'several uncertain events during Q4-2020 (as predicted), the trend has been down since before the pandemic...

Post the covid bounce, the downtrend has been there over the past 18months.


Don't take my word for it, look at the TW graph for yourself. Look at the share price Feb 2019. Look at the share price Mar/Apr 2021, post covid bounce.

[tuftymatt] 05/7/2022 14:15

What about the BOE statement today?
Have to hope there is a short sharp dip this summer now before a rebound in the Autumn
Credit Suisse talking of 4,300 on the S&P still this year, down from 4,900, but still a big leap from circa 3,800 now.

[martyn9] 05/7/2022 13:24

The general market getting hammered dow and ftse dragging everything down, nothing more.

[sunshine today] 05/7/2022 12:01

It that a new TW low .??

[sunshine today] 05/7/2022 12:01

British Land has some property in good locations.

I can go along with that.

It’s valuations that are a hangover of previous decades. ( way to high for agile growing companies ).

The world, and working practices have moved on.

[sikhthetech] 05/7/2022 11:42

ghh

"Most investors are like sheep whereas, as Buffett says, they should be contrarian. This means being governed by risk:reward, not the herd mentality and BB trolls."

Exactly what I've been saying for ages and following my conviction... Be contrarian, look at risk/reward, don't be a sheep and wait for the herd.

Glad you agree...;-)


If the bull points can be countered then it makes the bear case stronger.
If the bear points can be countered then it makes the bull case stronger.

[ghhghh] 05/7/2022 11:37

Sunshine

As always, this boils down to location. Good green offices will continue to attract tenants. Poor locations/no green will be dead meat and likely end up as residential.

Brit Land and LS have seen this coming for years. BL now focused on campus incl residential

40% discount covers a lot of warts.

sikh

Markets are like a pendulum, always swinging between irrational extremes thanks to greed and fear. Most investors are like sheep whereas, as Buffett says, they should be contrarian. This means being governed by risk:reward, not the herd mentality and BB trolls.

[sunshine today] 05/7/2022 11:33

13 times average wage .

To purchase average house.

Nuts !

[sikhthetech] 05/7/2022 11:25

ST,

exactly. As I've been saying since 170-180p days, why would I buy any asset/shares if I believe it's going to be significantly lower

[sunshine today] 05/7/2022 11:19

Simple

I you want a property company or house builder buy after the crash.

It’s not rocket science.

[sikhthetech] 05/7/2022 11:18

ghh,

"Markets are not interested in value, only direction of travel."

If you've been investing for 30yrs then you would know markets look forward...

[sikhthetech] 05/7/2022 11:15

ghh,
"Cairn Homes trading update today, looks +ve"

You mean the Irish housebuilder...where the previous housing market crash was worse than UK

was the TU positive?


"Housebuilder Cairn Homes said it expects total build cost inflation for 2022 to reach up to 7 per cent as labour and materials prices rise.
That will add up to €17,000 to the cost of a unit, the company said."

"However, rising material costs have further stretched the affordability gap for the current generation of homebuyers. In the present environment, new homes output would materially reduce without the sensible Government interventions for first time buyers, including the First Homes initiative and Croí Cónaithe.”"






Homebuyers pulling out of deals over fears of property market crash

[sunshine today] 05/7/2022 11:13

Should be rent free within 4 years

“Whilst Retail leasing volumes were strong, the company has prioritised having strong occupancy rates at the expense of rent levels, which were 21% below previous passing rent.”

[sunshine today] 05/7/2022 11:06

At rents 1/4 of projections made 3 years ago.

[jugears] 05/7/2022 10:32

Demand for offices in London is increasing.

[sunshine today] 05/7/2022 10:02

With respect Brit Land and Land sec are in my view dire investments.

Let’s start with upward only rent reviews

GONE / Finished.

Offices will be in decline for the next 30 plus years

Cost of borrowing kills off new construction.

Yields need to be above inflation to spark investor interest

Discounts to NAV are an illusion when liquidity dries up.

[ghhghh] 05/7/2022 09:56

I've been investing for over 30 years and still amazed at how markets are so driven by irrational sentiment.

Immediately after CV-19 broke (and before vaccines when outlook dire) TW managed to raise £500m at 145p with directors coughing up c. £500m

Now we have strong trading albeit a slowdown must be imminent. However, aside from a few cranks infesting this board, there is no sign of a crash remotely comparable to CV-19.

Go figure! Markets are not interested in value, only direction of travel.

I'm buying Whitbread (an asset play) and bought Land Sec and Brit Land yesterday at 40% NAV discount. Can never call the bottom but on a mid term view I won't regret any of these asset plays. The 7 year chart on the HBs is mind boggling, especially since NAV's now 50% higher.

[ghhghh] 05/7/2022 09:36

Cairn Homes trading update today, looks +ve