Taylor Wimpey Share Discussion Threads

[imastu pidgitaswell] 18/11/2020 16:54

Brilliant! :-)

[gbh2] 18/11/2020 16:51

It is, gained during my martial arts days :)

[imastu pidgitaswell] 18/11/2020 16:16

gbh - that's not grievious bodily harm (mark 2) is it? 😮

Good attitude...

[jugears] 18/11/2020 15:24

gbh2, at the moment almost any share will certainly make money long term , but in normal circumstance buying good quality share rarely fail to bring good returns long term, I have only lost money on 2 shares in 40 years, I don't set a time limit just wait, I bough Chloride years a go for 9 or 10 p & it didn't do anything for years , then got taken over & I made a packet, being a long term investor prevents me from making rash decisions & selling to soon which a lot of people seem to do IMO I am also to tight to loose money If I had to wait 40 years to get a return then I would wait.

[gbh2] 18/11/2020 15:22

Nothing wrong with being 75 as long as your brain hasn't vegetated.

[gbh2] 18/11/2020 15:20

"Buy a share, any share & sit on it for a few years"

Not any share Jugs, I lost a good few thousand quid following that advice, when I first started at this game!

[tlobs2] 18/11/2020 15:08

I see the grumpy 75year old porker has been on here again with even more delusions of grandeur.

Remarkable.

[cupra kid] 18/11/2020 15:08

Yes great move again today and looking very strong indeed. It's always prudent to think that we may have a pullback, but I don't think it will be huge if and when it comes. Onwards and upwards

[hernando2] 18/11/2020 15:07

Not long till my investment will have doubled ...

[sikhthetech] 18/11/2020 15:07

Jug,
"Loads more mortgages than a few months ago"

Really. Vunerable borrowers and FTB at most risk. Are you saying the FCA are wrong re their warning??? Not only are you claiming the HBs are wrong but now you're claiming the FCA are wrong as well. Would you like to inform the FCA that they are wrong and you are right?



Vulnerable borrowers and first-timers most at risk from Covid-hit mortgage market – FCA Insight


"Vulnerable borrowers, first-time buyers and those with lower incomes and savings are most likely to be detrimentally affected by coronavirus-related impacts on the mortgage market."

"The research found clear access to the mortgage market had been reduced for first-time buyers and those with limited savings, and further effects of the pandemic could hit vulnerable people."

[imastu pidgitaswell] 18/11/2020 15:03

2795 - Agreed, apologies, and no more.

Dunno. The scaredy-cat in me would expect a pullback after that rise, at some point. But here? Or after another leg up? The fundamentals(!), at around 12 times earnings for 2021 (£500m PAT, 6,000 market cap) are OK - but obviously not as cheap as they were. Sentiment is strong, but as we know, that can change quickly.

My view is (and has been transacted) to chicken out, and sell some but keep some. On this, anyway. Would quite like a pullback, where I would add back recent sales, but it will be what it will be.


Jugs, you posted since the above. I do what I do, on this and other shares, because it works. In a wider market that has gone nowhere for 20 years (where was the FTSE 20 years ago? What has TW.'s share price done in 20 years?) it is clear to me that buy and hold regardless does not work as well. Even a couple of months ago on this, we went from 98 to 120 and back down to 104 before heading above 120 again with the trading statement. I just find it better (for me) to take profits regularly and stick them (and the proceeds) either in other things (see a few posts ago - SAGA and the metals) or back in these if they come back down. Each to their own, and there is more than one way to do it successfully. And enjoyably.

