Taylor Wimpey Share Discussion Threads

[sikhthetech] 05/11/2020 17:03

Over the past 6 months, HBs have clearly been for trading and not for holding, hoping they will eventually make a profit in 5, 10, 20yrs time.

Why buy at 170p when I believed these going substantially lower?

The question is what will happen over the short, medium and long term.
The markets are volatile and so will ftse 100 companies, today's rise is down to the US opening higher and Uk govn extending furlough.

Over the next few days, there's US Election results and HB reporting.. What will be important from the update is how HBs see Help to Buy and Stamp Duty hol ending effecting them. Then there's still brexit.
It will also be interesting as to what other challenges they see.

HBs have been really busy to complete before both Help to Buy for 2nd homes and SD hol ends on 31st March, less than 5 months time..

[disneydonald] 05/11/2020 16:50

Imastu. The previous guidance for year end cash was £550M - £750M depending on timing of land payments. They will update this guidance on the trading update.

RDW trading update tomorrow, which I guess will continue the good news. Also, by tomorrow I guess Biden will be called in a winning position, so should be another decent day tomorrow.

Bodes well that continuing to finish (almost) on days high for last three days. Good signal of rerating about to get underway.

[imastu pidgitaswell] 05/11/2020 16:43

I don't disagree, but let's be honest, there was a cumulative 40% or so available since the 98p lows - OK while it wasn't likely that you would get all of that, certainly 30-35% wasn't too difficult, which to me is a lot better than 20%.

And if you can do that several times, you get to your 50-100% target quite quickly.

Anyway, I think a few of us do both - hold some, trade some. There is no law saying you can't do both.

[imastu pidgitaswell] 05/11/2020 16:37

Mmm, just musing, and other opinions are good. Funnily enough if anything I think long term I do know (up), it's short term that is more difficult.

I did in the end do what I always do, sold a few and kept some of the ones in profit, and obviously kept the ones not yet in profit.

One number I will be keen to see in the trading statement, and I don't know if we will, is the net cash balance.

[1carus] 05/11/2020 16:34

imastu.... the trend is your friend. If you think the update is going to be good on the 11th.. hold. If not sell. Building like there is not tomorrow. Sales in houses look good. I don't work in the supply chain, but everyone I know who is are maxed out like Jug says. Long term who knows, but over the last 6 months the builders have been at it for sure. Plus I think it will rise up to the announcement, so you could sell the day before to lock it in.

[gbh2] 05/11/2020 16:33

"If you believe & have faith in the companies you invest, then it is irrelevant what others say,"

I whole heartedly agree Jugs, which is why I wouldn't waste my time trying to convince anyone they were wrong and I am right :)

[jugears] 05/11/2020 16:27

Sikh,If anyone buys on advice in my posts then more fool them, DYOR, I know exactly why I am here! If you expected them to go to a pound then you obviously bought some so must be enjoying your 20 plus % profit???? but of course you didn't buy any did you that's why you try & de ramp the shares ,on the other hand I do have a substantial amount of shares here because I believe we have a very good future & therefore have know reason not to post positively in response to your very negative posts.
imatsu, we are entering what I call higher highs & higher lows syndrome, I did say yesterday that a little birdie had told me these were going to start going up again!
Thats why I added a few more yesterday morning.

[eriktherock] 05/11/2020 15:43

MGNS thread resurrected here >

[imastu pidgitaswell] 05/11/2020 15:35

That is an extraordinary swing in a little over a week - nearly 20% down, and all the way back up again. And very lucrative.

Taken a good chunk of it, from buying a lot at 106 and 105 (and posting it on here - no hindsight trading) after selling a lot of the previous swing up to 120-odd from sub 100 (also posted on here, both the buys sub 100 and the sells over 120).

Now, what do we do here - sell those again on the hope of a third swing, or keep as they look to be going higher? I still have a lot and will have a lot up to 160 or so (first buy was around 145), so won't be too bothered if it does carry on up - and will be happy if it goes back down again if I do take the profits here or hereabouts.

Currently (intraday) above the 120 level that was the previous high. And made a higher low at around 105 than before (98).

Basically, do we think it's going up or down over the next few days - CRST trading statement and others to come, BoE QE, versus caution, market uncertainty, US uncertainty and potential market problems?

[sikhthetech] 05/11/2020 15:16

Jug,
"I strongly believe that that there is enough demand to support the housing market with out the need for help from the government"

That's completely opposite from what the HBs are saying. I prefer to believe the official newsflow from HBs than BB posters.


