Taylor Wimpey Share Discussion Threads

[ftir1] 22/6/2022 10:36

We are in the biggest bubble in human history.

HB's (and others) will experience massive write downs.

Hold tight.

[tuftymatt] 22/6/2022 10:32

Yes I agree JUGEARS, no one is immune from this so while I will hold what I have across multiple UK companies I just won't add right now. I will watch for the turn though and like you then buy here as I do think this business has a positive future.

I was also a previous TW homeowner but when it was just W!!

[jugears] 22/6/2022 10:08

Tufty, you can guarantee all shares will be manipulated lower that I am very certain of! but there is a difference between what the markets think a company will do & what it actually does!
Martyn9, Same here, if anything orders are increasing, we are looking to increase our workforce by 15% over the next 12 months, There is certainly a lot more work about now than pre covid, although construction(schools, hospitals,care homes,doctors surgeries etc)orders are declining, housing is certainly more than making up the slack. The problem with this country is that we talk our way in to recession & then waste time number crunching instead of just getting on with it, we had years of decline whilst people worried about Brexit, when people held off buying houses, at the begging of 2020 it was looking like a record year for housing , then covid came & funnily enough it still was a record year & would have been without stamp duty holiday! know one on this board predicted covid or a war which is the sole reason we have now got inflation, if you lock the world up for a long period of time of course its going to go mad when its released, with world stocks at there lowest you only need modest demand to inflate prices, at the end of the day if the consumer is prepared to pay more then its there fault we are where we are!

[claret dragon] 22/6/2022 09:58

Banks are now getting a bit jittery about lending multiples.

[stewart64] 22/6/2022 09:52

Knockknock 07/08 crash in Wimps was a balance sheet problem.

The state of play now is 5 billion in inventories...land, houses in progress. 1 billion owed to contractors etc. on those inventories, Loans/ provisions etc. 1 billion, off set by one billion in the bank. ie. zero debt. It's probably the strongest balance sheet in the FTSE 100. Insolvency problems is as close to impossible as could be.

That 4 billion net asset position neatly comes to a price to book of one. ( ie. the business is priced at zero over assets).

[martyn9] 22/6/2022 09:35

We all know (or some on here apparently don't) why inflation is soaring, it's down to oil/gas prices and "not" a consumer led spiral.
Certainly not a financial meltdown relative to HB's as 2008,we are still supplying existing housing developments and nothing on the cards to say they are cutting back on new starts!!

[tuftymatt] 22/6/2022 09:31

When I say lower I am not saying to the lows I have seen posted on here either but do think circa £1 could be possible. The markets hate uncertainty and we are most certainly in that space right now.

[tuftymatt] 22/6/2022 09:29

To be honest I thought this bear market rally would have had more legs but Asia overnight, our own inflation news and the US futures have put an end to that.

I am sitting on my hands now as recent top ups in quality long term holds are sort of back to square one so I will wait on the side lines. The same goes for here as while 116 in the long term I think would be an ok entry point, it's going to go lower in my opinion based on the huge external pressures most companies face right now.

[jugears] 22/6/2022 09:22

I will be laughing, I have plenty of cash waiting to mop up at the bottom, the Lower they go the more I will make. At the moment to many people predicting what might or could happen, time to wait & see, I only invest for fun & not reliant on the income so it doesn't really matter to me ,all of my money is in old established uk household names & very unlikely to go bust, insidently I never regret any investment decisions I make.

[rwlly1] 22/6/2022 09:09

Sorry JUGEARS but i do not think you will be Lol this time round.

[essentialinvestor] 22/6/2022 09:07

Jug, as mentioned to you a few weeks back autumn may be the time to add here,
just a guessestimate but this is looking increasingly like a grinding bear market
with brief rallies sold off. Very different from the rapid bounce back seen in March 2020.

[knocknock] 22/6/2022 09:05

This is what TW done in 2007/8 a continuous buy back programme as the stock fell from over £5 ................. all the way to 4p intraday circa early March 2009. Be careful here.

[rwlly1] 22/6/2022 08:36

Sorry to rock your boat JUGGEARS, but if it was not for covid these would have been under a pound a long time ago. It is only the sheer amount of quontative easing low interest rates and the Chancellor adding his 400billion into the pot that stopped it from happening. Now it looks like the company are trying to prop the share price up themselves, if you want my advice you would sell into the rallies.

[fenners66] 22/6/2022 08:26

Cue : "don't take any notice of the CEO of one of the largest quoted building companies, when the man down the pub says different " comments.....

[ghhghh] 22/6/2022 08:00

7am this morning from Berkeley

London and South East housing market fundamentals

The UK housing market has navigated well through the recent domestic and global challenges, with sales and construction activity around pre-pandemic levels. The economic and operating environment remains volatile with inflation, labour and materials shortages, interest rates and regulatory costs of development all having the potential to impact supply and demand.

