Taylor Wimpey Share Discussion Threads

[mano300] 20/1/2021 22:51

No one will have money to purchase new homes! This share will hit Rock bottom

[imastu pidgitaswell] 20/1/2021 13:37

Share price seems to have downed tools. Bit annoying...

[sikhthetech] 19/1/2021 15:59

After pressure from HBs, the current Help to Buy scheme has been extended by a month.
HBs must be concerned about buyers cancelling. Funny that.



The new Help to Buy scheme which comes into effect from 1st April is only for 1st time buyers and has regional price caps.


Homes England extends Help to Buy deadline after pressure from builders

"Homes England, the programme’s administrator, has now confirmed that those using the scheme now have until up to 31 March to achieve practical completion of their purchase to ensure that developments delayed by the COVID-19 pandemic can be completed. The original date was the 28 February."

"Under the new programme, which is set to end in 2023, purchases will have regional price limits with homebuyers only allowed to secure loans for properties 1.5 times higher than the average price for a first-time home for a given region."

[millwallfan] 18/1/2021 20:31

The government have done more policy u turns than I had hot dinners last year so nothing is impossible. However, in terms of extended or new incentives I think it substantially now depends solely on just 2 issues; how quickly new infections and deaths drop significantly ( with r > 1) AND the speed of roll-out and related assessed protection level of the vaccine.

[sikhthetech] 18/1/2021 14:50

The petition to extend Stamp Duty hol has received over 100k signatures and so will be debated in Parliament.

Just goes to show how many people think an extension is needed. ;-)

[imastu pidgitaswell] 18/1/2021 08:26

Yes, saw that. Initially extending the stamp duty holiday (not good for certain people's blood pressure...) but combined with a plan to replace Council tax and stamp duty with an overall property tax - percentage of property value, with 0.48% suggested.

All sorts of what-ifs in that, and it's kite-flying as always, but I have to say, ignoring how it impacts me, there is more logic to it than the current patched up property tax regime with all its anomalies. But the middle class readers of The Times don't agree...

[clarky5150] 18/1/2021 08:08

talk this week of stamp duty abolition

[imastu pidgitaswell] 15/1/2021 17:48

Yep, regretting it.

Have a nice weekend.

[sikhthetech] 15/1/2021 16:50

Imastu.

No not contradicting myself.

Cancellations normalised during Q4.

The question is how many buyers who have reserved on the back of Stamp Duty hol or Help to Buy will cancel if they believe they will miss the deadline.

According to this article, about 1/3 will cancel, so I expect cancellations to be higher than normal during this qtr, Q1 and Q2.

"Almost a third of home buyers would abandon their purchase if they missed the 31 March deadline for taking advantage of the Government's stamp duty holiday, according to a new survey.

The survey asked 1,000 people who were currently in the process of buying a home whether they would continue with their purchase if the sale did not complete before the deadline.

Of those, 31 per cent said they would not. The question was asked by the Guild of Property Professionals. "




Secondly, if SD hol was insignificant then why the desperation to persuade the govn to extend it.




"Property experts have warned up to a third of house sales could collapse if the Chancellor does not extend the stamp duty holiday period.

The pressure intensified last month when a group of Conservative Party MPs launched a campaign calling for the move to be permanently imposed in order to stimulate economic growth.

The Property Research Group argued the hugely unpopular stamp duty tax “hinders aspiration” and discourages people from moving home."

[sikhthetech] 15/1/2021 14:57

Obviously, housing market will still continue (a point I have previously mentioned) after Stamp Duty Hol ends.

But you miss the point.

With Stamp Duty hol. It's resulted in increased buying and therefore, house prices.

The question is how many customers will cancel if they miss the SD hol or H2B deadlines. It's not how many are reserving homes.



TW stated yesterday cancellations were above normal levels, at 20% - 1/5 cancelling is a huge amount. And that's without the above govn schemes ending. That's without furlough ending.


"Total UK home completions (including joint ventures) decreased by c.39% to 9,609 in 2020, due primarily to the impact on production capacity during the second quarter shutdown (2019: 15,719), and we delivered 1,904 affordable homes (2019: 3,548), including joint ventures, equating to 20% of total completions (2019: 23%). Our net private reservation rate for 2020 was 0.76 homes per outlet per week (2019: 0.96). Cancellation rates for the full year were above normal levels at 20% (2019: 15%), but normalised in the final quarter, at 16%"




If Stamp Duty hol ending is not going to impact then why are property experts urging the govn to extend it?




and regarding Help to Buy for 2nd homes. With it ending, it's likely to lead to fewer investors. If the govn gives you upto 40% interest free loan then that's a huge incentive to buy an investment property. It's pretty basic investment strategy.

