Taylor Wimpey Share Discussion Threads

[jugears] 20/6/2022 18:38

I would agree with that!
Kingspan sell more to large commercial builders (the biggest section of the construction industry) where work is currently declining, not housing!
Ess, don't for get to mention that the 1 billion debt was nothing to do with a housing slump &was actually making profits & reducing debt as the financial crisis hit, within a few years that debt was paid & we were receiving exceptional dividends.
Fenner, Stobart are now owned by Cullina.
Ftir, extremely busy at the moment not enough hours in the day.

[sunshine today] 20/6/2022 18:17

EssentialInvestor20 Jun '22 - 17:35 - 7221 of 7223

TW went in to the GFC with circa £1 BN in net debt, their net cash is now near £1 BN.

Perhaps some are looking at the TW GFC lows when the business was effectively priced
for bankruptcy at one point. Different circumstances now.


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One Billion cash being eroded by inflation at 12% a year.

Inventories of £5BN

Thus if house prices come off just 20% the game is up.

The majority of lenders like to use a 60% valuation for a safe mortgage, a 40% drop in house prices sees TW Bust.

I would go so far and say a 30% fall would have the same result over a slightly longer timeframe

[fenners66] 20/6/2022 17:54

You could almost feel sorry for these bears , with the share price at 180 just a few months ago , they arrive here spouting the end of the world with the share price already down 33%

Not surprised porch added a brexit comment - we were all well aware as the govt told us before the brexit vote that it would lead to higher taxes in an emergency budget the next day, mass unemployment and the end of the world ....

Given that intimate knowledge ,how come they arrive here as captain hindsight ?

If you are going to be bearish on a stock it counts if you predict (if you can ) before the share price moves....

Say for example Stobart paying a large dividend with no profitable business 5 years or so ago...
some called it for what it was then , unsustainable and there could be many a slip before profitability

A name change and a share price about 97% down since then.

[essentialinvestor] 20/6/2022 17:35

TW went in to the GFC with circa £1 BN in net debt, their net cash is now near £1 BN.

Perhaps some are looking at the TW GFC lows when the business was effectively priced
for bankruptcy at one point. Different circumstances now.

[ghhghh] 20/6/2022 17:28

I’ve bought more, looks overdone.

This caused the sector sell off. Kingspan - insulation providers

We have seen the mood in most end markets deteriorate over the last two months with order intake volume down significantly on the May and June period in 2021 although ahead versus the same period in 2019. Our global backlog of orders on hand in Insulated Panels is down 2% in volume at the end of May having been 19% ahead at the end of March.

The point that the bears here repeatedly fail to address is

HOW MUCH BAD NEWS IS ALREADY FACTORED IN?

[ftir1] 20/6/2022 16:59

Bulls quite today, not their usual "I've just added a few" comments.Is the penny finally dropping?I doubt it.

[sunshine today] 20/6/2022 16:15

Want you require is super fast growth ,cash on the books , no debt, and government contracts.

What you have here is a toxic time bomb.

When will

Profits stop falling

Profits disappear

Losses

Arriving at a valuation around 10% - 12% of todays valuation ( after shareholders have been approached for more cash.

Basically your product is between 50% and 80% overpriced

[porsche1945] 20/6/2022 16:09

Persimmon really getting hammered, these less so but cant see how they stay above a quid, assumption heavy dividend cuts I think. Best place for income now probably insurers, not banks, likes of lloyds will get wiped out along with builders once meltdown starts, got a feeling this government now really has been “ found out “. Brexit nightmare, endless political mess, fat useless boris, covid, mad money printing, inflation, parabolic U.K. taxes amongst the highest in the world, brain dead BOE, fuel costs….I cant see how the UK swerves a full on depression, worse than 08, they actually cut rates to zero then, now they have to put them up. These stupid help to buy schemes have distorted markets and that will unwind with a vengeance. Cash is king I think even with inflation.

[essentialinvestor] 20/6/2022 16:05

Some of the bearish comments here are inane, that being said we are heading for
recession or something close.

The post covid peak on TW over £1.90 a share, so a lot of damage is already done
to price and sector share prices are well ahead of weaker fundamentals likely still to come.

[gbh2] 20/6/2022 14:16

The naysayers must be wetting themselves with excitement at today's drop :)

[sunshine today] 20/6/2022 13:42

So, rates keep going up in the USA.

