Taylor Wimpey Share Discussion Threads

[essentialinvestor] 14/9/2020 23:17

100% agree with that zac.

[zac0_4] 14/9/2020 23:08

To youngsters just setting out on investing - before you buy a single share do the following . . . pick a well managed global equity fund, set up a direct debit to invest every month, every month without fail, year upon year upon year, never panic, never sell, and watch your investment grow over the long-term! Only when you've done that should you get involved with investing in single shares . . . especially those recommended on bulletin boards!!!!

[jugears] 14/9/2020 23:04

Zaco the waco this is a perfect investment for long term holders its also not the only company to fall, if you look you will find many companies that have fallen as much because as usual the markets have been oversold, if you can't see that should you really be investing in the first place????. opportunities like now don't come a long very often you just need a bit of balls & patience which evidently most on here don't have!Investors will return & then most of you will regret not buying when you had the chance, now how many times have I heard that in the last 40 years? What a bunch of loosers, never mind you will get it one day but probably to late then, of course buy which time I will be laughing all the way to the bank, In some ways though I am hoping some of you will be right as I would like to buy another 1/2 million shares in Tw & the cheaper I get them the bigger the reward, Thanks to the House builders my company profits are going to double this year so covid 19 has certainly been the best thing to happen to my company in the 40 years that I have been running it, I need to take on new staff & pay very good wages but struggling to find anyone to take the jobs on offer, yet the country is supposed to be seeing millions unemployed but of course that is just speculation at the moment, from where I am sitting still at my office desk you would't think the country was experiencing any problems at the moment, we are taking orders for sites that haven't even started yet & some won't until next October at the earliest, My view on this is that a lot of developments that were delayed last year are now being signed off, I always new at the start of the year that the next 18 months would be good with 4 times the enquiries from December to March than the previous year & for a few weeks at the start of lock down when the phone didn't ring I thought we could be in trouble but how wrong I was, my current order book has beaten even my wildest of expectations & judging buy the amount of enquiries coming in isn't going to stop anytime soon, something echoed by all of my suppliers & customers a like.perhaps being in the real world where people just get on & make the most of a situation I have a different perspective than most.

[zac0_4] 14/9/2020 22:46

I must admit I admire your confidence! House prices have risen by 15% over the last 5 years yet TW share price has declined by 45%! I don't think it's as straightforward as you like to think.

[jugears] 14/9/2020 22:34

Well I will still be in Tw in ten years so I won't be loosing anything, that I am very sure about!any slump short term is just going to increase house prices further down the line when demand comes back & there wont be the houses built to meet that demand IMCO house prices will increase by 30 percent in the next 5 years probably sooner if the all ready lack of supply is not sorted soon & as I have said many times before the loss of 20% of new build houses this year will take ten years to make up & if the same was to happen next year then we will never be able to build enough house to meet any government targets, so I think hb's are going to be very busy & until that shortfall is filled I'm afraid there is not going to be much chance of first time buyers getting on the property ladder because property investors that buy to let will see to that.I'm looking forward to the reinstatement of dividends sooner rather than later & not expecting a no deal brexit to be any deter-ant to would-be buyers as most people in the real world are expecting that outcome already, I have been expecting a no deal all along.

[zac0_4] 14/9/2020 22:19

With all the positive views on the housing sector on this bulletin board I'm amazed how this company has lost 53% of its value over the last 7 months!!!! It needs to deliver 115% growth from here to get back to its February level! And this is a good investment for long term holders . . . do me a favour!!!!!

[pander45] 14/9/2020 22:16

What a hideous looking chart....oooofff.

[thelongandtheshortandthetall] 14/9/2020 21:40

Fortune favours the br... Positive :)

[buywell3] 14/9/2020 21:33

Anyone that does not consider the -ve side of an investment

Is IMO going to most likely lose money in such a MACRO event that markets are currently going through.

