 dvd, When you say a record number of houses for sale on right move what year are you comparing it to,I know its considerably less than covid & considerably less than 2019, I also know that looking across Derbyshire/Leicestershire & Nottinghamdshire its down about 17% on pre covid levels, perhaps you could explain? as far as Trump is concerned I doubt it will have any impact on the uk economy if people want our goods desperately then they will pay the price as we both buy & sell goods to the USA then in my opinion it would be unwise to implement tariffs, however Trump clearly has a dislike for Labour.
As with all companies you make money on volume not individual sales, note the word average & there comment about sales in the south were slower, I suspect that this year they will build less in the south & more up country where its more profitable,
I think rates though will fall by at leas 1% this year, any job losses will be most felt at the lower end of the market, these are the people that wouldn't buy a house anyway so again little impact IMEO. I assume you are quite young & inexperienced, let me give you some advice,DanVD If your gut feeling tells you TW are at the bottom then this is the time to buy(not short) & pay for the shares with money you are not going to need, nothing is guaranteed but personally & from many years experience I cannot for the life of me see any reason why the share price is not over £1.50, it may stay her for a while, it may even fall a bit, but once the press start reflecting on the housing market recovering & they will at some point especially when rates start to fall,then the share price will rise, but my guess is that the share price will drift higher from now, as we seem to have this trading range from a pound to 1.70 & in my opinion only I think this time we will breach that, many investors make the big mistake of watching the share price fall, hit the bottom & then miss out buying on the way up Expecting it to be a dead cat bounce, Never take any notice of the markets because they always over react & times it by two, Investment magazines, Investment trusts & national papers are in the game for their own benefit, not yours! Remember as well that not all shares are as spectacular as RR, I always wanted them in my portfolio but were far to expensive in my opinion, Buying at 89p did seem a bargain & there were many times I wanted to sell & in the end did for £5.85 & then regretted it & bought half back at £5.40, years ago a successful investor in my village told me to go to the supermarket & see what products people were buying & that would be a good indicator as to what companies I should invest in. I like house builders because there really are just a handful of builders that produce the majority of new homes, its very difficult for start ups to become mass producers of homes & smaller builders to not have the capacity, finances or buying power to compete , interest rates are about to fall & there is a growing shortage of NEW homes,H2B ending has had minimal effect on the housing market & neither has high interest rates, My friend was saying the other evening that people are now putting down much larger deposits & taking out smaller mortgages ( I am shore our resident housing expert can clarify this as being a national trend or not?) he attributes this to people saving more during covid & since plus interest amounted on this money whilst rates are high. I would stick my neck on the block & say there has never been a better time to buy house builders for the recovery. |
Skinny
Thanks for that info
I too had 130 as a target but the proviso is that 108 has to hold
Quite content to idly watch at moment while I await the third part of my buy order from last week to fall into place
but it was a close run thing |
I'm glad for you too bacaruda. I hope you've not invested too much, because market interest seems to be waning after all the pumping; the dumping seems to be starting again. The chart seems to be showing a little 'dead-cat bounce'. |
One of my regrets is not buying Rolls Royce, it was something I kept putting off for some reason, anyway, I'm so glad I'm invested in the best listed house builder and I'm looking forward to a bright and profitable future |
A quick update from the Telegraph, never guilty of talking the country down:
THE JOB MARKET GLOOM THAT SIGNALS A LOOMING RECESSION
A post-Budget hiring downturn presents a stark warning of Britain’s fading economic fortunes. |
Do you really believe that Trump will have a benign effect on the UK economy? Do you really believe that inflation will fall next year and interest rates with it? And do you really believe that the Labour govt will be able to steer the UK to economic growth - that's not what you've been saying on here. |
You cannot escape the basic economic arithmetic slugar$e.
TW's trading update shows lower selling prices like all of the housebuilders; it's increasingly likely that we have seen the peak and the stories that we are now seeing about falling actual sale prices from Nationwide and all of the other listed house-builders, and the widespread reduction in prices being applied by sellers this month are the beginning of a significant reduction in property values.
This would be the logical result of several 'supportive factors' for house prices being removed almost simultaneously:
*Higher interest rates
*No government subsidies for buyers
*Removal of tax incentives for landlords
*Imposition of higher taxes (stamp duty) for buyers
*Higher living costs
Lower selling prices will crush TW's profit margin and further reduce its cash. If we also add in a recession, mild or severe, the effects will be amplified and the likelihood of a property crash will rise significantly as forced sellers attempt to offload property in a hurry due to unemployment or simply unaffordable interest payments. The housing market is walking a tightrope. |
A lot of houses for sale on rightmove. A record number in fact. Doesn't seem to be any 'shortage'.
All the listed builders have reduced their output. Plenty of independents building houses. In fact they build the majority of new homes in the UK.
