Taylor Wimpey Share Discussion Threads

[clarky5150] 16/9/2020 08:58

Profits of Redrow down 66%. Dividend reintroduced. I’ve not read the release in full but looking at the market reaction to the whole sector it seems they need to employ a new report writer.

[gbh2] 16/9/2020 08:24

Picked up a few with profit from elsewhere.

[imastu pidgitaswell] 16/9/2020 08:06

No idea what this price is about - can't place an order. So frustrating.

[imastu pidgitaswell] 16/9/2020 07:12

i think it was probably sikh, but I have him filtered, so I'm not sure.

Mind you, it could have been me - that post from yesterday close is pretty twaddle...

[zac0_4] 15/9/2020 23:21

cLOckwOrkOrange - Are your comments aimed at me?

[cl0ckw0rk0range] 15/9/2020 20:57

So just because you sold at £1.43 at a loss but hold some managed funds that are up at the moment that makes you a seasoned investor? LOL sorry but they shouldn't allow people like you to access the markets.

[cl0ckw0rk0range] 15/9/2020 20:54

Absolute twaddle as per usual.

[imastu pidgitaswell] 15/9/2020 16:32

A nice candle. For a change.

Long way to go, but it's a start. As Billy Connolly said, never judge a man until you have walked a mile in his shoes. At least then you'll have his shoes...

Manana.

[disneydonald] 15/9/2020 16:21

Jugs. I was speaking in the context of Central London. I haven't done any analysis outside CL as I expect Wimps (and most other builders) will sell anything they can build outside CL this year at target, or slightly above forecast margin. It's all about getting units over the line (exchanged contracts) initially for trading update and then actual end of year.

Shrek. Leasehold issue is not ongoing, as far as leases being sold on by builders of single family homes. Using PPI as an analogy is not relevant, totally different scale and prevalence. Wimps projection of £30m outstanding at year end is approximately 25% remaining to settle. Some of this will never get settled for various reason, death, lack of interest etc. So , next year will probably see most the remaining get settled, with a few dribbling on for a number of years. The CMA review will get bogged down with all the stakeholders involved, Solicitors (advising clients, or not as the case may be), originators (Builders), purchasers of these leases (Aviva etc), individual house purchasers (most feigning ignorance and looking for a quick buck), blocks of flats (entirely different freeholder terms and conditions than single family homes).

[sikhthetech] 15/9/2020 15:52

Jug

"I am surprised that all banks don't insist that everyone has ppi why shouldn't the banks protect them selves???"


How were the banks protecting themselves.
It was a separate product which customers were pressurised into signing up to. In a lot of cases customers would not been able to claim because of the exclusions. It's called mis-selling.

High street Banks charge 49.9% on overdrafts and 25-40% on credit cards. The base rate is 0.25%. They have secured and unsecured lending. That is how they protect themselves.

[50plus] 15/9/2020 15:05

should have been in wmh imastu, no boredom today :)

[sikhthetech] 15/9/2020 15:03

The leasehold scandal won't be over anytime soon. You can't simply throw money at it after you've been caught and hope it goes away. The CMA investigation is proof that it is an ongoing problem.

The banks made initial provisions when PPI was exposed but that grew significantly over the years.
The reputational damage lasts a lot longer than any financial hit.


ONS figures out today show unemployment has increased. Crucially there are still millions on furlough and their fate will be known from this Thursday onwards, over a period of weeks.

Covid infections are still running at over 3000 daily with many new restrictions coming into force. There is no vaccine in sight and significant problems with testing have been reported.


For TW I think the £500m placing at 145p was unfortunate bad timing. They bought premium land and then weeks later the Gov announced that they will allow easier building on land without planning permission. Therefore, land with planning permission isn't 'premium' as it used to be.

[jugears] 15/9/2020 14:55

Dd, I assume you mean Tw ar discounting the 1-2 million houses as they are not discounting properties anywhere else in the country ,are you sure your facts are right?

