Taylor Wimpey Share Discussion Threads

[sunshine today] 19/6/2022 17:56

1845 - 1911 population growth 35M to 46M

[sunshine today] 19/6/2022 17:53

Average house prices fell by 23% between 1845 and 1911.

That’s a lifetime

[sunshine today] 19/6/2022 17:47

Incorrect check out flat house prices after the war until 1963.

[jugears] 19/6/2022 17:43

St,not everyone buys a house for an investment, some actually buy for their for ever home, if you buy a home for the long term then whatever happens you are always going to make a profit that is guaranteed, no house will ever loose money long term, if the house that you are selling drops by 15% then so will the house you are buying , so your not loosing out.
Its a good job Tw haven't got debts, cant see land prices falling to little left to build on building land prices are only going one way & that is up long term.

[fenners66] 19/6/2022 17:16

"big headache for builders who have paid top dollar for their land banks"

Hey get with the 21st century
You know that any write down of a land bank is a non-cash cost ?
So QED it does not matter in the 21st century.

Anything that can be "adjusted" in the accounts figures is not really there and should be ignored....

OK it is a gripe of mine that all figures are shown as adjusted these days - but it would be non-cash cost

Further population and therefore demand is still rising but this island does not get any bigger so hard to see a big fall in land....

[sunshine today] 19/6/2022 15:30

From the PSN BB

KoP20218 Jun '22 - 23:00 - 2765 of 2765

If house prices do tank......due to presumably interest rate hikes....it becomes a big headache for builders who have paid top dollar for their land banks and if they have debt... it all adds to the head winds....

[sunshine today] 19/6/2022 15:27

Finally when house prices start to fall , no one wants to spend 15% on transaction and moving costs.

Do they ?

[sunshine today] 19/6/2022 15:25

The questions you have to ask.

Will TW increase EPS and profits each of the next 3 years.

Will TW have to take massive hits on work in progress and land bank.

Will mortgage lending dry up , requiring higher deposits

Will professional property valuations slump.

Will swathes of the general public struggle with personal debt

Will world events force 25% plus interest rates to protect the pound.

Will general confidence collapse

Will house prices fall for each of the next ten years as they revert to 3 times average income
Will a whole generation shy away from home ownership after being crushed and made homeless.

Will the average guy in the street throw in the towel and default.

[sunshine today] 19/6/2022 15:06

The clever ones invest low and sell high.

Buying today at the top of the cycle is for idiots.

The share price graph says it all.

Remember, we have not even had the first repros yet.

This time next year, property investors will have joined the list of those getting smashed today.

That list so far is

Bondholders
Crypto investors
Shareholders in 90% of companies

[jugears] 19/6/2022 14:59

Sometimes being to clever in life doesn't pay off, Having common sense is extremely useful for investing, despite all that is going on people will always want to move house, house sales may slow for a while but this will just create even bigger demand in the future, Unfortunately we need a slow down to bring the cost of building down.
tufftymatt, it takes a longtime to be comfortable in life but it is doable, I was never one for expensive cars or big houses ,my plan from an early age was to invest in assets that produced an income & then buy the luxury items later in life but now I can afford them I don't want them.

[mercedes] 19/6/2022 11:00

Well Everyone
Thank you all so much for your comments.
Seems like the longest period of civility I have ever seen on this board! long may it last.
I went self employed in 1979 because I was sick of working for others.Long hours and making nothing for myself, next many years working even harder and longer, but still making little.........Then I went into property development and set myself a target of making a million in ten years, it actually took me six years.I have been retired for over 20 years, doing the odd development in the UK along the way from my home in Spain.
Due to instructions from my wife we have been back in UK since just prior to the start of Covid. In process of selling up in Spain, they were great years, but its good to be back in uk, must be an age thing!
I have never been, what I would classify as intelligent, but have been blessed with something far better, common sense and determination and good health, that really is all you need to fulfil your dreams.

[tuftymatt] 19/6/2022 08:56

Thanks spawny100, yes I guess so but some really bad ones too when it comes to money!!

I agree with jugears that this is a marathon not a sprint and plays out from the moment you start making your own investment decisions from earnings right up until the day you die.

I am 51 but think about Warren Buffett who is 40 years older. At 55 my hope is I can then be more selective in how I spend my working days but continue to make money. By the sounds of it jugears has done just that with 80% of what he has coming in the past 15 years which just guessing means he would of been around 50 then.

If you play this game in an ok way then the compounding effects should reward later in life meaning you can slow down / make choices but not stop.

[jugears] 19/6/2022 08:39

Sawny, invest for the long term a bit at a time when & as you can & reinvest your dividends so that your assets grow but never invest money you will need. It doesn't matter when you invest or start saving money, despite being in business for nearly 50 years, 80 percent of my wealth has been created since the financial crisis, buying cheap investments & property with cash that I had saved.
Rwlly1, considering the economy is booming & the price of petrol I would expect that tax receipts will be higher than they have ever been over the next few years.