I see that everyone ramping TW is saying 'wait for recovery' but it could be a very long wait. And as mughead has pointed out, the brokers can't be trusted and their crystal balls are no better than anyone else's.
Holding out for lower interest rates, hoping that that will be enough, has so far proven to be wrong twice now. House values have become ultra-inflated and the veil has fallen from everyone's eyes. The realisation that a small rise in interest rates can add hundreds to a monthly mortgage payment has caused mortgage behaviour to change. |
All the house builders set targets for the number of houses they were going to build & all those houses have been sold,the later part of last year seems to have been when sales pick up, I would say that lowering of interest rates was a major factor, sickly doesn't agree but perhaps he doesn't realise that if you buy a new home its going to be 6-12 months before you actually complete so would not have been accountable straight away, as rates fall it makes buying a new house more affordable to more people, more buyers means more demand, more demand means higher prices, its a bit like shares once prices show signs of picking up more buyers rush to the market through fear of missing out & so demand & prices continue to rise & that is exactly what is starting to happen, forget the actual price of houses & cost of living they are irrelevant, its the actual monthly repayment that is important.
Tw has risen fast from this level many times before & for what ever reasons it will again. IMEO this will show a 50% return by summer. |
FWIW and take your pick :-
Peel Hunt raises Taylor Wimpey to 'add' (hold) - price target 130 (145) pence
----------
RBC cuts Taylor Wimpey price target to 155 (175) pence - 'outperform' |
The best choice I would say IMEO |
Aarin Chiekrie, equity analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown, said: 'Taylor Wimpey remains on solid ground, despite a steep share price decline in the final months of 2024 as the UK Budget, sticky mortgage rates and economic fears weighed on the whole sector.
Housebuilders beat new home forecasts despite economic weakness
'With the current economic uncertainty, there's likely to be plenty of ups and downs in the short term.
'But for investors looking for exposure to the sector at an attractive valuation and a nice income stream while they wait for a recovery, Taylor Wimpey looks like a strong choice.' |
Fund % short change Date changed
Point72 Europe (London) LLP 1.01% 0.11% 15 Jan 2025
Total 1.01% |
Never panic sell, first rule of investing, these are worth 1.50 minimum
I think there will be more bad news to come a VTY |
Slugdroppings
“I will be there all the way because my shares are bought & paid for, anything below 1.50 represents exceptional value here’
And what if TW dilute via another prudent placing ? What if the competition watchdog finds they’ve been fixing prices? What if the freeholds turn out not to be fake ? What if build cost inflation rises? Too many what if uncertainties imv. I got caught up in your positivity at 1.11p, now have to consider selling at a loss. At least VTY is back over 600, so will see how it goes here for the foreseeable 20 minutes |
Jd? Harsh
But a valid exit strategy.
“I've done exceptionally well , a bit up & down but then she's had a lot to deal”
She deserves a medal
“I love a good roller coster”
Don’t they finish on the floor? |
Told? Lol the share price has dipped along with all other shares, along with market centiment, this is the fourth time Tw has fallen & the 5th time I have bought cheap shares, what can you tell me that I don't already now apart from the fact that yes you've guest it the share price will recover again, as for out come I really wasn't aware that you could see into the future? I'm afraid the OUTCOME hasn't happened yet but it's coming & it's coming my way soon, perhaps you are just young & gullible enough to think this is a one way ticket to oblivion? It's actually IMEO the start of a very long upwards path I will be there all the way because my shares are bought & paid for, anything below 1.50 represents exceptional value here you know & I definately know it
Sicklywicklydodietoday obviously can't answer how much a building plot costs, the average is circa 120k obviously a whole site would be cheaper than that but I think 70 to 100k would be about right. |
And another thing - if you're taking a '10-year view' wtaf are you doing on here giving us your 10 minute view throughout the day? |
Also jugdeath, it's fine saying that you're not interested in what people say, and that you're on old dog who doesn't know any tricks, and that you should really be put down so that you don't continue to suffer with TW agony, but YOU WERE TOLD WHAT WOULD HAPPEN TO THE SHAREPRICE HERE AND GIVEN SOLID EVIDENCE OVER SEVERAL MONTHS. Are you really proud of your ability to act like an idiot when sensible people were telling you what the outcome would be? You're proud of that? |
It means a lot. |
Are you sure you don't mean 'potential losses' over the next 12/18 months?
Do you even know what 'exponential' means? C'mon slugbreath, admit you don't.
And is your 'estate agent' the same bloke who has given you such terrible advice since you started buying at 150p, 140p, 130p and 120p?
How're you going to feel if this hits 90p next week? |
May as will close the long position tomorrow. Jug’s mate Warren is clearly FOS |
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