In fact buywell will posit more

The -ve case should IMO be considered FIRST

[jugears] 14/9/2020 21:25

Sikh just likes to look on bad side of everything, but I am a positive person & can see the positives to a situation.

[cl0ckw0rk0range] 14/9/2020 21:00

I don't know why you bother engaging they are clearly agenda driven.

[jugears] 14/9/2020 20:54

Sikh I was thinking more a long the lines of people buying in June

Both the temporary Stamp Duty Holiday and Help to Buy for 2nd property buyers come to end at the same time, March, in 6 months time. Yes & it will be very interesting when my view is confirmed that Stamp duty holiday & buy to let whilst both desirable haven't necessarily helped anyone that wouldn't have bought anyway,there are plenty of people who have money to buy one or multiple properties with or without the above & increasing demand for rental property & that demand will grow substantially, good for people that can buy to rent & in my opinion these are the people that will push house prices & demand, not good for first time buyers but then I suspect that the government will step in with a different type of help to buy. At the moment I just don't see a slump in sales or prices anywhere on the horizon yet.The end of stamp duty holiday & Help to buy may cause a wobble for a few months but IMO we are a long way from a slump , I don't even think we are going to see this mass unemployment either,The country is going back to work, with many sectors struggling to meet demand.

[sikhthetech] 14/9/2020 20:04

Jug

"surely a house sale in August is not counted until payed for so August figure would be sales in say June/July,"


The temporary Stamp Duty holiday was effective from 8th July and sales increased in Aug, so as you say people starting looking/buying in July.

It covers 1st buyers and second properties.

"Yes. Second properties under £500,000 would have had to pay a 5-8% surcharge but as of today pay only 3%."




"Property sales soar on stamp duty holiday"



Both the temporary Stamp Duty Holiday and Help to Buy for 2nd property buyers come to end at the same time, March, in 6 months time.

[steeplejack] 14/9/2020 19:39

Covid has made people reevaluate their priorities.The attractions of living in a major conurbation are severely diminished if all the city's attractions are closed.It's worse still if you're living in a flat with no garden,locked in with the children.As a result (prompted by the probability of more time being spent working at home )the property market has become pretty active and the stamp duty holiday has further focused people's attention on potentially making a lifestyle choice move.How long this persists,vaccines etc,is anyone's guess.I still hold to view that the government is going to have to actively encourage a healthy house building market in Keynesian style.

[sikhthetech] 14/9/2020 14:17

Jug

"whilst stamp duty holidays may have helped the housing market IMO pent up demand is driving it"

No, it's the temporary Stamp Duty holiday which is driving demand.


Both Nationwide and Rightmove said sales increased in Aug. That was after the temporary Stamp Duty Holiday was introduced. Therefore, the recent spike is on the back of the Stamp Duty Holiday


"Property sales soar on stamp duty holiday"

[hernando2] 14/9/2020 14:13

Jug. Your bull case makes perfect sense if all the factors pan out, as for me i was a big holder for the dividend and capital growth, went in big at the brexit vote.

Prior to that someone who worked there told me to fill my boots at 30p ignored than advice sadly. ( Also got told by someone who knew Ocado quite well to get in at around a pound), ignored that as well sadly!!

I sold out of TW at much higher levels than today and have since bought a few at around 117.

I would rather miss a 20p jump if news is good than risk a 20p fall if its not as good as hoped.

GL on your strategy.

