Taylor Wimpey Share Discussion Threads

[sunshine today] 05/7/2022 11:19

Simple

I you want a property company or house builder buy after the crash.

It’s not rocket science.

[sikhthetech] 05/7/2022 11:18

ghh,

"Markets are not interested in value, only direction of travel."

If you've been investing for 30yrs then you would know markets look forward...

[sikhthetech] 05/7/2022 11:15

ghh,
"Cairn Homes trading update today, looks +ve"

You mean the Irish housebuilder...where the previous housing market crash was worse than UK

was the TU positive?


"Housebuilder Cairn Homes said it expects total build cost inflation for 2022 to reach up to 7 per cent as labour and materials prices rise.
That will add up to €17,000 to the cost of a unit, the company said."

"However, rising material costs have further stretched the affordability gap for the current generation of homebuyers. In the present environment, new homes output would materially reduce without the sensible Government interventions for first time buyers, including the First Homes initiative and Croí Cónaithe.”"






Homebuyers pulling out of deals over fears of property market crash

[sunshine today] 05/7/2022 11:13

Should be rent free within 4 years

“Whilst Retail leasing volumes were strong, the company has prioritised having strong occupancy rates at the expense of rent levels, which were 21% below previous passing rent.”

[sunshine today] 05/7/2022 11:06

At rents 1/4 of projections made 3 years ago.

[jugears] 05/7/2022 10:32

Demand for offices in London is increasing.

[sunshine today] 05/7/2022 10:02

With respect Brit Land and Land sec are in my view dire investments.

Let’s start with upward only rent reviews

GONE / Finished.

Offices will be in decline for the next 30 plus years

Cost of borrowing kills off new construction.

Yields need to be above inflation to spark investor interest

Discounts to NAV are an illusion when liquidity dries up.

[ghhghh] 05/7/2022 09:56

I've been investing for over 30 years and still amazed at how markets are so driven by irrational sentiment.

Immediately after CV-19 broke (and before vaccines when outlook dire) TW managed to raise £500m at 145p with directors coughing up c. £500m

Now we have strong trading albeit a slowdown must be imminent. However, aside from a few cranks infesting this board, there is no sign of a crash remotely comparable to CV-19.

Go figure! Markets are not interested in value, only direction of travel.

I'm buying Whitbread (an asset play) and bought Land Sec and Brit Land yesterday at 40% NAV discount. Can never call the bottom but on a mid term view I won't regret any of these asset plays. The 7 year chart on the HBs is mind boggling, especially since NAV's now 50% higher.

[ghhghh] 05/7/2022 09:36

Cairn Homes trading update today, looks +ve

[fenners66] 04/7/2022 07:19

In terms of detail :

Since ST mentioned Vegas

"
Nevada Housing Market Predictions

Real estate in Nevada has done its best to mimic national trends. For the better part of a decade, in fact, real estate in Nevada has exhibited many of the same characteristics as its national counterpart. Price increases, confidence in the market, and several other indicators are in line with national trends, but what does that mean moving forward? What can Nevada real estate investors, homeowners, and prospective buyers expect for the foreseeable future?

Mesquite could see an influx of buyers: With a median home value roughly $24,000 less than the state average, Mesquite looks like it may represent a bargain. That said, there’s reason to believe Mesquite should see an influx of younger buyers who are looking to find cheaper alternatives to cities like Reno, Las Vegas, and Carson City. Having already appreciated more than the state average in the last year, Mesquite’s median home value should continue the trend upwards. The attention generated by the city's relative affordability will potentially attract new buyers and stimulate higher appreciation rates. As a result, Mesquite could be a good place for local investors to consider looking.

Inventory will drive appreciation: Not unlike every other state across the country, the Nevada real estate market has found itself lacking in the inventory department. Most of Nevada’s largest cities, for that matter, have far fewer available listings than balanced markets typically exhibit, and the pandemic only made things worse. As a result, competition over the available houses has simultaneously increased prices and made it more difficult for buyers. And while new inventory is expected to come eventually, new listings are still a ways out, which means prices should increase for the foreseeable future

More people will move to the suburbs: Without a need for many people to live close to an office, many people are expecting a mass exodus from large cities. Today's work-from-home culture has enabled everyone to pack up and move to less-expensive and larger living spaces. As a result, we may see metropolitan prices decrease while suburban prices increase."