[jugears] 18/11/2020 15:03

imastu, Buy a share, any share & sit on it for a few years, obviously some are now less attractive than a few months ago but still good rewards for those that wait, I really can't be doing with hopping in & out, my original investment here has increased 500% & the ones I bought at 98p are up nearly 70% & have a lot further to go, Confidence is returning to the markets & it is now very unlikely we will see the low Prices we have seen this year, I'm afraid we will need to wait for the next world disaster to see that,I made a substantial amount of money buying shares in the financial crisis & holding long term, I have recently bought shares in around 20 companies all starting to look very healthy indeed, Brexit & covid have bought a once in a lifetime opportunity to purchase very cheap & very oversold shares, my investment portfolio has never looked so good & have no plans to sell any shares for the next few years as I see huge growth for the uk economy once we finally leave the EU & even bigger returns on shares than the financial crisis, as for Tw what is not to like here, Order book forward sold past the ending of stamp duty holiday& h2b ending on second homes, Loads more mortgages than a few months ago, & a country crying out for new homes, get past Brexit next year & these will be heading for £3.

[porsche1945] 18/11/2020 15:01

Oh yes, just luvin it, I’m too good, 70 pc profit coming up, Tesla last night....boohoo up from 2.42 @ entry....what to do with all the money hahahaha

[lostuser] 18/11/2020 14:55

omg48, agreed. Really don't understand why they give them a response. It's probably a bot anyway.

More interested in whether anyone thinks this will breakout above 165 in the next few days or drop back to 145ish

[sikhthetech] 18/11/2020 14:49

Good trading opportunity, AS EXPECTED.
Glad Imastu and Jug took the opportunity at the 100p I mentioned, based on events. ;-) lol

Clearly the UBS target was a red herring by Imastu, to help with his sells today.

You wouldn't want to be heavily invested given the deadlines for Stamp Duty hol, Help to Buy. Even if you will never admit it. ;-)

[imastu pidgitaswell] 18/11/2020 14:39

sikhthetech18 Nov '20 - 13:52 - 2792 of 2793 (Filtered)

I tried. I shouldn't have, but I wanted to see if anything had changed with the 65% rise in the price. I don't know why, just curiosity. But that curiosity is sated. One of the more pointless episodes, and my fault for trying.

Anyway, back to TW.

One issue is what to do after a 65% rise. Obviously as I have said, I have sold some. A question is how many to hold on to, now they are in substantial profit. Competing sectors and companies are a factor - have put some into precious metal miners, FRES and POLY, neither of which have done much, nor a smaller amount in CEY and SRB. Yet. Put some (more than I first planned) into SAGA, at 200 and more at 185. Now notably higher, but really am planning to hold for a lot more, more like 1500+ (100p in old money). Not too much more tempts me right now - I have some HSBA, HL. and HTG for the first time - something of a recovery play (I like companies beginning with H). And still almost everything I ever had in dear old COST, including some from 70p and a lot more at 40p and 32p - that is a share which I cannot fathom, and believe it should be up at 150+ within 24 months.

Missed out on lots, including the likes of LGEN, GLEN, DTY, VLX even DLAR which have carried on up since I last sold them. Wondering if anyone minds sharing thoughts of other possibilities than just TW. as a I think more than just I have reduced here. Of course, if it pulls back, I will likely add more.

[tlobs2] 18/11/2020 14:01

Very strong here again today.

[sikhthetech] 18/11/2020 13:52

Imastu,

lol..
HBs/Estate Agents/Brokers have all given updates, yet you don't comment on the fundamentals.

YOU moaned about the lack of fundamental/newsflow posts, yet you don't post any yourself nor are interested in the views of posters who claim are not filtered. No sane person would be interested in views from a person they have filtered. Look forward to your fundamentals and discussion with Jug/gbh. Unless you are a hypocrite. ;-)

I've posted my opinions on HBs, Help to Buy, Stamp Duty hol, furlough, unemployment. Those are very revelant to HBs. HBs, Estate Agents and brokers themselves have posted similar views.

Help to Buy for 2nd homes ends 31st March, 4 months away.
Stamp Duty hol ends 31st March, 4 months away.

Crucially, given the avg time from initial instructions to completion, deadlines for these schemes are around now.

What is your view on these schemes and their impact on HBs, Imastu? Jug claims they will have no impact as HBs don't need them.



"A bullish note from UBS argued the sector “offers an attractive upside” after a challenging first half which temporarily paralysed supply and demand.