[imastu pidgitaswell] 15/9/2020 14:10

First paragraph - yes, you're right. Just paranoid (and bored) - although I haven't see one as compressed timewise as that, only TW.'s. Still think the idea that institutional investors - who after all, are just employees of those institutions who should be managing for the benefit of their clients and not taking decisions for any other reasons - dumping stock is a kind of arrogance.

Second - yes, I have said that all along. Non-issue.

In fact, yes to the rest of it. Bored...

:-)

[disneydonald] 15/9/2020 14:03

Imastu. I suspect that you are over thinking re share issue. Quite a few businesses have used this approach to issue shares quickly during the COVID turbulence. More traditional rights issues take weeks, and given market volatility they would be difficult to get away. Don't forget, "traders" don't really care whether a share is moving up, or down, they are well able to exploit opportunities either way. However, I do suspect that some of the institutional investors will be "disappointed" with what they were told at the issue, and what transpired at the half year update a few weeks later. I suspect Wimps were opportunistic here, and probable left a bad taste in some institutional mouths and may have caused some dumping of stock. Add to this the leasehold news which is generally perceived as bad news, and most analysts are unsure and unwilling to make confident predictions, which in turn supports the "glass half full" scenario.

I just checked the official communication re leaseholds. Originally (year end 2017), £130m was taken as an exceptional, (2018 year end) this was carried as £102m and (2019 year end) £71m was carried with an estimation of £40m to be settled during 2020. The Auditors have reviewed this, and worked through the management provided estimates and ongoing settlements and decided that these figures are reasonable with no cause for concern. This should then leave Wimps with around £30m of obligations left to settle at the end of 2020 to close the matter for all previous leasehold sales. I don't think that there is much risk for this leasehold issue to deteriorate any further, so the market has probably over reacted IMHO. Lazy Analysts.

However, we are where we are, and we know its the Market that sets the share price. I am not sure Wimps will start the recovery until things settle and we get a better view of year end guidance. This will come with the late October trading update. Central London still slow in the £1 - £2m categories but the £500 - 900K units are going very well. Wimps are now pricing to shift, as they need to move as many as possible units (exchanged contracts) to report in late October, in order to guide for year end revenue / margin etc. Hopefully, the margin will not deteriorate too much. Hopefully RDW will surprise the Market to the upside tomorrow.

Finally, we will know when the market has sensed that we are at the bottom, once Wimps can close at a days high for a few days. Then I believe this will set the start of the recovery. Of course, all IMHO.

[imastu pidgitaswell] 15/9/2020 12:20

"James Thomson, 53, its chief executive, said that “demand is back at pre-Covid levels”.

More than 80 per cent of its customers are first-time buyers with an average age of 29. The housebuilder is not concerned about mortgage lenders becoming more cautious because most of its buyers use the government’s Help to Buy scheme to acquire their homes.

Help to Buy offers buyers with a 5 per cent deposit an interest-free loan for five years of up to 20 per cent of the price, or 40 per cent in London. It is due to run until April 2023, with price caps from next April that MJ Gleeson said would have a minimal impact on sales."


Just a minnow, but just some current real information on the housing market. Keyworkers are not going to be losing their jobs, concerned about Brexit, Covid employment prospects, Help to Buy, etc etc.

[jugears] 15/9/2020 09:47

zaco, I have been fortunate to only invest in rock solid companies & Have only lost money on 2 in 40 years,Baldwins crane hire where I lost 4k & lloyds , But Next/Just Group/Birchin were all 15 baggers, I also made substantial profits from Arcadia/Asda/Safewy/Chloride,Pilkington/Weir Group/Travis Perkins Plus many more,Some I kept for 20 years. Today investors want a quick buck, I would rather wait & hold for the substantial profits even if it takes a long time.I have no plans to sell my current holdings so will probably never benefit me, but in twenty odd years when I die , I have no doubt that my kids will be selling these for a tenner a piece, by which time the avereage house price will be nearer half a million.