[fenners66] 04/7/2022 07:14

Real Estate Market Overview 2022

Median Home Value: $344,141

Median List Price: $404,333

1-Year Appreciation Rate: +20.9%

Median Home Value (1-Year Forecast): +11.6%

For Sale Inventory: 740,000 (-34.3% year over year)

New Listings: 361,995 (-25.9% year over year)

Homes Sold: 86,071 (-8.1% year over year)

Median Days To Pending: 7 (Unchanged year over year)

Median Rent: $1,343 (+12.5% year over year)

Rental Vacancy Rate: 5.8% (-0.6% year over year)

Price-To-Rent Ratio: 21.35

Delinquency Rate: 2.8% (-2.2% year over year)

Unemployment Rate: 3.6% (latest estimate by the Bureau Of Labor Statistics)

Population: 331,893,745 (latest estimate by the U.S. Census Bureau)

Median Household Income: $64,994 (latest estimate by the U.S. Census Bureau)

[fenners66] 04/7/2022 07:13

Perhaps you think the world is so large that if you make up some stats about another country , we cannot check it ?

You tried that with Canada
Now USA

Perhaps you could make up house price falls for Outer Mongolia next ?

[fenners66] 04/7/2022 07:12

So buywell where are you getting your USA BS from?

"Fortune Builders.com USA real estate says -

Prices rose everywhere, as demand greatly outweighed supply. Subsequently, more people could save money throughout the pandemic thanks to government stimuli and less spending.

The cost of homeownership has risen dramatically in a short period, which begs the question: Will housing market prices go down in 2022? The answer is most likely a resounding "no." Today's market leans too heavily in favor of sellers for prices to drop anytime soon. It's fair to assume prices will increase by as much as 11.6% in the coming year. Not only that, but prices will continue to increase as long as demand dramatically outweighs supply. Inventory is on the way, but it won't get here anytime soon, so there's a good chance the U.S. real estate market still has a lot of room to run up"


That's on top of

"Median Home Prices 2022

The median home price in the U.S. real estate market has enjoyed historical appreciation rates for the better part of a decade. In the second quarter of 2012, housing market prices bottomed out at around $162,000. Since then, real estate market trends pushed the median home value in the United States up for ten consecutive years, to the tune of 108.5%. Today, the median home value in the U.S. real estate market is now $344,141.

While the median home value has been increasing for quite some time, the most significant gains have occurred over the last two years. New market indicators onset by the pandemic have created an environment conducive to rapid appreciation rates. In just 24 months, the average value of homes in the United States jumped 36.0%"

[buywell3] 04/7/2022 00:52

Not green though is it --- we should ALL do our bit now to help planet Earth

buywell has NEVER bought a single OIL stock

Yes the USA is now cutting house prices --- circa 20% in some areas and with rates set to go higher this will only deflate the bubble quicker


In Australia a property price slump leads to 30% of properties pulled from auction

[mickinvest] 03/7/2022 23:43

I've always been comfortable buying oil and gas companies although first AGM I went to was Bett Brothers after buying one of their houses and their shares.

I'll bet anyone here that Serica Energy will outperform Wimpey.

£758m market Cap
£400m Net Cash
Adding cash every month.
About to spud a well that could double reserves taking around 3 months.
Dividend 5.5%
Price £2.80. Wimpey £1.18

There will be a crash in UK by year end almost certainly and once HPI goes negative, the vast majority of jobs around the country on £20k have no disposable income and unemployment will rise considerably. Oil will drop as well but Serica is 85% gas.

[sikhthetech] 03/7/2022 23:35

Mick,

Like I said completely contradicts himself..

Even the 98p, he was saying they won't reach 100p, whilst I was predicting they would fall, whereas he now claims "so I suppose it was inevitable that the share price would fall".

No conviction..