U.K. HAS to follow , if you don’t you import inflation and have a run on your currency.

Those bulls here need to look at the big picture.

Plus the feel good factor has run out of steam

The rich who were piling into property have just seen their share portfolio fall 25% bonds and crypto are also wiping out millions of potential buyers.

Required deposits are on the move up.

[stewart64] 20/6/2022 12:04

Re. the " new house Premium". As per my previous post, it has largely been eroded. In the mad Summer of 21 the inverse was the case. Secondhand had the whip hand over a completion on an unbuilt property up to a year hence. They were ready to go. New has probably just about caught up since.ie. like for like parity.

[sikhthetech] 20/6/2022 11:41

Tufty,
Re asking prices. During a crash,they fall the further than actual prices..


Watch the supply increase and the demand decrease..

It's all falling into place as expected..


sikhthetech - 26 Apr 2022 - 12:30:23 -

Re Rightmove data. Estate agents report asking prices, THEIR OWN prices... When a housing market crashes asking prices fall further than average. As new home prices command a premium, they fall more as they become more in line with existing homes.

More relevant is actual sold prices, data which lags.

Affordability problems have increased from THIS month onwards and there's no govn support anymore. Repossessions, homeowners in severe mortgage debt trends to watch..

[tuftymatt] 20/6/2022 11:38

Busy morning for me and I missed 116. Will wait for a repeat of that price as I think it's worth it as an entry point.

Anyone on here who is in this game had any dealings with nhouse?

[stewart64] 20/6/2022 11:30

Jugears...fair enough. I am positive on sales.A developer I know released a house type at 285k ( August 21) New phase sane house/ inferior position ( June 22) 340k..plus 19%. You don't do that if you are struggling.

In 21 new was too cheap, and secondhand commanded a premium. ( they were built and ready to go in an overheated Market.

It will be the underpriced 21 releases that show in the 22 accounts, however!

[jugears] 20/6/2022 11:18

25, it depends what quantity you are buying in, the large hb's pay far less than the average small builder, suppliers profit from quantity its better to make 1% on one single order for 1 million pounds than to make 7.5% on a thousand orders worth 1 million pounds due to the amount of delivery & admin costs. for instance if one of the large hb's place an order for one of our products to be supplied to a large development they will pay anything upwards of 50% less than a one off order.

[25guilderbag] 20/6/2022 11:13

Kingspan are increasing prices, as are other insulation manufacturers. It's relentless, June increase was over 10%, with a further 10% increase pencilled in for July. Knauf is going up by an astounding 35%, this is on top of recent increases. SIG delivery charges increasing 6% to cover fuel costs .Only material I see holding steady is timber.

[jugears] 20/6/2022 11:03

stew, theirs no shortage on any sites we are on,Tw/Bdev/Psn ,maybe because like us our customers are good a planning head unlike some companies that are last minute .com! We as a company have not experienced any supply issues since September except for birch faced plywood which we use little of.
St, building materials can & will fall, they went up because the world shut down production & then struggled to bring production back in to line with demand, again caused by last minute .com expectations, 12 months ago suppliers would not budge on prices & didn't even really want orders as they were to busy, we didn't see or get a call from any supplier for 18 months, but my how things have changed in the last few months, we are now getting calls on a daily basis & supplier are much happier negotiating prices.

[roguetraderuk] 20/6/2022 11:03

rightmove dont actually lose out when house prices fall given the payment structure. where they lose out is in deep recessions when a signifcant number of agents go bust. so while they will have a slight bias to upside, its not as bad as pure estate agents. so i think their views are worth a read always.
sun, its all falling off a cliff price wise. and the unregistered are already being kicked off the building sites.

[roguetraderuk] 20/6/2022 11:00

EI, of the small ones i like redrow, but yes seems they will need to overshoot to downside as the negative headlines are only just beginning even if historically valuations are pretty much at or close to shallow recessionary levels. the ones that havent see their vaccine "gaps" filled might see it happen. that doesnt have to be the low, the mkt can remain grumpy, but assuming they start to cut rates early next year into substantially dropping cpi, then i dont think youll be disappointed for too long.

[rwlly1] 20/6/2022 10:54

fenners66 Estate agents are not the right people to ask about house price direction, they are always going to look on the bright side. Saying they are going to go into freefall would frighten away most prospective buyers.