Against this economic backdrop, the fundamentals of Berkeley's core markets in London and the South East remain strong, most notably with the ongoing undersupply of housing. Based upon the Government's assessment of housing need:

-- London's housing need is 94,000 per year. Over the last three years, an average of 39,000 homes were delivered per year, an annual shortfall of 55,000 homes (58%).

-- The South East's housing need is 50,000 per year. Over the last three years an average of 41,000 homes were delivered per year, an annual shortfall of 9,000 homes (24%).

The current London Plan has a housing delivery target of 52,000, based on London's capacity to deliver homes. Even if this target were reached, this would still represent a shortfall of 42,000 homes (45%) relative to London's assessed housing need every year. This supply constraint in London looks set to continue with recent starts having remained below 17,000 per year for the last three calendar years (DLUHC Live Table 253a).

Interest rates are rising but remain at historically low levels and mortgage availability is strong with a competitive lender market and Government policy remaining supportive of mortgage lending. Affordability levels remain within historical parameters for those with the requisite deposit.

[buywell3] 22/6/2022 07:43

buywell wonders if the resident rampers here will still be ramping if this goes to 99p?

[jugears] 21/6/2022 23:39

Oh dont you worry I will get more than 2.64 TBF had it not been for covid thes would be 3 quid by now but I can wait, I have no control over manipulation, created by the what ifs & may be's I have seen these go up faster than they have come down, it's now just a waiting game, it's funny when these were pushing 50p no one believed me when I said these would reach my then target of 1.64 & the same when I said to 2.64,but I wasnt far wrong, I've seen these swings many many times before when markets over exaggerate what they think will happen very very rarely if ever do the markets get it right, the uk has survived much higher inflation & interest rates than this & survived trouble is your not old enough! to remember.
I didnt get it wrong when these hit 98p & I bought 200k when they shot back up to 1.80 ( as expected) &, you morons were predicting 30p ,I don't think I got it wrong when I sold half at £1.80 either which meant the other 100k were virtually free! That brings in 9k a year whatever the share price, & when these reach the bottom I will do the same again, double my money & sell half,I think my current average is now less than what I originally paid for them which was 30-37p take in to account the 97p in dividends and we are probably looking at an average price between 10 & 20 not bad as I have added some at different times, & prices as well. how well have you done?

[beckers2008] 21/6/2022 23:32

Trolls always come out when the price is weak, Fact.
And disappear when the price goes against them. Fact.
For those not experienced in market activity, if you look closely you will see.

IMO, Who cares what they have to say because...
They are idiot's, just idiot's lol!

[wfl1970] 21/6/2022 21:56

"They truly are idiot's who have been calling it wrong for over two years, lol, just lol!"

The only one getting it wrong for two years is a regular poster...ever since the share price didn't reach a £2.64 target!!

[jugears] 21/6/2022 21:07

Bloody predictive text lol
My properties are bringing in more than satisfactory profits so cant understand why they are not for others , of course if you are in it for government incentives only , then again more fool you, if you cant make a business pay you shouldn't be running it & bloody hell lol who would genuinely believe some of the half wits on here, how can that be a comparison as to what the rest of the uk property investors are doing? It can't be clarified can it as we are all just imaginary people on here completely identity less, I could be the ceo of Tw for all anyone one here knows.
Unless you have to why would you sell appreciating assets, look how many housing slumps we have had in the last 50 years & how much houses have increasef by afterwards, all.a slump.will create is less houses on the market when things pick up leading to steeper price increases later on, where do you think house price will be in 10-12 years from now, I would like to say up 50% but in reality they will double, because years of under building will assure that.how people will afford that I don't know but house prices only ever go one way & despite what you say history does repeat itself, it doesn't matter to me if I bought shares at 1.50, 1.30 or 1.20 or I get some more for 75p because long term these will rocket, You dont loose if you dont sell &.I'm never selling & why would I, I don't need the money for anything I have enough in cash to last me 50 years,probably going to.put these in trust for my grand kids so that they have a guaranteed income for the rest of their lives.

[sikhthetech] 21/6/2022 20:53

Jugears
"I havent seen any black for sale anywhere", " my point was why would they sell when rents are at an all time high unless they have to due to high debt, you assumption seems to be that all property investor are in debt"

There you go again, making assumptions...
The reality and your opinions are poles apart..


Just because you're blind to what is happening in the housing market, you're assuming others aren't aware.

I've said previously the environment for btl investors is less favourable and so they're likely to sell. They were stopped from evicting tenants due to repossession ban but that ban has now lifted. Nothing to do with whether they are in debt.

In fact 25G and Beckers on here said they would sell their rented property if they felt it was right.


Keep up at the back
;-)

[sunshine today] 21/6/2022 20:14

Thants why the chart says it all.