[mickinvest] 03/7/2022 23:30

JUGEARS - 23 Jun 2022 - 17:14:07 - 7349 of 7582
Sikh I only tell you when I buy not sell, rember I do also trade a few now not that I would call 10k loading up,maybe that's a lot to you? But it certainly not for me

[sikhthetech] 03/7/2022 23:27

Mick,

lol... Yes, even when Jugears claimed to be working 18-20hrs a day, he still replied to posts quickly with his lengthy bull about investing for 50yrs, having made millions. So contradictory and no consistency in his posts.

It's clear from his posts that he doesn't understand the property market..
;-)

[mickinvest] 03/7/2022 23:09

What do you mean about not trading in and out Jug, I pop in here from time to time and you've bought every dip I can remember, you've never stopped saying your rich but seem to live the sad life of us plebs trying to make our millions to put our feet up and never having to type out a message on a forum ever again?

JUGEARS - 30 Jun 2022 - 16:13:21 - 7518 of 7581
Beckers, I added a few more earlier just to be on the safe side,looks like a bit of end of quarter book squaring to me, also added more Aviva shares.

[fenners66] 03/7/2022 23:07

Yes Major league baseball in the UK is just months away......

oh hold on , that would make it Autumn, well maybe next year then........

[jugears] 03/7/2022 23:02

St what you have to put in to perspective is that when you get high house prices there will always be sellers that want more so are precisely really falling or are prices now retreating to normal levels & what is normal levels? Imo I dont think we have seen a housing boom anywhere near the size of say Australia,Ametica Japan,China, Newzealand etc, we are a small island, land is at a premium & build less house per population than we ever have dyor bit this country is fast heading for a chronic shortage of houses in the future IMO I am taking a massive gamble here waiting to invest at below a pound!

[jugears] 03/7/2022 22:05

How am I down 300k? The 200k bought at 98p cost me nothing as I sold half at 1.80 which nearly paid for the 100k shares I kept my overall holding is worth 5 times what collectively I have paid taking in to account dividends. I accept that the shares could be worth another £1 but I havent lost anything as I havent sold any.I am still in profit by 400k on my entire holding . . I dont think that's a bad profit in 13 years pal do you? Considering I havent had to trade in & out or do anything other than post on here. I think you forget that 70% of my holding was bought at 30-37p plus all the dividends You do like to twist my posts , You are starting to show how thick you are. I have said before that you cant loose money if you don't sell & the same with houses that's why I always hold for the long term.I have learnt a long time ago not to worry about the bits inbetween ,I have lost count how many times I have been told not to buy a certain share or not to invest in a recession, how glad I am not to have listened to there advise & having only lost money on two shares in nearly 50 years & at a minimum doubled my money all for doing f__k all. I dont think I am doing to badly really do you? I am not
& never will be a trader , but when Tw fell to 98 I new it was to good an opportunity to miss even though the world was going to die from Covid at the time ,so I suppose it was inevitable that the share price would fall, now we just have a bit of inflation & higher interest rates, not really the biggest worry in the world is it .DYOR but I am very happy with my Tw investment & the 500k I will be buying any time soon.

[sunshine today] 03/7/2022 21:48

1/3rd cut prices. !!!

Remember the USA is 4 to 6 months ahead of the U.K.

[sunshine today] 03/7/2022 21:47

Home Price Cuts, Rising Inventories Are Ominous Signs Of Top


BY TYLER DURDEN

SUNDAY, JUL 03, 2022 - 07:25 PM

The pandemic housing boom hit a peak and should start rolling over as rising inventory forces some home sellers to slash prices. The weight of soaring mortgage rates and increasing inventory are the possible markings of a top that has already led some sellers in major US cities to cut listing prices.

"The housing market is absolutely in need of a reset," George Ratiu, senior economist at Realtor.com, told Bloomberg.

Realtor.com's data showed almost a third of listings in June had price cuts in Austin, Phoenix, and Las Vegas metro areas. Price cuts are a growing national trend as higher rates triggered an affordability crisis, removing millions of new prospective home buyers.

[thelongandtheshortandthetall] 03/7/2022 20:02

Buywell.
Near me there were around 75 properties available on rightmove for most of last year.
It has recently gone up to 117. Growing each week.

Just an observation.