Housebuilder Bellway restores dividend as the stamp duty holiday lifts summer house sales sharply
Bellway's reservations shot up 30.6% in the first nine weeks from August 1

"The FTSE 250 group said the stamp duty cut introduced in early July has boosted 'consumer confidence,' as has the Help-to-Buy shared equity scheme and a revival in the used property market."

[sikhthetech] 05/11/2020 15:09

Jug
"If you believe & have faith in the companies you invest, then it is irrelevant what others say"

But your posting clearly shows it does bother you when others post. Otherwise why not just load up, sit back and wait for the returns to come in? Spend the time addressing those problems you claim your business have, staff shortages, too busy, working 18hrs a day etc


What's wrong with just taking a position and waiting to see how it plays out? Why try so hard to persuade others into buying off the back of dubious speculation? Is it just so you can get out on an artificial spike and onto the next big thing?

Doesn't make sense, does it?


Best wait until the results next week to see what they have to say about Help to Buy and Stamp Duty hol.

[jugears] 05/11/2020 15:00

If you believe & have faith in the companies you invest, then it is irrelevant what others say, I strongly believe that that there is enough demand to support the housing market with out the need for help from the government, Despite all the turmoil at the moment the very simple fact is that the country is not & doesn't have the ability to produce enough homes for the future, if you are not meeting demand there is only one way house prices will move. I don't think ending stamp duty Holiday & h2b On second homes will make very much difference to house sales, if anything we need the markets to soften to give hb's a chance to keep up with demand,of course the general conception is that house prices fall in a recession, but the last 3 recessions we have seen high interest rates, now they are rock bottom & extremely unlikely to go above 1% in the next decade, above that & we might see the markets crash but my feeling is that house prices will continue creeping up over the next 4-5 years, with an ever growing population (up nearly 7 million since the last recession)that need to be housed & is doesn't take much to calculate that we are not building anywhere near a sufficient quantity of houses & this is getting a bigger every year so loosing 3 months of supply is imo devastating. I would quite happily get rid of any of my share except this one, this is the one company I see out of all of my portfolio that has the greatest future prospects despite the current performance of the share price that has been typicaly manipulated down!

[cl0ckw0rk0range] 05/11/2020 13:59

I didn't realise that you couldn't ban subscription holders from threads I guess that makes sense why so many absolute tools are subscription holder for that one single reason, they can post anywhere without rebuttal.Seems a bit much just to make your point but they guy does the same thing day in day out so he might as well pay for the privilege!Very sad.

[bricktycoon] 05/11/2020 13:50

THIS DOG HAS BOUNCED ON THE ELECTION IT WILL CRASH BELOW 10 P VERY SOON

[jugears] 05/11/2020 13:17

Most people will buy the house they want at whatever the cost if it is going to be there home, anyone with half an ounce of brains will know exactly where house prices will be in 10/15 years time & I can guarantee that unless we build twice as many houses a lot more than know, if it is going to be a long term home you are not going to loose money look at all the other housing crashes in the last 40 years, I bought a terraced house for 60K & sold it 10 years later for 45K (first & only time I have lost Money on a property) That house is now worth £275k, the house I replaced it with cost 72k & sold that 8 years later for 190k Right at the end of the last housing boom, 12 months later I bought a house twice the size for 155k & now worth 300k ( these are properties I have rented out) I don't think 15 grand makes a lot of financial difference if you are spending upwards of 450k. If I see a house I want to buy & I know its going to double in value in twenty years I would not be worried about saving 15K ,Imo another lock down lasting a few months should just about see more pent up buying which IMO is the major factor pushing housing at the moment, Helping Tw to make record sales next year.

[cl0ckw0rk0range] 04/11/2020 22:01

Try LSE though they are quite trigger happy in deleting posts and do tend to favour paying members.

[cl0ckw0rk0range] 04/11/2020 22:00

Well perhaps but I find it incredibly hypocritical that he posts here daily bashing yet won't allow any similar comments on stock they are invested in and on threads they control for want of a better term.

[gbh2] 04/11/2020 20:22

Set up a Guild if you're that keen to control who writes what on a thread.

Or simply learn to use the Filter, it's Effective, Free and keeps Trolls out of sight.

[bricktycoon] 04/11/2020 19:49

boring election bounce reality will bite zero sales flooded sites