Activity levels are normalising across the board, the Swiss bank told clients. After the lockdown there had been evidence of demand levels improving and house prices remaining stable, it said.

Its analysts acknowledged that the broader economic context remained tough but highlighted “positive fundamentals” including low interest rates shoring up affordability and government support for housing such as the Help to Buy scheme and stamp duty holiday."



Everyone should read the company/sector newsflow and form their own opinion

[imastu pidgitaswell] 18/11/2020 13:42

Ah, I know. It's back to the filter, and more fool me for looking. I just wanted to see how he would explain his previous witterings given the 60% rise. But if you just defy logic and ignore inconvenient, but rather significant realities, I guess it is easier. Porkies and delusion also help.

I really do wonder about those questions. The refusal to answer (and those from last time round) tells me enough - except for the last one, which I really, really don't understand. I'm just asking myself why I care - and realising that I don't.

Apologies to all for the interlude since last night. Done now.

[gbh2] 18/11/2020 13:24

He's been around a long time, I think he's losing or lost it if you're silly reading improbable comments..

[imastu pidgitaswell] 18/11/2020 12:15

sikh - I am really questioning your sanity.

I wrote the post about fundamentals in the day of the trading statement. As that included new information. So I could work out the essentials of earnings after tax and earnings multiples. That wasn't possible before then, as the guidance and information wasn't available. I then reposted it yesterday as I was in the process, after a significant rise, of deciding whether to sell some more and how many.

(Do you even know anything about fundamentals - the earnings, the balance sheet, the liquidity - there is no indication that you do from anything you ever post?)

Any normal person tries to have an interaction and exchange of views/information. You just keep promulgating the same fixed view regardless of company-specific facts. The same old generic negative posts. Seeking to grind people into submission. There is never anything quantitative, or constructive.
What is the matter with you?


Now:

Have you ever bought any of these shares?
Have you ever gone short of these shares?
If so to either, when?
If no to either, why are you here?

[gbh2] 18/11/2020 11:45

Cupra Kid -FILTERED, LOL

[sikhthetech] 18/11/2020 11:34

Brokers, HBs, Estate Agents all saying similar about Stamp Duty hol/Help to Buy.

Read what the HBs say about Help to Buy, Stamp Duty hol, unemployment...
Both Stamp Duty Hol and Help to Buy for 2nd homes ends March 31st, 4 months away and due to avg time to sell, the deadline to take advantage already here.


The real test for housing market and specifically HBs is yet to be play out.

Help to buy for 2nd homes ending.
Stamp Duty hol ending.
Furlough ending.
Investors pulling out of housing market.
Ongoing CMA investigation into leasehold scandal.
Brexit.



TW:
"Looking ahead, we expect the market to support robust sales rates and for prices of new build homes to remain supportive. We are pleased to note the Government's ongoing support for the housing market, home ownership and, specifically, first time buyers."


CRST/Bellway.
Housebuilder Bellway restores dividend as the stamp duty holiday lifts summer house sales sharply Bellway's reservations shot up 30.6% in the first nine weeks from August 1

"The FTSE 250 group said the stamp duty cut introduced in early July has boosted 'consumer confidence,' as has the Help-to-Buy shared equity scheme and a revival in the used property market."




"The release of pent-up demand, whether due to customers putting off moving because of Brexit uncertainty or subsequent COVID-19 disruption, and the benefits of the Stamp Duty holiday, have supported near-term confidence levels in the housing market."

" We are also appreciative of the Government moving quickly to reopen the sector and taking the decision to temporarily suspend Stamp Duty. Confidence in moving home and stability of house prices will be a critical part of a successful economic recovery from this pandemic."

[jugears] 18/11/2020 11:12

Of course he didn't buy any, he spends to much time believing everything in the press & dwelling on it, Perhaps should have taken his own advice & bought below a pound, the problem is he thought they were going lower & I new they were going higher, TBF anything below £1.70 here is a bargain long term.