[jugears] 14/9/2020 13:31

Hernado I can get 3 times as much for a private job than I can supplying to hb's & construction sites, But with hb's & construction we earn the money on volume & not one-offs, If you are house bashing as we call it in the trade, it is unlikely you will see rates rise, different ball game all together, but rates do rise if demand is there so that should tell you something about the state of the industry, whilst stamp duty holidays may have helped the housing market IMO pent up demand is driving it & those that have money IMO are little interested in Covid19 & Brexit, the feed back I am getting from site has become more positive week on week & I have now decided that over the next 6 months to double my long term investment in TW.
My decision for this is that despite the threat of a no deal Brexit & 2nd phase of covid 19 there is a healthy appetite to to buy houses, As prices are rising & houses selling faster this just encourages more people to buy as they don't want to miss the boat , I assume that all those on furlough would not be able to get a mortgage at the moment? so potentially more customers to add to the future list of buyers, add to this a supposedly 20% drop in new houses being built this year then I think this alone is going to create a mass shortage of new properties for a long time into the future, I am not convinced that stamp duty holiday is contributing to demand as some houses in my village have all ready risen more this year than stamp duty would have cost, I also think that redundancies will effect the young & low paid more than skilled workers & the young & low paid don't buy houses they rent !

[essentialinvestor] 14/9/2020 12:57

hernando, fwiw agree with the other points you make.

In any case we can all have opinions and reasons, but the price is the price.
And that's under £1.10 atm.

I've got this on a watchlist to buy back in.

[hernando2] 14/9/2020 12:53

Thats interesting on the wages side, I live on the south coast and charges for getting work done on your home are rising.

My next door neighbour is a small builder and he was saying getting people of the right quality for jobs is becoming increasing difficult and wage expectations are rising.

Part of the reason is that you can get easier work on the big sites, rather than going from a house renovation here to an extension there.

[sikhthetech] 14/9/2020 12:26

The fact the govn introduced a temporary Stamp Duty Holiday to try and kick start the housing market says a lot.

The events over the past week are increasing risk of 'no deal brexit' and a 2nd covid wave.
Israel has announced a 2nd lockdown and UK govn have announced more restrictions starting today.

Both No deal brexit and Covid were concerns mentioned by the HBs.

I think a 14% house price drop is too optimistic, I think more like 30%, from peak to trough over a period of couple years.

[jugears] 14/9/2020 12:21

Hernando, Most contractors are paying less to there subcontractors than a year ago, & Doesn't appear to be any material price increases or shortages, as for winter, this will not effect building it never does unless we have a prolonged & severe winter, I have been to many a site Knee deep in water & they are still bricklaying & putting roofs on!

[jugears] 14/9/2020 12:13

IP I take everything in the times with a pinch of salt, houses are selling faster now than at anytime in the last three years, A lot of people converting cash to property for income now & there is a lot of people with plenty of spare cash, IMO we may see prices softening but I'm not expecting that to last or be by very much & not by anywhere near the predictions, It seems to me that everyone wants to get on the property ladder at what ever the cost at the moment. I am expecting Tw to report stronger next time & bring dividend plans forward, I think there last trading statement was far to cautious & to early to make future predictions.

[hernando2] 14/9/2020 12:04

I think the weakness is about ,

Efficiency- i think the last mention was that it is about 80% of last year, IE pre-covid if memory serves..but i could be wrong.

Profit margins- I would argue/ that labour costs will be rising due to full employment available for contract workers in the business leading to rising wages, also the cost of materials may be under pressure upwards. Additionally the operating profit achieved in the last few years have been IMO, at the top of the range of what would be deemed acceptable. Around 20% is about right.

Perhaps there is scope for price rises to offset that, but mortgage availability will come into play if lenders deem those price rises to be a step too far.

The ordinary dividend will need to be re-started and we will need to know at what level.

Finally we have the winter coming, good weather bad weather? Covid better or worse?

I think it's too difficult to call a turnaround in the share price until we get some more information from the company, regarding efficiency, margins and Dividend.

[imastu pidgitaswell] 14/9/2020 11:35

There was a report by some think tank this morning predicting a 14% fall in house prices next year. Seems a little precise (not 15%?) and it was a worst case scenario, as well as being based on little but extrapolated theoretical metrics, but never underestimate the desire of headline writers to take stuff out of context.

It is what it is - everyone has a choice to buy, sell or do nothing.