[jugears] 15/1/2021 11:06

imatsu, Dangle a free carrot & everyone wants some whether they need it or not,a bit like help to buy, If people want to move & buy houses they will regardless of whats freebies are on offer!

[imastu pidgitaswell] 15/1/2021 08:50

Thousands of people are reserving homes that are not expected to exchange before the stamp duty holiday expires, Taylor Wimpey said yesterday.

In remarks that further highlight the strength of the property market, the housebuilder said that its sales rate had continued to rise at the end of last year and remained strong this month.

Home sales are taking about six months to complete, so these purchasers are not set to benefit from the stamp duty holiday, which is due to end on March 31 and saves purchasers up to £15,000...blah blah

[imastu pidgitaswell] 14/1/2021 18:42

A lot depends on your timeframe.

I do like a chart, you know:


free stock charts from uk.advfn.com




You could argue that BDEV has continued to expand on its valuation increase over Taylor Wimpey over a three year period - it and PSN are the leaders, TW. is straggling with CRST further behind.

But note how TW. has caught up PSN somewhat over the last few months, after diverging around the time of the rights issue - but no-one saw that coming, did they? 😎



free stock charts from uk.advfn.com

[salver2] 14/1/2021 17:35

Barratt for the last few years was always better value from a price to net asset value basis and the gap has closed -why TaylorWimpey had a slightly higher rating I do not know - I hold a lot of Barratt shares and I’m not extolling the virtues of one over the other - I feel they are both very well run housebuilders.The cheapest housebuilders is Crest Nicholson orVistry on an asset basis but Crest Nicholson have always had poor management although the team put in place in the last year seems to be making big improvements

[omg48] 14/1/2021 15:43

Last time Barratts share price was 695p TW. was near 200p

[omg48] 14/1/2021 15:38

Any opinions on why Barratts has continued a steady rise from last November and TW seem to stall and fall back after each rise?

[mo123] 14/1/2021 15:25

Pinched this off the iii site for those who haven't seen it.

Taylor Wimpey has already embarked on its buying spree after disclosing in a trading update that it had agreed terms on £1.3 billion of land comprising 93 sites and 22,600 plots. This is significantly ahead of its normal rate and according to chief executive Pete Redfern represents high-quality land available at attractive margins.

Some of the money for the purchases was raised from shareholders in the summer, when conditions in the housebuilding sector were far from certain. Redfern has been encouraged by the ongoing resilience of the UK housing market since then, after ending 2020 with an order book more than 23% higher than a year earlier at £2.7 billion.

As well as the land buying, Taylor expects to resume dividend payments alongside annual results in early March and is also weighing the possibility of a special dividend the following year.

Shares rose 3.65p to 164.90p but UBS believes the FTSE 100 stock has the potential to reach 210p. The bank's forecasts include a 2020 dividend of 3.8p and £100 million special dividend.

[imastu pidgitaswell] 14/1/2021 15:01

sikh is quite right - the final dividend was £125m or (then) 3.8p per share:

Dividends

Subject to shareholder approval at the AGM scheduled for 23 April 2020, the 2019 final ordinary dividend of 3.80 pence per share will be paid on 15 May 2020 to shareholders on the register at the close of business on 3 April 2020 (2018 final dividend: 3.80 pence per share).



I was too quick to just grab the paragraph 'dividends' rather than 'final dividend'. The point about dilution, i.e. 3,631m rather than 3,276m still stands (I think),which would make it diluted to 3.4p or thereabouts.

The more interesting point is why sikh, as he does in fact appear to read the financial statements, has hitherto been incapable of making reference to them or indeed any financial quantification about the company in his posts.

New year, new approach?

[gbh2] 14/1/2021 14:39

Billy, if/when they launch a Financial Diary for the year we may see some dates for ex and pay.



Keep an eye on the website.

This company is pretty good at divi speculation

[sikhthetech] 14/1/2021 14:32

They will only announce the divi dates once they confirm the divi is being paid. It's normal practice. Currently, they EXPECT to declare one with the results.

[billy5] 14/1/2021 14:25

Thanks for the info, will sit tight and try and pick up a few more if there is a dip.

Cheers.