[zac0_4] 15/9/2020 09:25

jugears - I sound young?!! I wish!! In my 60's and have been investing for 25+ years. Some wins and some expensive lessons learnt along the way. I think we'll have to agree that we have differing views but so long as we're both happy with our returns then that's all that matters. I wish you well and good luck with your investing.

[jugears] 15/9/2020 00:05

zaco I bought my main holding here at 30p so have still made a very good return,I initially invested 20k into individual shares 40 years ago with reinvesting I have probably made around 7 million ,as a hobby & not something I spend a lot of time at I am very happy with that, but have always preferred to be in charge of my own investments as feel that is what works for me, but well done you have obviously found a niche that works for you & all credit to you,I also have a preference for uk shares only in companies that I know & understand, for reference I never recommend shares on bulletin boards but do stick up for companies I believe in & you only loose money if you sell! With that it is time to head home as I have been at work since 6 this morning!

[jugears] 14/9/2020 23:52

zaco It has f--k all to do do with house price or how much is in the bank,the markets control the share price & when they say its time to go up they will & when they say its time to go down they will, Tw's share price has been manipulated for as long as I have held shares, there is a lot of money to be made here once the uncertainties are out of the way & one by one they will it Just takes time, in 5-10 years Tw's low share price will be forgotten about, My property has averaged 30% in 5 years, my own home has gone up 75% Plus in ten years, history repeats it self again & again, Its no good looking at the current situation & worrying you have to look at where things will be in 5 years plus, & in 5 years plus things will be very different from now, Billions have been taken out of the markets this year perhaps trillions & all of that money will go back in at some point because there is a greed to make money, that's how the world works,I have been investing for long enough to know that. For now IMO nothing will happen to the share price until we see some clarity, but instead of looking for negatives in a companies share price you should view this as a golden buying opportunity for the future because the good times will come back companies will recover & take on staff again by which time it will be to late to pick up cheap shares, Tw share price may be cheap now but unlike other sectors where competition is rife & IMO will take longer for sp's to recover, Tw belong to a sector that has very few competitors in fact only a handful!& this is not going to change in my life time so I am happy to take short term pain for long term gain as I see plenty of future growth here yet, I note you not have included dividend gains in your 45% decline, I know from running a business that getting your figures correct is very important!!!! so shall we say 10% would be more correct? I know many mock me on here but I have invested successfully for 40 years & it takes a lot to rattle my cage, each to our own but long term investing has bought substantial gains for me, being panicked in to selling has never been my thing & believe me I have seen sp's fall on some of my holdings substantially in the past only to recover & double/triple etc in price, shares never go up in a straight line & am very doubtful when people say they have bought at the bottom & sold at the top. from experience there is never a good time to buy or sell, but selling is definitely something I wouldn't even consider now as there is to much buying opportunity out there currently, people say why buy now when they could fall? Its a bit like me investing 250K in a new machine which I have just done, even though demand could fall & it is a substantial investment & dead money until I start to see a return, you have to speculate to accumulate & if you don't speculate you will never accumulate, life is a gamble but all to often I here people that have had good ideas for a business but did nothing about it because they would need to borrow money initially to get started but were afraid of loosing money & investing is no different.I am extremely happy with my investment in Tw & the dividend returns I have had & even more happy that I have topped up with cheap shares, I mean lets be honest a company the size of tw with with a £1.10 share price its a no brainer really isn't it. You sound very young to me,you should have a more positive attitude in life because it will take you a very long way, you don't have to work in life to make a very good living ,I have made as much from shares as my company has made & could have easily packed up work years ago.

[zac0_4] 14/9/2020 23:26

Jugears - I quite admire your belief here and also your long-term investment horizon. But you let yourself down when, just because somebody has a different viewpoint, you get personal. Take your response to me "if you can't see that should you really be investing in the first place????" Well, actually, yes I should. Here's the performance over the last 6 months of 3 of my holdings over your TW holding. L&G Global Technology +38%, Rathbone Global Opps +29%, LF Blue Whale Growth +31% and TW -36%. Your way is not always the right way!! I was a holder here but sold at £1.42