[spawny100] 19/6/2022 07:32

Well done tufty matt and jugears. You've clearly made some decent decisions in life! I'm still dreaming of financial freedom but some way to go yet!

[rwlly1] 19/6/2022 04:06

JUGEARS In the 70s there was nowhere near the level of dept that we have got now. We also used to be concerned about the balance of payments, always negative for a long time now. We had the ability as a country to work our way out of the mess we were in, not to sure this time round.

[jugears] 18/6/2022 23:30

I have more than 500k in Tw the largest part of this I bought at between 30 & 37p & i never invest less than 20k in each new stock, having recently sold my company my life is now completely debt free with assets divided between commercial property, land houses, investments & cash,I also own half a transport company that is ran by family members & now work full time for the company that took me over, not bad considering my familly business was nearly bankrupt when I took over, I have never taken things for granted & worked long hours all my life, finding rational solutions to problems & taking advantage of every down turn buying cheap property & shares but also investing in new machinery, we bought our first CNC machine on the eve of the financial crisis costing 100k over 4 years, suddenly seeing a down turn in orders we changed products & found new customers within a year we were adding another machine, when I sold the company we had 8 & currently the business is working at full capacity with orders stretching to 2024, watching the summer of 76 makes you realise just how good things are compared to then, even I had forgotten just how bad it was with inflation running at 16%! I think a lot of investors her have never experienced a down turn, high interest rates & inflation? It may seem bad but the world & economies recover & I will be making full advantage of that.

[tuftymatt] 18/6/2022 22:39

mercedes, that's a good point you make and a modest amount for me right now would be £5k. Good work Spawny100 with your ISA over the past 5 years 👍🏻

I have been in and out of the markets since 2000 and took a big lump out of it in 2017 to move house. Took on a small mortgage again too then having cleared my first after 10 years. Due to a business exit I have cleared the small mortgage recently and am now salary sacrificing in a big way to boost my workplace pension while I continue to work. The remaining cash from the sell is being drip feed into the markets excluding my emergency fund which is in cash / premium bonds.

I currently hold 24 UK dividend paying companies as well as VUSA which I have had for years and am trying to get to 55 when I can then live off the above.

I have day traded in the past with reasonable success but stopped in late 2006 due to a work promotion.

[jugears] 18/6/2022 20:02

I dont invest more than I can afford, some people buy expensive cars or luxury yachts to show off there wealth I just buy a few shares,land houses & industrial units.I managed quite well with rates at 16%
Putting things into perspective, in 1976 not only did we the longest heatwave for 300years but we had to contend with meat prices increasing by 25%, income tax was 35% & petrol hit record prices & from memory interest rates were substantially higher than now & here we are worrying because the economy is booming & we have a bit of inflation. Lol

[rwlly1] 18/6/2022 19:12

Sunshine, sounds as if you have taken a hit with crypto.

[sunshine today] 18/6/2022 18:41

“Sunshine if rates ever got to 16.5% again halve of the population would be insolvent, along with the treasury”


Yep, what’s news.?

When the worlds population does not trust paper money that’s the result.

It’s already the case in Turkey, and South America.

[rwlly1] 18/6/2022 18:36

Crypto meltdown continues, just shows what happens to anything that gets overvalued, the higher it rises the further it has to fall. Jug you are doing the right thing by sitting on cash at the moment Sunshine if rates ever got to 16.25% again halve of the population would be insolvent, along with the treasury.

[spawny100] 18/6/2022 18:18

Always hard to know who tells the truth Mercedes on these forums. I suspect there are many liars who exaggerate massively. I regard myself as fairly small fry. I've built up my ISA to around £180k over a few years from a relatively modest investment of about £40k from 2017. I sold quite a lot a month or so back and am sitting with £85k cash in the ISA which is what I need to pay off my 5 years fixed rate mortgage in full in 3 years time. Having that buffer gives me some comfort in markets like these! I may drip feed it in over the next few months depending what happens to the markets. Always interested to hear others investing background too.

[mercedes] 18/6/2022 18:06

Jug
Exactly what I have been doing for the last few months.Opportunity's will abound for the brave soon enough.
On this board people refer to "modest amount, small amounts" and you refer to "large" investment! I guess one persons large is another's small or modest etc.
I would really be interested to see actual amounts to gauge where I stand in all this?

[jugears] 18/6/2022 17:05

Can you imagine getting a fixed bond investment at that for 3 years, I've just cancelled all of my current bonds as would rather have money sitting in a none interest account than tie it up on low interest rate investments, as I expect to be getting a much better rate than the current 2.75% by September. It also leaves me in a good position to take full advantage should we have another manipulated! stock market crash.

[sunshine today] 18/6/2022 16:41

No higher than last time 16.25%